Can we get a mulligan? At this point, if you are resigned to just giving up, it’s perfectly understandable. The hope is that you are one of the few remaining in your survivor pools, but don’t feel bad if you are not. Ultimately, it quickly became second chance season for the majority. Regardless, we are not giving up and we are here to stay for the rest of the season. With that being said, let’s take a look at the games we are targeting for our Week 4 NFL Survivor Picks.
How Did We Do?
Maybe the solution here is to take the reverse of our initial picks? Or just to disregard any favorites? Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, there is one lesson that we have learned. Take whatever you have learned, and toss it out the window.
The week began well as the Jets delivered a resounding defeat to the Patriots. For both teams, it was an uncharacteristic performance from years past. What a difference having a quarterback makes for New York as Aaron Rodgers led them to an easy victory.
In a game that featured two teams lacking offensive weapons, the 49ers got off to a quick start against the Rams. Unfortunately, that didn’t hold and Los Angeles pulled off the upset in their home opener.
The Broncos were another team that secured their first victory of the season, and this came against the previously undefeated Tampa Bay team. In general, the Buccaneers crashed down to earth and looked far from a team that was 2-0. Baker Mayfield was sacked seven times and the Buccaneers couldn’t get anything going on either side of the ball while failing to execute.
What might have been more surprising, was seeing the Bengals go to 0-3 on the season. It’s hard to put this loss on the offense though as we had a rarity to close out the week. In the first time since 1940 there were no turnovers or punts as the Commanders had an impressive performance to make us 1-3 on the week.
If it’s any consolation, the Panthers led by Andy Dalton did defeat our fade of the week. A week after upsetting Baltimore, the Raiders looked far from the same team as they were defeated at home.
Check out all of our Week 4 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Week 4 NFL Survivor Picks
All we can do is to continue the process. Each week, we’ll continue to pick four games to target along with one that we are fading. They will be ranked in order of our preference along with our lines that we hope to see building off each other each week.
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos | Jets -7.5
We thought that the Broncos were going to be a path toward survivor success last week. Instead, Bo Nix picked up his first career victory as the Buccaneers looked lost. Denver simply dominated Tampa Bay in every facet of the game and didn’t look like the same team that entered the day 0-2. But how good are they?
Ultimately, Nix is still a rookie quarterback who didn’t exactly have a dominant performance. Granted the outcome of the game was never in doubt, but Nix only threw for 216 yards. The rookie did find the end zone, but only on the ground. While we want to give Denver credit for the victory, it was more of Tampa Bay losing the game.
After a rough start to the season from a schedule perspective, the Jets had a nice break. Following a resounding defeat of the Patriots, that feels even better as New York was able to regroup for the rest of their season. Aaron Rodgers threw for two touchdowns for the second straight week as they held the Patriots to just three points. With seven sacks, the Jets did a great job of getting to the quarterback, and they should be able to generate similar pressure against the rookie Nix.
Momentum is working in the favor of New York and their offense is only rounding into form. Chemistry is building across the unit, and we have yet to see Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall truly explode.
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | Texans -7
At least from an against-the-spread perspective, a lot of people were on the Jaguars last week. For a team that entered the year with some level of expectation, they have been bad to begin the season. The thought was that there was no way they would fall to 0-3. Instead, they were blown out in Buffalo in a game that was over in the first quarter.
Houston didn’t fare much better in Week 3, but at this point, we have to take the Vikings seriously. It’s a divisional battle as the Texans return home to face a Jaguars team working on a short week. The Jaguars are allowing the third most passing yards per game while ranking 28th in points allowed at 28.3 per game. This is the perfect situation for CJ Stroud to capitalize. The Texans are middle of the road when it comes to scoring, 18.3 per game, but they do have the sixth most yards gained at 376 per game.
It’s crazy to see the Jaguars starting the season at 0-4, but nothing has gone right for them to this point.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers | Chiefs -8.5
It’s a less-than-ideal situation for the Chargers. While Justin Herbert did take the field last week, he is not fully healthy. That was readily on display as the Chargers came up short in Pittsburgh in Week 3. Herbert managed just 125 yards passing on 12 of 18 completions with one touchdown. Converting just three of 11 third downs, Los Angeles only had 168 total yards on that day.
The Chiefs have taken their games down to the wire this year, but in each case, they emerge victorious. Of all the locations to play, Los Angeles likely offers up the least bit of resistance, and it’s unclear what we see from Herbert in Week 4. Kansas City has yet to play a dominant game to this point, but they are clearly the better team.
Los Angeles is averaging just 293 yards per game to this point as they have relied on their defense. One of the best in the league, the Chargers have allowed just 11 points per game, but they have been fortunate from an opponent perspective. When Justin Fields is the best quarterback you face, along with Gardner Minshew and Bryce Young, it’s difficult not to find success.
San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots | 49ers -9.5
Will the 49ers lose three straight? At any point, that was thought to be extremely unlikely, but that is the situation San Francisco finds themselves in. While they are without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, the 49ers still have more than enough to work with.
Jauan Jennings came to play with 175 yards and three touchdowns last week, but the rest of the 49ers offense failed to make an impact. There is a chance that Kittle returns to action, but Jordan Mason and Jennings are in for another busy week. We can also see Brandon Aiyuk continuing to shake the rest off.
The Patriots struggled last week to get anything done offensively. It didn’t matter who was under center for New England as neither was able to generate much downfield. This is a great spot for the 49ers defense. New England’s offense ranks last with just 102 passing yards per game. At only 13 points a game, the Patriots have minimal offensive firepower and shouldn’t present a threat to the 49ers.
Line 1
Houston/New York Jets/San Francisco
Line 2
Kansas City
Line 3
Houston
Line 4
New York Jets
Week 4 NFL Survivor Fade
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers | Bengals – 4.5
On the surface, this sounds insane. It means the Bengals will fall to 0-4 while the Panthers will now be 2-2. Andy Dalton came off the bench to easily beat the Raiders on the road. We have to consider the opponent in Week 3, and while Cincinnati has yet to win a game, they are the better team.
At the same time though, the Bengals defense did not look sharp against rookie Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. There might be some level of fear here after Cincinnati’s performance to start the season, but it’s simply a risk I don’t feel comfortable taking. The Panthers looked like a different team last week and we should give that some attention.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!