Week 4 Sleepers and Busts: Sleeper in Seattle

Below are the rest of my Week 4 sleepers and busts. These are players I am considerably higher or lower than compared to the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). These are not necessarily start/sit recommendations, though many are in the range where you may have some difficult decisions to make. The players on these lists are ones whom I expect will greatly overperform (or underperform) based on expectations.

Week 4 Sleepers and Busts

Sleeper Quarterback

Baker Mayfield (My rank: QB14; Expert Consensus Rankings: QB20)

Baker Mayfield has struggled in his sophomore season and has yet to reach the lofty expectations set for him before the season. On the surface, a matchup with Baltimore does not figure to remedy Mayfield’s ills. However, over the last two weeks, the Baltimore Ravens have allowed 723 passing yards on 77 attempts. That 9.39 average would be the third-worst in the NFL, ahead of only the Giants and Dolphins. Yes, one of those games was against Patrick Mahomes. But the other was against Kyler Murray, who averaged 8.73 yards per attempt against Baltimore. In his other two games, he has averaged 4.96. While I would not quite call this a get-right matchup for Mayfield, this is also not a defense you need to go out of your way to avoid, either. Depending on your other options, I do not have a problem starting Baker Mayfield this week.

Bust Quarterback

Daniel Jones (My rank: QB15; ECR: QB11)

Daniel Jones impressed in his first career NFL start in Tampa last weekend, and the legend of “Danny Dimes” was born. Before we start creating his Hall of Fame bust, let’s put his outing in perspective. Two weeks ago, we were willing to start anyone and everyone against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jones shredded them, which was certainly encouraging. I just want to see a little more before I rank him over the likes of Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, and Baker Mayfield in redraft leagues. I do think he makes a lot of sense in DFS, where his price is relatively depressed. Washington is certainly not a defense to fear and this game does have some shootout potential. But Jones will be without Saquon Barkley and will have to do much of the heavy lifting himself. I consider Jones more of a fringe play than must start this week.

Sleeper Running Backs

Justin Jackson (My rank: RB16 in Standard; ECR: RB29)

Justin Jackson has been an RB4 in PPR leagues in each of the first three weeks of the season. So it may seem strange to see me rank him in the top 20 this week. I am way higher of Justin Jackson than most. In fact, I am the highest out of all the rankings I have seen. My stance is part matchup, part intuition, and, quite frankly, part hope. I have Jackson in a league where my top three running backs are Leonard Fournette, Duke Johnson, and Kenyan Drake. I have Darrell Henderson and Darwin Thompson collecting dust on my bench. So perhaps I am simply trying to will “Justin Jackson, RB2 in Week 4” into existence. Still, there are plenty of valid reasons other than pure wishful thinking to buy in this week.

Jackson’s year-to-date fantasy totals are a tad misleading. He has had a touchdown called back by a penalty in each of the last two weeks. If those touchdowns had stood, he would currently be an RB2 instead of an RB4 on the season. I know – “if and buts” and all that. But Jackson has played at an extremely high level this year. He has averaged an incredible 7.9 yards per rush so far this season. For reference, he has more rushing yards than Kerryon Johnson despite Johnson having almost three times the rushing attempts. Jackson has been a dynamic runner when given the opportunity. And I expect him to have plenty of opportunities this week for a couple of reasons.

Miami is on a historically bad pace, and it starts with their sieve-like rushing defense. The Dolphins have allowed an average of 208 rushing yards per game. Five teams haven’t allowed 208 rushing yards this season. Four running backs have finished as an RB2 or better against Miami through just three games. The Chargers will have little trouble rushing the ball in this game. Austin Ekeler should have another huge day, but I think we can see a scenario much like the one we saw when Dallas faced Miami last week. In that game, Ezekiel Elliott had 21 touches and Tony Pollard had 16. Each ran for over 100 yards and finished as top-15 running backs.

I also think Melvin Gordon’s impending return can help boost Jackson’s chances this week. Ekeler has proven his value to the club with a fast start. Jackson has as well, but he is a clear third in the pecking order behind Gordon and Ekeler. If Anthony Lynn is going to overwork anyone in a game the Chargers are favored by 17 points in, I think it will be Jackson, not Ekeler. All of these factors lead me to believe that Jackson will have a much bigger role than most expect. If Jackson gets 15-plus touches, he is an easy RB2 in this matchup. He does have a calf issue heading into the weekend, so make sure to keep up with the latest news regarding his status.

Rashaad Penny (My rank: RB25 in Standard; ECR: RB44)

Rashaad Penny is still a question mark for Week 4 after missing last week with a hamstring injury. He got in a limited practice on Thursday, which leads me to believe Penny will be able to suit up this weekend. If he is active, he should get plenty of work against an Arizona defense that has allowed 157 rushing yards per game so far this season. Penny is still the backup to Chris Carson, but you have to wonder how long the coaching staff will stick with Carson. Carson has lost a fumble in all three games in 2019. No running back has lost more than three fumbles in a season since 2015. Pete Carroll is saying all of the right things, but I think Penny can take this job over with a clean bill of health and a good showing on Sunday.

Ronald Jones (My rank: RB31 in Standard; ECR: RB38)

Ronald Jones has been Tampa Bay’s best running back in two of their three games. Sure, they were the two games Tampa lost, but still. The Bucs are not going to be able to stop the Rams’ offense. Their best bet in keeping this one close is to play keep-away. To do that, they must run the football. Peyton Barber can wear down a defense and provide more manageable third-down situations, but Jones gives them the best chance to move the chains and keep drives alive. Jones is the Bucs running back I prefer in this matchup. He has a rather low floor, but his ceiling is much higher than Barber’s is. Jones sits just outside my top-30, so he is on the fringe of Flex consideration depending on your other options.

Devin Singletary (My rank: RB41 in PPR; ECR: RB60)

Bust Running Backs

Full disclosure – I was way lower on Darren Sproles (correct) and Jordan Howard (not so much) than the consensus. Here are a couple of other running backs I am low on compared to the field.

Wayne Gallman (My rank: RB29 in Standard; ECR: RB24)

Wayne Gallman was this week’s most popular waiver wire add following the injury to Saquon Barkley. Barkley is out 4-8 weeks with a high ankle sprain. He steps into a favorable matchup against Washington this week. Many will immediately plug him in as an RB2. I consider him more of a Flex play depending on roster configuration. Gallman will be the lead back in this game, but his exact workload is still in doubt. Gallman had just 10 carries in his only NFL start and has never had more than 15 carries in a game. He also has just three career touchdowns in 220 touches. Meanwhile, he has fumbled the ball five times. Gallman has a lower floor than most anticipate, which is why I have him slightly lower than most this week.

Chris Carson (My rank: RB32 in Standard; ECR: RB12)

This should not come as a surprise given what I just said about Rashaad Penny. The vote of confidence for Carson from his coaching staff feels like a good sign. But what are they supposed to say? Stop listening to what coaches say and pay attention to what they do. Following his fumble last week, Carson touched the ball five times on Seattle’s final 53 plays. And that was with Penny sidelined. I am just not convinced Carson gets the bulk of work in this game. Carson may be a top-10 running back this week. He also may get four carries and play 20 snaps. His floor is really low for a player considered to be a borderline RB1. If he is your RB2 or Flex, I don’t mind playing him. I just do not want to rely on him as an elite option given the uncertainty.

Sleeper Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs (My rank: WR30 in Standard; ECR: WR38)

Stefon Diggs enters Week 4 as the WR72. That is not what owners were expecting when picking Diggs in the third round in drafts. The passing game in Minnesota has not been able to get going so far in 2019. Things do not figure to get a whole lot easier in Chicago this week. However, I think it is a bit early to give up on Diggs quite yet. Diggs would stand to benefit from a matchup with Prince Amukamara if Kyle Fuller squares off against Adam Thielen. The Bears would be wise to sell out to stop Dalvin Cook and the rushing attack, which can also lead to more one-on-one opportunities for Diggs. Many will bench Diggs this week, and he has even been dropped in some cases. But I would fire him up as a WR3 despite what seems like a difficult matchup.

Randall Cobb (My rank: WR43 in Standard; ECR: WR54)

Randall Cobb disappointed in the boxscore last week but had a long touchdown nullified by a holding penalty which made his day look worse than it could have been. This week he faces weekly punching bag P.J. Williams of the New Orleans Saints. Williams has been a little bit better this year, but he is still the weak link in the Saints’ secondary. Williams has allowed a 109.9 passer rating on passes thrown in his direction. Dak Prescott would be wise to exploit this matchup. Amari Cooper, Dallas’ primary wide receiving threat, had an MRI this week on his ankle. The MRI came back clean, but Cooper may not see a full complement of snaps given his questionable health. A few more snaps and targets for Cobb combined with the matchup make him a viable Flex play this week.

Bust Wide Receiver

D.J. Moore (My rank: WR33 in Standard; ECR: WR27)

Admittedly, there are not many wide receivers who I would classify as busts this week, and I do not consider myself particularly down on Moore. But he is the only receiver in my top 48 who I am this much lower on than the consensus. So here he sits. Moore was only targeted twice in Carolina’s win in Arizona last week. He did hit value on the strength of a 52-yard catch and run touchdown. However, the fact that he was only targeted twice was noteworthy considering that Kyle Allen was the Panthers’ starting quarterback for this game. Allen will be under center once again in Week 4. Moore is still an important part of the offense, but the potential lack of volume makes me a bit wary of relying too heavily on Moore in Week 4.

Sleeper Tight End

Gerald Everett (My rank: TE14 in Standard; ECR: TE19)

If you are looking for a streamer at tight end this week, consider Gerald Everett of the Rams. Many are down on Everett after he busted last Sunday night. I choose to look at Everett’s glass as half full. With Tyler Higbee out, Everett was in on 58 of 66 offensive snaps. He will never be a primary target, but he will be on the field a ton in a very juicy matchup against Tampa Bay. All three starting tight ends who have faced the Bucs have finished inside the top 10, with two of them eclipsing 100 yards. Those thresholds feel a bit unrealistic for Everett, but this is certainly a weak spot in Tampa’s defensive scheme. I would not be surprised to see him get loose for a score, which would likely put him in low TE1/high TE2 territory.

Bust Tight End

O.J. Howard (My rank: TE16 in PPR; ECR: TE11)

Last week was a make or break week for O.J. Howard in my eyes in terms of him remaining a no-brainer weekly starter. The results were mixed in a favorable matchup against the Giants. Howard finished with three catches for 66 yards on four targets. Howard produced a fair amount, but not enough to keep him as a weekly must-start. He still has just nine targets through three games. I think he is more a matchup play until proven otherwise. This week presents a difficult test against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have only allowed 77 receiving yards to opposing tight ends through three weeks. I think the Bucs will try to milk the clock a bit in this game, which would reduce the potential looks for Howard, making him a TE2 for me this week.

Looking for more from Mick? Check out his Week 4 Rankings and his weekly dive into Targets and Touches.

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