Last week, my Sneaky Starts column featured four hits, a couple of near misses, and Derek Carr. Overall, the week was a modest success. Looking forward, it feels like there are a lot of injury question marks heading into Week 4. That could lead to some of the data concerning percentages starting to be a bit skewed. Some managers may be waiting for the green light before inserting players into their starting lineups. I will do my best not to “cheat” by taking players who are obvious starts if provided a clean bill of health. With that out of the way, here are my Sneaky Starts for Week 4!
Week 4 Sneaky Starts
Quarterback
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Current Start Percentage: 40 Percent (17th among Quarterbacks)
My Current Week 4 Rank: QB12
Geno Smith has posted weekly finishes of QB7, QB7, and QB21 through three weeks. Make no mistake about it though – Smith was excellent last week. He completed 77 percent of his passes and averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt. Smith has only thrown three touchdown passes through three games but still enters Week 4 as the overall QB12. I expect another solid week from the Seahawks quarterback when Seattle travels to Detroit to take on the Lions.
Detroit continues to be a pass-funnel defense. Opposing offenses are calling pass plays more than two-thirds of the time against the Lions. Smith should be given plenty of opportunities to put up points. He also has had great success against Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn in recent years. Smith was the QB2 in Seattle’s meeting with Detroit in 2022 and the QB8 in last year’s matchup. Seattle is not running the same offense under Mike Macdonald as they were in those games. But Smith will know what to expect from the Lions defensively. This is also a game that should feature plenty of scoring on both sides. Smith will need to be aggressive to keep up with Detroit’s potent offense. Geno Smith is an ideal streamer and a sneaky start for Week 4.
Other Quarterbacks to Consider
- Daniel Jones, New York Giants
- Current Start Percentage: 22 Percent (27th among quarterbacks)
- My Current Week 4 Rank: QB14
Running Backs
Carson Steele, Kansas City Chiefs
Current Start Percentage: 28 Percent (36th among Running Backs)
My Current Week 4 Rank: RB30
Coming up with sneaky starts at running back was a bit of a chore this week. There are currently 29 backs who are disqualified because they are active in at least 50 percent of Fantrax leagues. On top of that, players like Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, and Kenneth Walker III are not among that group. I applaud the fantasy managers who are being prudent about who to insert in their starting lineups. At the same time, you are all making my job extremely difficult.
My first pick for this week at running back is Carson Steele of the Kansas City Chiefs. Steele was one of the near misses I had in this space a week ago. Steele was the clear workhorse in the backfield for Kansas City last week. He did not perform especially well. Steele had no 10-yard runs, did not score, and caught one pass for two yards. Yet he finished the week as the overall RB32 in Half-PPR leagues. That volume should be there again in Week 4 when the Chiefs face the Los Angeles Chargers. The matchup is not particularly favorable. Los Angeles is one of four teams that have yet to allow a rushing touchdown to a running back. But Steele proved last week that he can be Flex-worthy based on sheer volume alone. That should be the case again this week.
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
Current Start Percentage: 26 Percent (38th among Running Backs)
My Current Week 4 Rank: RB32
The Dallas Cowboys are going to have to figure out how to run the football sooner rather than later. Just 20.5 percent of their total yards on offense have come on the ground through three games. Their Week 4 meeting with the New York Giants feels like a good time to get the running game going. New York is allowing opposing running backs to average 5.35 yards per carry against them.
Dallas has dialed back the usage of Ezekiel Elliott recently. Elliott’s opportunities through three weeks: 12, 9, 5. I cannot imagine that changes much in a short week given how poor Elliott has looked. Meanwhile, Rico Dowdle has seen an uptick in opportunities each week, from nine to 12 to 13 last week. Dowdle is easily my preferred Dallas running back in Week 4, and I would not be surprised if he approached double-digit fantasy points in this game.
Other Running Backs to Consider
- Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Current Start Percentage: 26 Percent (39th among Running Backs)
- My Current Week 4 Rank: RB36
- Braelon Allen, New York Jets
- Current Start Percentage: 22 Percent (44th among Running Backs)
- My Current Week 4 Rank: RB38
Check out all of our Week 4 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Wide Receivers
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Current Start Percentage: 38 Percent (46th among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 4 Rank: WR35
Fantasy managers see a clear tier break between Seattle’s three primary wide receivers. They are starting DK Metcalf in 97 percent of leagues. Jaxon Smith-Njigba follows at 65 percent. Then poor old Tyler Lockett checks in at 38 percent. While I do think Metcalf is the team’s alpha, I do not see much separation between Smith-Njigba and Lockett. The production has been all over the place for both wideouts.
Week 1: JSN: WR76, Lockett: WR25
Week 2: JSN: WR12, Lockett: WR83
Week 3: JSN: WR59, Lockett: WR49
I am not opposed to starting Smith-Njigba this week, but I do think there is an opportunity for Lockett to have a good game. As I mentioned with Geno Smith earlier, I expect Seattle to throw the ball a lot against the Detroit Lions on Sunday. The Lions deploy a ton of man coverage in their secondary. Both Smith-Njigba and Lockett have acquitted themselves well against man. But Smith-Njigba plays in the slot on 84 percent of snaps compared to just 26 for Lockett. That means the second-year pro will primarily deal with Amik Robertson in coverage. Robertson has been Detroit’s best cover corner in the early going.
Robertson has held opposing wide receivers to a 50 percent catch rate and 0.97 yards per route run. Right cornerback Terrion Arnold is allowing a 68 percent catch rate and 1.44 YPRR, while left corner Carlton Davis is serving up 2.00 YPRR and a 78 percent catch rate. If Seattle throws the ball as much as I expect them to, then Tyler Lockett should be able to exceed expectations this week.
Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons
Current Start Percentage: 40 Percent (45th among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 4 Rank: WR39
Darnell Mooney has developed a solid connection with Kirk Cousins during the pair’s brief tenure in Atlanta. Mooney leads the team with 169 receiving yards heading into Week 4. He has been a top-36 fantasy wide receiver in consecutive contests, including last week’s effort in which he hauled in all eight of his targets. The Falcons take on the New Orleans Saints in Week 4. New Orleans plays man coverage at an above-average rate. Mooney has excelled versus man, averaging 3.46 yards per route run. I do not think Mooney has a very high ceiling. But we do not need that from someone in this range. He should be a solid Flex option this week in 12-team leagues.
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
Current Start Percentage: 45 Percent (42nd among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 4 Rank: WR42
This pick may ultimately hinge on the status of Keenan Allen. The reason I say that is because the Chicago Bears are facing the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4. Los Angeles plays a ton of zone coverage. Allen has been one of the best zone-beaters in the NFL for a decade. If he can return this week, I will probably drop Rome Odunze a few spots in my rankings. However, if Allen remains out, Odunze makes for an intriguing Flex option. Even when facing zone coverage, Odunze operates down the field. His 19.1 aDOT (average depth of target) versus zone coverage is the third-highest among 46 wide receivers with at least 10 targets against zone. Odunze has an excellent to make one or two big plays in this matchup.
Other Wide Receivers to Consider
- Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams
- Current Start Percentage: 31 Percent (51st among Wide Receivers)
- My Current Week 4 Rank: WR43
- Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys
- Current Start Percentage: 32 Percent (49th among Wide Receivers
- My Current Week 4 Rank: WR44
- Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
- Current Start Percentage: 33 Percent (48th among Wide Receivers)
- My Current Week 4 Rank: WR44
Tight End
Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals
Current Start Percentage: 47 Percent (12th among Tight Ends)
My Current Week 4 Rank: TE12
Tight end is an absolute minefield this week. No less than five prominent tight ends are currently dealing with injuries, leaving their status for Week 4 in doubt. Then of course, we have players like Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews who are massively underperforming to this point in the season. If you need to think outside the box at the tight end position this week, I would consider Mike Gesicki. He already has two top-12 weekly finishes, which is more than we can say for most of the popular tight ends. He is also tied for fourth at the position with 18 targets. Gesicki gets a good matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is the only team to allow multiple touchdowns to tight ends thus far this year. Given the state of the tight end position, Mike Gesicki is more than just a Week 4 sneaky start.
Other Tight Ends to Consider
- Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams
- Current Start Percentage: 28 Percent (18th among Tight Ends)
- My Current Week 4 Rank: TE14
Kicker
Matt Prater, Arizona Cardinals
Current Start Percentage: 28 Percent (16th among Kickers)
My Current Week 4 Rank: K9
Sunday’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders should be one of the highest-scoring games on the slate. Both teams rank in the top five in points scored. But unlike Arizona, Washington has not stopped anyone defensively through three games. The Commanders have allowed the third-most points in the NFL entering Week 4. Arizona should face little resistance in putting up points. If Washington can somehow manage to make a red zone stop or two, it would put Matt Prater in a great position to finish the week as a top-12 fantasy kicker.
Other Kicker to Consider
- Greg Zuerlein, New York Jets
- Current Start Percentage: 21 Percent (18th among Kickers)
- My Current Week 4 Rank: K12
Defense/Special Teams
Miami Dolphins
Current Start Percentage: 49 Percent (10th among D/STs)
My Current Week 4 Rank: D/ST4
Let’s play a game. In Week 1, my D/ST sneaky start was the Chicago Bears. They finished that week as the overall D/ST1. Last week, I chose the Green Bay Packers. They finished the week as the overall D/ST1. What do these teams have in common? Each team was the weekly winner of the Will Levis Sweepstakes. Guess who the Miami Dolphins play this week?
Levis has thrown five interceptions in three games. Two of those have been returned for touchdowns. Levis has also been sacked 15 times. Miami’s defensive line has not been great at generating pressure. But I expect defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver to come up with unique ways to get to Levis. If and when that occurs, Miami has opportunistic players like cornerback Jalen Ramsey who can take advantage on the back end. The Titans have also had two punts blocked, one of which was returned for a touchdown. That may be an unlikely occurrence, but it speaks to the multitude of ways in which Tennessee has been prone to allowing points to opposing fantasy defenses/special teams units.
Other Defense/Special Teams to Consider
- Tennessee Titans
- Current Start Percentage: 21 Percent (22nd among D/STs)
- My Current Week 4 Rank: D/ST10
The Miami Dolphins didn’t even turn the ball over last week, and Seattle still finished as a top-five fantasy D/ST against them. All bets are off when it comes to the Dolphins offense until Tua Tagovailoa returns to action. Tennessee could very win this game with their defense.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!