True story: my survivor pool began with 25 entries. After three weeks, there are two left standing. I guess I was not the only one who expected Minnesota to dismantle Buffalo last week. Luckily for me, the two survivors decided to chop up the pot, and we are starting over this week. If you find yourself in a similar circumstance or if your league allows “strikes”, my Week 4 survivor pool rankings should come in handy. If you managed to avoid Minnesota and record three straight victories, go buy a lottery ticket.
Week 4 Survivor Pool Picks
Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers v. San Francisco 49ers
The Los Angeles Chargers look to improve on their 1-2 record when they host the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4. This had the makings of a competitive shootout before San Francisco lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for the season due to a torn ACL. The 49ers will now turn to C.J. Beathard under center. The drop-off from Garoppolo to Beathard will be too much for San Francisco to overcome in this game. Beathard’s lack of accuracy was a major problem last season. In six games, the former Iowa Hawkeye completed just 54.9 percent of passes, topping 58 percent on just one occasion. On the other side of the ball, Philip Rivers leads one of the league’s top offenses. Rivers has already thrown for over 900 yards and eight touchdowns to start the year. San Francisco’s defense has been suspect, to say the least. The 49ers are one of just two teams to allow at least 24 points in all three games thus far in 2018. San Francisco will not be able to keep up on the scoreboard against Rivers and company in this game. I have the Chargers as my top Week 4 survivor pool pick.
Next Best Thing: Jacksonville Jaguars v. New York Jets
It makes sense to attack a team who just became the first team to lose to the Cleveland Browns since 2016. The Jets have lost two straight and have sputtered on offense following a Week 1 upset victory in Detroit. They have scored a total of just 29 points in consecutive losses. Things do not figure to get any better against the Jaguars’ vaunted defense. Jacksonville has allowed an AFC-low 44 points so far in 2018. However, we saw last week that Jacksonville is still susceptible to the occasional stinker on offense. They tallied just 232 total yards and failed to reach the end zone in an ugly 9-6 home loss last week. The Jets do have a solid defense, having yet to allow more than 21 points in a single game. New York’s defense may keep this game closer than expected. Ultimately I believe Jacksonville’s defense will be too much for rookie quarterback Sam Darnold to handle, which is why I give Jacksonville the edge here.
Favorites Who Should Win
Green Bay Packers v. Buffalo Bills
A week ago at this time, I had Buffalo pegged as an NFL bottom feeder. Despite last week’s victory, I am not completely abandoning that mindset. Buffalo showed a lot of toughness on both sides of the ball in last week’s defeat of Minnesota. And Aaron Rodgers is fighting through a knee injury which figures to hamper him going forward. But I still think that expecting a repeat performance out of Buffalo in Green Bay is probably too tall of a task. After last week I am a little gunshy about pushing all of my chips in on Green Bay here, but I do expect them to emerge victorious in Week 4.
New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins
Hey, everybody! Welcome to the annual “New England’s Dominance Will Finally End This Season” game! The Patriots have lost consecutive games by double digits for the first time since 2002. Many are wondering if Tom Brady’s age and the lack of skilled playmakers will finally be the downfall of the Patriots’ dynasty. Personally, I’ll believe it when I see it. Miami has gotten off to a hot start and they have always been a thorn in Brady’s side, but I do not see them winning this ballgame on the road. Brady will somehow find a way to will his team to a victory. Then, we will blink and New England will have secured a first-round playoff bye week. Rinse and repeat.
Chicago Bears v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
One quarterback in this game averages less than 200 yards per game. The other has eclipsed 400 passing yards in each game this year. So naturally, I will be backing the former… obviously, Mitchell Trubisky is not the reason I am taking the Chicago Bears here. In fact, he is probably the reason they are not higher on this list. But the Bears’ defense is a dominant unit. I expect them to put enough pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick to force turnovers. Despite another great fantasy performance, we saw Fitzpatrick’s penchant for throwing untimely interceptions rear its ugly head in Tampa’s Monday night loss against Pittsburgh. Fitzpatrick has gotten off to such a blistering start in part because he has not faced a lot of pressure. That will not be the case against Khalil Mack and the rest of Chicago’s defense. I expect the Bears to create chaos for Tampa Bay upfront which will lead to turnovers. As long as Trubisky shows some competence, the Bears should win their third straight game.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
It feels a little dirty putting Seattle here for several reasons. First, they are facing a divisional opponent on the road, which is a no-no for me in survivor pools. Add that to the fact that I do not think they are particularly good, and you have the makings of a game that should probably be listed in the section below. But even though I do not think Seattle is very good, I know Arizona is not very good. The Cardinals have scored a total of 20 points through three games this season. For reference, Kansas City has scored 21 points in a quarter on two separate occasions. Perhaps the switch to rookie quarterback Josh Rosen will infuse some life into Arizona’s offense, but I am not willing to make that bet quite yet. I think Seattle will find a way to grind out an ugly victory on the road in this game. However, I would not chance the Seahawks with my Week 4 survivor pick.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans
The Super Bowl Champions eked out a victory against the Colts in Carson Wentz’ 2018 debut last week. This week they head out to Tennessee to take on the Titans. It is hard to figure out exactly what to make of Tennessee so far. They are 2-1 with back-to-back divisional wins. But Marcus Mariota is still clearly hampered by an elbow injury, and former leading receiver Rishard Matthews has asked for his release due to his lack of involvement in the offense. I think the turmoil surrounding the Titans’ offense will be too much for them to overcome in this game. The Eagles have yet to click on all cylinders themselves, but they still have a top-ten defense in terms of both yards and points allowed. I think they will find a way to leave Tennessee with a close victory in what figures to be a low-scoring affair.
Atlanta Falcons v. Cincinnati Bengals
The Atlanta offense has shown no ill effects from the loss of Devonta Freeman in their last two games. The Falcons have scored 68 points in consecutive home games, though they only have a 1-1 record to show for it. They will look to get back in the win column when they host the Cincinnati Bengals in what should be another shootout. Both teams rank in the top ten in the NFL in points scored, but in the bottom ten in terms of yardage allowed both in the air and on the ground. When both teams sport prolific offenses and porous defenses, I prefer to limit my survivor pool exposure. I would much rather just enjoy the game as a fan and fantasy owner and use my pick elsewhere.
Los Angeles Rams v. Minnesota Vikings
The Vegas line on this game is seven, which reeks of recency bias. Minnesota was patently awful in last week’s embarrassing home loss against Buffalo. That game turned out to be the quintessential trap game for the Vikings, following a tie in Green Bay and with a visit to Los Angeles on a short week looming. The Rams, meanwhile, have continued to be an offensive juggernaut, having already recorded three double-digit victories. However, I believe these teams are more closely matched than their most recent outings would indicate. Minnesota stifled the Rams 24-7 last November, and their defense is quite capable of making life difficult for the Rams. I do think the Rams win this game, but they are not a team I’m willing to fully back with my Week 4 survivor pool entry.
It’s a Trap!
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
The biggest story in the league so far this season has been the meteoric rise to stardom of Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The second-year standout is already breaking NFL records and making highlight-reel plays on a weekly basis. He faces perhaps his most difficult test to date in Denver on Monday night. The Broncos’ defense has not been the dominant unit we have grown accustomed to seeing in recent years, but they can still make life difficult for an offense. Von Miller already has four sacks this season and will have his sights set on taking Mahomes down. Kansas City is favored in this game, but as I have mentioned earlier and in the past, I do not like taking road teams in divisional matchups. There are plenty of safer routes to go this week.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
One of the league’s best rivalries resumes on Sunday night when the Ravens face the Steelers. The Ravens trail only Kansas City among AFC teams in scoring, and are behind just two AFC teams in terms of points allowed. However, their defense was lit up in Week 2 by Andy Dalton and will face its biggest challenge of the young season against Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh. Big Ben has averaged a ridiculous 380 passing yards per game so far this year. Historically, games between these AFC North rivals have usually been close. Five of the last six contests in this series have been decided by one score. This has all the makings of another nail-biter, which is why I will be avoiding this game with my survivor pool pick.
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
This game is a stay-away game for me when it comes to my Week 4 survivor pool entry. The Saints have historically struggled on the road, particularly outdoors. Their offense just never seems to be as crisp outside for whatever reason. The Saints’ defense, meanwhile, has been an absolute sieve this year following an outstanding 2017 season. They have allowed a video-game like 11.2 yards per attempt and 141.7 quarterback rating so far this year. The Giants have enough weapons to take advantage, even with the loss of tight end Evan Engram. If I had to make a pick I would take New York, but I think it is too close to call.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Many had high hopes for what the Texans would be able to accomplish this season with dynamic quarterback Deshaun Watson in the fold for a full season. But Houston has been a disappointment so far in 2018. They are 0-3 and have led for less than ten minutes of total game action through three weeks. Houston now heads out on the road to face a divisional foe in Indianapolis. Much like their Week 4 counterpart, the Colts were also hopeful about their 2018 prospects with Andrew Luck back in action. But Luck has averaged just 5.3 yards per attempt thus far, leading only the jettisoned Sam Bradford in that metric. I think Houston has enough playmakers on both sides of the ball to come away with a victory here. But I personally would not expose my Week 4 survivor pool entry to a winless team facing a divisional opponent on the road.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Detroit has been a Jekyll and Hyde team so far in 2018. They gave up 78 points in losses to the Jets and 49ers to start the year, then completely stifled New England in a 26-10 win on Sunday night. The mercurial Lions now head to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. Dallas has not had much success offensively through three weeks. The Cowboys have little going for them outside of Ezekiel Elliott, and quarterback Dak Prescott has regressed since his fantastic 2016 rookie campaign. Dallas’ defense has forced 11 sacks but Is one of two units yet to record an interception. For me, these teams are a little too up and down for me to consider either a viable option. My Week 4 survivor pool pick will be used elsewhere.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders
The Browns just won their first game since 2016 and have not had a winning streak of any kind since 2014. They also have a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start. And yet it feels to me like they should be favored in this game. The Raiders have blown second-half leads in all three games this year on their way to an 0-3 start. Oakland has just three sacks as a team, one less than former Raider Khalil Mack. I think Baker Mayfield should have a clean pocket and Carlos Hyde should be able to find holes against an Oakland defense hemorrhaging 5.1 yards per carry. I think Cleveland can earn a rare road victory this week. Having said that, I do not believe it is worth the risk in a survivor pool. If you lose because you backed the Cleveland Browns, you probably deserve it.
Mick Ciallela has been writing for FantraxHQ since July 2017. He has also written for Bleacher Report. He is a lifelong sports fan and has been an avid fantasy sports player for many years. Mick was the Overall Champion of both the 2016 Football Challenge – Roto and 2017 Play 3 Football contests hosted by CDM Sports. MIck was born and raised in Mount Vernon, New York and currently resides in New London, Connecticut.
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