For the fourth straight week, I’ve been on the wrong side of the Titans. They have been the team I just can’t figure out to start the season. Watch them lose in Buffalo now. We got back on track with straight picks as well as spreads, but the over/under calls were a struggle. There were a lot of high scoring games last week as 10 of the 15 games went over the number. I’m using the most recent lines leading up to Thursday Night kickoff, but keeping an eye on line movement.
We’ll keep track of all my picks throughout the season, including my losses! Over time, we’ll find out if you should back me or straight up fade me. Send your complaints to @chrismeaney.
Last week:
SU: 10-5
AS: 10-5
O/U: 7-8
Season total:
SU: 35-26-2
AS: 35-28
O/U: 35-28
Week 5 NFL Picks
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots -11 (50)
SU: New England
AS: New England
O/U: Over
There are way too many injuries on the Colts side of things: T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack and Jack Doyle. I’m not sure how Andrew Luck can keep up. Tom Brady also gets back Julian Edelman.
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (57.5)
SU: Pittsburgh
AS: Atlanta
O/U: Over
This is the fantasy game of the week and the highest total we’ve seen yet. The Falcons are allowing the fifth-most yards per game and the eighth-most passing yards per game, therefore the third-most points per game. The Steelers are allowing the third-most yards per game, the fourth-most passing yards per game, and the seventh-most points per game. Oh boy, that was a mouthful to read over. I expect points and the Steelers to win at home.
Baltimore Ravens -3 @ Cleveland Browns (45.5)
SU: Baltimore
AS: Baltimore
O/U: Under
Baker Mayfield turned the ball over four times last week against the Oakland Raiders. He’ll return home, but face a much tougher opponent. The Baltimore Ravens are allowing the second-fewest yards per game and get Jimmy Smith back. They have given up the fourth-fewest passing yards and points per game. Stingy with a much better looking offense.
Ravens defensive coordinator: Baker Mayfield is this generation's Brett Favre or John Elway https://t.co/rHJWM6NSJM via @YahooSports
— Freestyle Dave (@freestyledaveoh) October 4, 2018
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets -1 (42.5)
SU: Denver
AS: Denver
O/U: Under
Hmmm…flip a coin? Denver could have easily beat the Kansas City Chiefs last week and probably should have. They are a much more complete team than the New York Jets, but Case Keenum has not looked good. You could even stream the Jets’ defense in a couple spots this week, but I’m taking the better team here despite being on the road.
Green Bay Packers -1 @ Detroit Lions (51)
SU: Detroit
AS: Detroit
O/U: Under
Aaron Rodgers has not looked himself this week and could potentially be without Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison. Even Davante Adams is questionable. They were completely out of rhythm at home against the Buffalo Bills last week. Detroit has allowed the most rushing yards per game, but the second-fewest passing yards. Give me the home team and the offense that has looked better.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs -3 (49)
SU: Jacksonville
AS: Jacksonville
O/U: Under
This is the ultimate test for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. The welcome in the best defense in the league. Despite zero interceptions and only six sacks, the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed a league-low 14 points per game. The Jaguars are also allowing the fewest yards per game (269) and the fewest passing yards per game (164). The Chiefs are allowing a league-high 451 yards per game, the second-most passing yards per game and the fifth-most rushing yards per game. They are also giving up the eighth-most points per contest. Give me the better defense.
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals -5 (43.5)
SU: Cincinnati
AS: Miami
O/U: Over
Both teams rank inside the Top 10 in yards allowed and passing yards allowed. There will be some points scored in this game and the Cincinnati Bengals have one of the highest team implied totals (28.5) of the week. They also get Joe Mixon back.
New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers -6 (43.5)
SU: Carolina
AS: New York
O/U: Over
Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey have looked far better than Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. It’s really that simple as the Panthers are a much better team playing at home. The Giants’ defense looked much better last week and that should keep them in the game, but Eli has looked awful and it’s hurt everyone in this offense.
Tennessee Titans -5 @ Buffalo Bills (39.5)
SU: Tennessee
AS: Buffalo
O/U: Under
The Buffalo Bills rank last in passing yards per game and last in points per game. They’ve given up a league-high 21 sacks and the Titans have 12 on the season. Josh Allen has thrown for under 200 yards passing in two of his three starts, but his defense should be able to keep him with a chance to win it late at home. Derrick Henry 2018 coming out party?
Oakland Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers -5 (52.5)
SU: Los Angeles
AS: Oakland
O/U: Over
Derek Carr and the Oakland Raiders have totalled the second-most yards per game and fourth-most passing yards per game. The problem is, the defense is not good. They’ve given up the sixth most yards, the third-most rushing yards, and the second-most points per game. Melvin Gordon and Philip Rivers should be able to get what they want, but expect a shootout. The Chargers have allowed the fifth-most points per game and the 10th most yards per game. These two division rivals will play in a tight shootout.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers -4 (40.5)
SU: San Francisco
AS: Arizona
O/U: Over
David Johnson looked like the old DJ last week and this is a matchup he can excel in as well. Other than that, this game isn’t all that appealing from a fantasy standpoint. Arizona ranks last in yards and points (9.3 per game). Give me the home squad and continue to roll out George Kittle.
Los Angeles Rams -7 @ Seattle Seahawks (50.5)
SU: Los Angeles
AS: Los Angeles
O/U: Over
Vegas is giving the Seattle Seahawks a bit more respect than I thought they would. There’s no way the Rams don’t score 30 points and the Seahawks can’t keep up. Division rivals or not, Rams in a cakewalk.
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles -3 (46.5)
SU: Philadelphia
AS: Philadelphia
O/U: Over
This is a rematch of the NFC Championship game, but with two new quarterbacks. Carson Wentz is in for Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins replaces Case Keenum. The Philadelphia Eagles are allowing a league-low 63 rushing yards per game so it doesn’t really matter if Dalvin Cook plays or not. Besides, the Minnesota Vikings are averaging a league-worst 63 rushing yards per game. That’s why they’ll fall short in Philadelphia.
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans -3 (45.5)
SU: Houston
AS: Houston
O/U: Under
Ahh, the battle of Texas! Probably only exciting if you live in Texas. The Houston Texans are one of the fastest paced teams in the league, while the Dallas Cowboys are one of the slowest. They rely on Ezekiel Elliott and will put you to sleep. Their defense has been rock solid though, which should keep them in the game. Deshaun Watson has looked better and better with each game that passes by.
Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints -6.5 (52.5)
SU: New Orleans
AS: New Orleans
O/U: Over
Mark Ingram returns from a four-game suspension and Alvin Kamara owners are like ‘go away, we’re good!’ A friendly reminder that Ingram had over 1,500 total yards and 12 rushing touchdowns in 2017. Kamara is awesome now, he was awesome then and he’ll be awesome now. The Washington Redskins have allowed the second-fewest points per game, the third-fewest passing yards and yards per game. The New Orleans Saints’ are about to skew those numbers.
Like these Week 5 NFL Picks? Get more Chris Meaney on his new podcast, By Any Means. Each week he’ll bring in guests from around the industry to break down all the fantasy news you need to know for your march to the championship.