Last week was another successful week for NFL player props. I went 2-1, with the lone loss being due to Rashee Rice’s knee injury. But a loss is a loss, unless of course your sportsbook refunds you. (Mine did not.) That brings my record on the season to 8-3. It also means that if I go 2-1 this week, my winning percentage will decrease. I guess that means I am doing something right. Anyway, I know you do not care about how awesome I have been. You only care about how awesome I am going to be. So here are three of my favorite NFL player props for Week 5.
NFL Week 5 Player Props
Rhamondre Stevenson UNDER 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110, BetMGM)
Please forgive me, for my first Week 5 player prop is based on a bit of coachspeak. New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has fumbled in every game thus far this season. Head coach Jerod Mayo has strongly suggested that Stevenson will lose playing time due to his continued fumbling issues.
“I’ve had multiple conversations with Rhamondre… we can’t preach that ball security is job security and still have him out there a majority of the time.”
Mayo is a first-year head coach who is trying to establish a culture in New England. That is not to say that he does not care about wins and losses. However, I think it is more important given the low expectations the Patriots have this season that the players respect Mayo and take him at his word. I am expecting Stevenson to cede a decent chunk of the backfield work to Antonio Gibson on Sunday.
For what it’s worth, Gibson has acquitted himself nicely when given opportunities so far this year. He is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 4.24 yards per carry before contact. Stevenson is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and 3.31 yards per carry before contact. I am not here to argue that Gibson is better than Stevenson. But given how each has performed this season, Gibson could easily lead the team in carries in this game.
Of course, anything can happen. Stevenson could get limited work but pop off a 50-yard run against a below-average Miami run defense. Or Gibson could start, fumble, and be jettisoned to the bench ala Carson Steele in Kansas City last week. But considering the likelihood that Stevenson does indeed lose significant work, this number is too high. Therefore, I am taking the under on Stevenson’s rushing yardage prop in this game.
Terry McLaurin OVER 4.5 Receptions (+110, BetMGM)
I went back and forth on how I wanted to play Terry McLaurin this week. I landed on receptions, but I do not mind if you want to go with one of his other player props. There are a couple of reasons I ultimately decided on McLaurin’s receptions prop. First, McLaurin is rookie phenom Jayden Daniels’ top target. Daniels has targeted McLaurin on 26.4 percent of targets, including 29.3 percent over the last three weeks. I expect more of the same when the Commanders host the Cleveland Browns.
Daniels has been targeting McLaurin even more often in man coverage. The veteran receiver has a 29.6 percent target rate versus man, compared to 20.6 percent against zone. This is significant because the Browns play man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL. Cleveland also tends to leave their corners stationary, particularly on the outside. Denzel Ward has played on the left side of the defensive formation 89 percent of the time, while Martin Emerson Jr. has lined up on the right side 87 percent of the time. That means McLaurin, who lines up on the left side of the offensive formation 72 percent of the time, should draw Emerson Jr. more often than not in coverage. Per Pro Football Focus, Emerson Jr. has the lowest coverage grade among 79 cornerbacks who have played at least 50 percent of their team’s coverage snaps.
The Browns are one of the best teams in the NFL in generating pressure on the quarterback. Their 36-percent pressure rate is tied for the fifth-highest in the NFL. One of the ways to offset pressure is for the quarterback to get rid of the ball quickly. More than half (15) of McLaurin’s targets this year are within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. This also plays into the matchup with Emerson Jr., whose 18.5-percent missed tackle percentage is the sixth-highest among 79 primary cornerbacks. I anticipate lots of quick passes near the line of scrimmage aimed at McLaurin, intending to have him generate yards after the catch.
There is also the possibility that Commanders’ starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. misses this game. Robinson Jr. missed consecutive practices on Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury. If he were to sit out, that would presumably force Washington to lean more on their passing game. I like McLaurin to catch at least a handful of passes regardless of Robinson Jr.’s status. But it is always good to have multiple avenues to cash on this prop.
Check out all of our Week 5 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Jayden Reed OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-135, ESPNBet)
Last week I went on a spiel about how much I liked Rashee Rice’s receiving yardage prop. I still maintain it probably would have hit had he not gotten hurt, but that is the way the cookie crumbles. Anyway, I bring up Rice because I like Jayden Reed more this week than I liked Rice last week. And the logic is quite similar.
Reed is facing the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday afternoon. The Rams play zone coverage on 76.7 percent of passing plays. That is the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. And while they play it often, they do not play it very well. Per PFF, Los Angeles ranks in the bottom three in yards per coverage snap (7.73) and yards per coverage target (9.2). Jayden Reed is one of the best receivers in the NFL against zone coverage. Consider the following. Reed is averaging 4.38 yards per route run versus zone coverage this year. That is the highest in the NFL among all wideouts who have more than one (yes, one) target. That encompasses a total of 134 wide receivers. But wait – there’s more.
Reed’s 4.38 YPRR is the result of 315 receiving yards on 72 routes run. He has caught 14 of 16 targets to accumulate those 315 yards. If the number of routes Reed has run (18 per game) seems low, there’s a reason for that. These numbers include the two games that Malik Willis started at quarterback for the Packers. In the two games Jordan Love has played, Reed has caught 10 of 12 targets for 262 yards on 54 routes run (27 per game). His YPRR with Love under center is up to 4.85. In the two games Love has started, Reed has finished with 138 and 139 receiving yards. This is my personal favorite among my NFL Week 5 player props, and I am pushing all of the buttons.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!