With another week down, let’s keep things going. We have another week of survivor picks on tap for you, so follow along. Let’s continue to sweat along with our survivor picks as we progress through the season. While two teams, Philadelphia and Kansas City, made things interesting, it was ultimately a clean week with our tails (4-0). On the fades side, the Chargers did ultimately pick up the victory, but it was a game that could have gone either way.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 5 of the NFL season. Prior to the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 5 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears
Last week, the Washington Commanders gave the Philadelphia Eagles all they could handle in taking them to overtime. The game did end in a loss for Washington which pushed them to a 2-2 record, but it was an impressive effort.
While the Chicago Bears also lost by a field goal, there was a lot less to like. Their loss came at home to a previously winless Denver Broncos team who scored 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. This was the same Denver team that lost by 50 points the week prior, so it wasn’t exactly a tough opponent.
The Chicago loss came despite the best Justin Fields had to offer with 335 passing yards. They also got 103 rushing yards from Khalil Herbert, but it was still not enough. Considering the Chicago defense ranks 31st in the league with 34.3 points allowed per game and 25th with 387.5 points allowed, the loss really shouldn’t have been a surprise.
Sam Howell has been solid so far for Washington while Brian Robinson has allowed the Commanders to establish a solid run game. Playing at home should also help here which makes Washington one of my survivor picks.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Divisional games are always tough when making survivor picks, but there is a clear advantage here for Baltimore. The Ravens are coming off a 28-3 victory in Cleveland against a Browns team that was without their starting quarterback. This week, they should be in the same situation as Kenny Pickett deals with a knee injury.
With Pickett out, Pittsburgh will have to turn to Mitch Trubisky. However, based on how the former has played this season, I’m not sure how much of a downgrade it would even be. Through three and a half games, Pickett has thrown for just 803 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions. The Steelers haven’t been able to establish the run game either as Najee Harris is averaging about 50 rushing yards per game.
While the Ravens have dealt with significant injuries, they have also continued to hum along. Overall, they rank 12th in the league in yards this season and 12th in points. It is their defense that really gives them the edge though with just 295.5 yards and 14.5 points allowed. Both are good enough for third overall in the league.
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants
Yes, we are picking a team off a loss, but the Buffalo Bills were a team possessed last week. Miami has shown that are a force to be reckoned with this season with a 3-1 record.
To say that the Dolphins have an explosive offense would be an understatement. Tua Tagovailoa has already thrown for 1,306 yards and nine touchdowns. The ground game is also working just as well. Raheem Mostert is averaging 5.19 yards a carry while scoring six touchdowns while rookie De’Von Achane has quickly emerged on the scene. With the New York Giants ranking as one of the worst defenses in the league against the run, this could be another great week for Miami’s duo. I’m not saying Mostert and Achane will combine for eight touchdowns again, but there is a clear advantage here.
While the Giants are allowing 32.7 points per game, the Miami defense hasn’t proven to be that much better. The difference though, is how bad the New York offense has been. While Saquon Barkley likely will be back, their offensive line can’t stop anyone and the Giants offense has struggled to get any production going.
Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers
Quite simply, Bryce Young has looked like a true rookie quarterback. With a 75 quarterback rating and just 503 passing yards and two touchdowns in three games, the production has not been there. Miles Sanders is also averaging just 2.93 yards per game on the ground, so the Carolina offense really is not generating much production overall. Well, at least without Andy Dalton under center.
This week will be tough for them as the Detroit Lions are one of our top survivor picks. The Lions are playing at home with a steady Jared Goff under center throwing for 1,029 yards and six touchdowns thus far. Additionally, Detroit has a two-headed running back situation with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery both looking impressive. After playing last Thursday, the Lions also had additional time off to rest and prepare.
With the Lions ranking eighth in the league with just 311 yards allowed per game, it will be more difficult than normal for Carolina to move the ball.
Games to Fade
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
This is an interesting one. There is no disputing that, overall, the Buffalo Bills are a better team than the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, it must be noted that this week’s game will be played in London.
That is the same London where the Jaguars have become quite comfortable playing. Additionally, it is the same place where they dispatched the Atlanta Falcons with ease last week.
It was the second victory of the season for a Jaguars team that is still struggling to find their footing. Talent expectations are both there though, and perhaps their victory against Atlanta will get things started. Statistically, Buffalo is once again playing quite well this year despite their narrow escape in Week 1 against the Jets.
Buffalo is the better team, but this could be a trap game after a resounding victory against Miami.
Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings
Things were a lot closer than we expected on Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs barely escaped with a victory against the New York Jets. While that brought their record to 3-1, the Chiefs have yet to truly look like an elite team.
At 1-3, that is the polar opposite of the Minnesota Vikings. With that being said the home team here is only favored by 5.5 points which makes me look at things a little more closely. We know that Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson can move the ball with ease through the air, and if this turns into a shootout, it’s ultimately anyone’s game.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Kansas City, Philadelphia, Miami
Line 2
Washington, Buffalo, San Francisco, Kansas City, Detroit
Line 3
Dallas, Baltimore
Line 4
San Francisco, Washington
Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings coming soon!: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty