Finally! For one week we got a break. Or at least most of us did. Aside from whatever it was that the Jets did on Sunday, the other favorites did what they were supposed to. While we should certainly enjoy a relatively smooth week, we can never let our guard down. This week isn’t going to get any easier. In fact, the opposite is true as we have a challenging week in front of us. At this point though, we should just be happy we have a pick left to make. With that being said, let’s take a look at the games we are targeting for our Week 5 NFL Survivor Picks.
How Did We Do?
Is it too hard to ask for some level of predictability? That’s all we want. I mean, trust me, we can add a lot more items to the list, but lets start small. We want to be able to watch football, study the data, analyze the situation, and predict what is going to happen. Logically. That’s it. Just follow the logic. Through the first four weeks of the NFL season though, that has been thrown out the window. However, based on the overall results, the majority of the big favorites did come through in Week 4.
From a highly biased perspective, I’m not sure there’s anyone that truly wants to read my dissertation of the Jets. Sunday’s defeat was horrific, embarrassing, disgraceful and everything else in between. And that is just as a fan, not as someone who saw a survivor entry vanish. Those who selected New York thought they were getting Aaron Rodgers under center and not Zach Wilson coming off of Denver’s bench to don the green and white again.
While Houston and Kansas City certainly brought some stress to the proceedings, both the Texans and Chiefs emerged victorious. San Francisco didn’t appear to have any of those issues as they dispatched the Patriots with ease.
Having been previously burned the Bengals twice this season, it was difficult to have faith in them last week. All that happened, is that we had a third week of my leaning the wrong way on Cincinnati as they defeated the Panthers and Andy Dalton.
Week 5 NFL Survivor Picks
This is when things really start to get interesting. Not only have you gone through a few teams, but bye weeks are now also in play. With four teams on bye, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Tennessee Titans, we have two fewer games, and eight fewer teams to work with.
Another challenge is that we have a lot of tight games expected so we are limited in our options. Again, there are no excuses as we simply move forward.
Each week, we’ll continue to pick four games to target along with one that we are fading. They will be ranked in order of our preference along with the lines that we hope to see building off each other each week.
Washington Commanders vs. Cleveland Browns – Commanders -3.5
I wasn’t kidding about our options being limited. We really are putting our faith in a rookie quarterback, but Jayden Daniels is coming off three straight victories. In back-to-back weeks, the Commanders have gone into Cincinnati and Arizona and emerged victorious. Last week, the Cardinals seemingly never had a chance in a 42-14 defeat.
Daniels has three touchdown passes in the last two weeks and remains extremely efficient. The rookie has an 82.1% completion percentage with just one interception even as Washington is beginning to open things up downfield more. It also doesn’t hurt that Daniels has 218 rushing yards along with four touchdowns.
To this point, the rookie’s performance trumps that of Deshaun Watson whose 74.4 quarterback rating is substantially less than Daniels at 107.4. Washington’s offense ranks fifth with 394 yards per game compared to Cleveland at 30th with just 277 yards. A similar margin is present in points scored as the Commanders are putting up 30 points per game. The Browns do have an average defense, but the Commanders do enter with a lot of firepower. The majority of their defensive struggles came in two games and Cleveland hasn’t proven the ability to take advantage of it. It will be a close game, but Washington does have the edge after Cleveland came up short in Las Vegas on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New Orleans Saints – Chiefs – 5
Not that I’m completely into conspiracy theories, but will the NFL really let the Chiefs lose in primetime? With that being said, the Chiefs really are the better team heading into Monday night. And we know that playing in Arrowhead is not the easiest endeavor either.
While they are undefeated on the season, it has not been easy or clean for the Chiefs. Playing in close games has been an ongoing trend as they have yet to truly break out or completely dominate. Patrick Mahomes has just six touchdowns, compared to five interceptions, and is actually being outplayed by Derek Carr. From the perspective of the Saints though, they’ve really just had two strong games.
The Chiefs are now without Rashee Rice, but their offense should be set up to handle it. Maybe this will be the week Travis Kelce finally gets going.
Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants – Seahawks -6
The Seahawks are on a short week, but heading back to Seattle works in their favor. New York will be well rested after losing to Dallas on Thursday, but they haven’t proven the ability to find the end zone. It has been a rough year for the Giants as they rank 29th with just 15 points scored per game.
Prior to Detroit lighting up the scoreboard on Monday with 42 points, the Seahawks had the fourth-best defense allowing just 14 points per game. Downgrading to Daniel Jones should make things easier for Seattle’s defense, and facing the 12th man as well will likely be difficult for him.
The return of Kenneth Walker further solidifies Seattle’s offense. Ultimately, there is too much offensive talent for the Giants to contend with. Jones is not in the position to win a shootout and New York’s defense hasn’t shown the ability to get to the quarterback. The Giants have failed to get much penetration on their defensive line and Geno Smith should have plenty of time to throw the ball downfield.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals – 49ers – 7.5
Facing the Patriots certainly helped, but the 49ers used last week to find their groove. It was a 30-13 victory for San Francisco as their defense stood out. That’s not to disparage the success that Brock Purdy and the offense had, but the 49ers were truly running on all cylinders.
Jordan Mason continues to break the 100-yard pass while finding the end zone as the 49ers have dealt with the loss of Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco did receive the balance of their other skill position players back so they are pretty close to full strength.
The Arizona defense is allowing the fourth most points per game and Kyler Murray hasn’t consistently done well enough for the Cardinals to keep up. Murray is averaging just 180 passing yards per game and that is simply not enough. Running the ball is the strength of Arizona’s offense to this point, but that is also the strength of the 49ers defense.
Line 1
Houston/New York Jets/San Francisco/Seattle
Line 2
Kansas City/San Francisco
Line 3
Houston/Kansas City
Line 4
Washington
Week 5 NFL Survivor Fade
With lots of tight spreads, it’s difficult to find anything that truly stands out as a fade in Week 5.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!