Week 5 Start and Sit Recommendations

There were plenty of fantasy-relevant players in this week’s Thursday night matchup, which has not been the case up to this point in the season. Depending on how the chips fell for you, you may need to count on players you might not normally trust to win your Week 5 matchup. That is where my start and sit recommendations come in. I list players at each position who are on the borderline of that start/sit threshold and discuss why I would start or sit them this week. This should give you an idea of what to do with some of these players as it relates to your lineups.

The “sit” list is admittedly a little light this week. The main reason is that a few of my would-be sits played in Thursday night’s game. I ranked Matthew Stafford outside my top-10 QB and Alex Collins and Tyler Lockett outside of the top-30 at their respective positions. They would have been among the primary candidates for those spots if this column were published earlier in the week. It would be disingenuous of me to list players as “sits” whom I would not want to sit just to fill space. So that is why there are not a ton of sits this week. With that in mind, here are my Week 5 start and sit recommendations.

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Week 5 Start and Sit Recommendations

Quarterbacks to Start

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings v. Detroit Lions

Kirk Cousins struggled last week against the Cleveland Browns. Cousins threw his first interception of the season and had just 203 passing yards. Before last week’s dud, Cousins had been remarkably efficient dating back to last November. In his previous 13 games, the Vikings quarterback completed over 70 percent of his throws, averaged 8.06 yards per pass attempt and had thrown for 32 touchdowns against just three interceptions. So we just have to chalk up last week’s performance as a bad day at the office against a quality opponent. Minnesota’s next opponent, the Detroit Lions, are of lesser quality. They are the NFC’s lone winless team heading into Week 5, And to say they have struggled mightily in pass coverage so far this season would be putting it mildly.

The Lions have allowed opposing signal-callers to average 10.59 yards per pass attempt in their first four games. To give you an idea of how high that is, the NFL average is 7.47. The quarterbacks whom Detroit has faced thus far are averaging 6.96 yards per attempt in their non-Lions games. Quarterbacks are attacking Detroit Lions deep with great frequency and success. Detroit has faced a downfield attempt (at least 20 yards downfield) on a league-high 22.8 percent of passes. And opponents have been successful on such attempts. They have completed 43.5 percent of downfield attempts at an average of 18 yards per attempt. Both numbers are above the league averages (37.6 completion percentage, 13.08 yards per attempt) and would be significantly higher were it not for a league-worst three drops on deep balls. Thanks, Marquise Brown.

Kirk Cousins has struggled when pressured so far this season. He has a completion percentage of 52.9 percent (down from 80.90 percent when clean) and averages 5.31 yards per attempt (down from 8.54). That should not be an issue against the Lions this week. Opposing quarterbacks average 2.75 seconds to throw against Detroit. That is the second-highest number in the NFL. Cousins should have plenty of time to scan the field and find the open man. Amani Oruwariye and Bobby Price will be no match on the outside for Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Cousins should have plenty of success regardless of the status of running back Dalvin Cook in this one. I ranked Cousins ahead of Russell Wilson this week and would not be surprised to see him flirt with top-five production in this matchup.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Ryan Tannehill had over 300 yards of offense last week but accounted for just one touchdown and finished as the QB17. The New York Jets sacked Tannehill seven times and hit him 15 times in their upset overtime victory. Tannehill should enjoy a much easier go of it on Sunday when he and the Tennessee Titans face the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville has a league-low five sacks on the young season and has allowed a league-high 75.2 percent of passes to be completed. That is not exactly a recipe for defensive success. They are also the only team other than the Lions to permit more than nine yards per pass attempt.

I realize conventional wisdom says this will be another monster game for Derrick Henry, but I see things playing out a bit differently. While the King will certainly get his, this feels like a spot for the Titans to ease his load a little bit. Henry has 107 total touches over his last three games. His current workload is unlike anything I have seen since I used to play Madden with the Chargers in the early 2000s. Do you really think I’m throwing to Curtis Conway and Tim Dwight when I have LaDainian Tomlinson at my disposal? Anyway, back to the Titans. They will need to keep Henry fresh for upcoming games against Buffalo, Kansas City, and Indianapolis. I see this game more like a get-right spot for Tennessee’s passing attack, especially given the return of superstar wide A.J. Brown.

Jacksonville would be wise to shadow Brown with Shaquill Griffin, who is their only competent primary cornerback. Of the four corners in the NFL who have allowed at least 2.5 yards per route covered, two are Jaguars. Even if Griffin does shadow Brown, the third-year wideout from Ole Miss should have a decided advantage. And Tannehill would have other favorable matchups to choose from against the tandem of Tyson Campbell and Tre Herndon. Tannehill has had just one top-20 weekly finish thus far in 2021, but I expect that to change after Sunday. Last year’s overall QB7 should produce plenty of big plays against the Jaguars, even without Julio Jones in the fold. Start Ryan Tannehill with confidence this week.

Quarterback to Sit

Daniel Jones, New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

It may feel risky to bench Daniel Jones this week. He is the overall QB6 through four weeks and had one of the best games of his career last week in leading the Giants to a comeback victory in New Orleans. We also just saw Sam Darnold finish his matchup with the Dallas Cowboys as the weekly leader among quarterbacks in fantasy points. But a lot went into Darnold’s QB1 finish. First, he ran for two touchdowns. I realize it was his second consecutive game doing so, but the odds of such a feat happening are slim. Darnold also benefited from a negative game script in the fourth quarter. He threw for 139 yards and two touchdowns in the final stanza of that game. If Carolina had remained competitive throughout (or if they had Christian McCaffrey) it is highly unlikely Darnold would have thrown for 300 yards.

Back to Jones. The Giants quarterback threw for a career-high 402 yards in the win. It was an incredibly impressive performance given the circumstances. He beat a tough opponent on the road and did so without two of his favorite weapons in Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. However, Jones had not recorded so much as a 300-yard game since his 2019 rookie season. He will also once again be without the services of the two aforementioned wide receivers. I will not deny that Jones has a high ceiling in this game. But it’s the floor that gives me pause. Dallas has improved greatly on the defensive side of the ball. They have already forced 10 turnovers, and that has been an issue for Jones during his career. I want to see him put together another game like he did last week before anointing him as a fantasy starter.

More Week 5 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | PPR | Flex

Running Backs to Start

Damien Harris, New England Patriots at Houston Texans

Damien Harris has 10 carries for 10 yards over the last two weeks. My sources tell me that is not good. However, I am willing to give Harris the benefit of the doubt. He faced two tough matchups against the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Before that, Harris had acquitted himself quite nicely in games against the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. It would appear as if Harris were a matchup-based fantasy starter. Isn’t that the dream? To have a player we can start or sit based solely on which team they are playing? Week 5 could put that theory to the ultimate test. Harris and the New England Patriots face the Houston Texans.

This is a game the Patriots should be able to control, which could give Harris more opportunities for touches. If he gets those touches, he should have a big day. The Texans have given up the sixth-most rushing yards (455) and third-most yards per rush (5.00) to opposing running backs this year. They have also allowed an average of 2.69 yards per carry before contact, tops in the NFL. Another encouraging number is 17. That is the number of routes Harris ran against the Buccaneers last week. The number represents a career-high and suggested that Harris may not be a one-trick pony. Fantasy managers may be wary of starting a player like Harris who has disappeared in back-to-back games. I can understand the apprehension, but I would trust the matchup and start Harris as an RB2 this week.

Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons v. New York Jets

I don’t know if I’ve ever been happier to see a player that I do not have on a single fantasy team score three touchdowns in a game than I was last week with Cordarrelle Patterson’s slate-breaking showing against the Washington Football Team. While I think we can all agree he will not score 20 touchdowns this season, the debate about his value going forward rages on. I am higher on him than most, and I think he is a Flex-worthy play until further notice. Week 5 is no exception when the Falcons play the New York Jets. I would advise starting both him and Mike Davis in this matchup.

The matchup itself looks ideal, as the Jets have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. New York’s run defense is not as bad as those numbers suggest, but Davis and Patterson will log plenty of touches with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage out of the lineup. One area the Jets have struggled in is covering backs out of the backfield. They have ceded 288 receiving yards to opposing running backs so far in 2021. Jeremy McNichols finished as the overall RB23 in half-PPR scoring last week while carrying the football one time in last week’s game. He became the third back in four weeks to register at least six catches against the Jets. I would expect to see both Patterson and Davis approach that number on Sunday, giving them a higher floor than most running backs in the low-RB2 range.

Running Back to Sit

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers

I realize that I just advocated starting a running back who has a total of 10 carries over his last two games, and now I am going to advise sitting a running back mainly because he has just nine carries over that same span. The difference between Damien Harris and Miles Sanders in my eyes is that you could have seen Harris’ lighter workloads coming. He faced difficult matchups in each game, and you can understand the logic of New England’s offensive game plan. I have no idea what Nick Sirianni and the Eagles’ coaching staff are doing with Miles Sanders. I thought it was strange when they gave Sanders just two carries in Dallas, and I found it even more bizarre when they allotted just seven rushes last week against Kansas City.

The Chiefs have one of the weaker defenses against the run in the NFL. I would have thought Philadelphia would want to exploit that and run the ball a ton. Then again, I also would have thought they would try to cover Tyreek Hill on occasion. Now they face the Carolina Panthers, who have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this year. Granted, they just got gashed by Dallas’ duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. But I have zero confidence that the Eagles will give Sanders enough chances to post Flex-worthy numbers. Pollard was just the RB42 last week despite averaging 6.7 yards per carry. And Sanders himself has finished outside the top-40 in consecutive weeks. I would prefer to sit Sanders this week if possible and see if his usage improves rather than trusting him in my lineups.

Wide Receivers to Start

Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Emmanuel Sanders has enjoyed a rather nice beginning to his tenure as a Buffalo Bill. He has averaged just under 69 total yards per contest through four games. I mentioned this in our Bold Prediction piece, but it is worth repeating that Buffalo is targeting Sanders down the field. His 16.04 aDOT (average depth of target) is the sixth-highest among wide receivers with at least 15 targets. This is an area in which Sanders’ Week 5 opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, can be had. The Chiefs have allowed the eighth-most yards per target (9.31) and ninth-most yards per catch (14.17) to enemy wideouts this season. Part of the reason is Kansas City’s struggles getting to the quarterback. They have forced just seven sacks so far this season and opposing quarterbacks average 2.66 seconds to throw. That number is the fifth-highest in the NFL and should allow Sanders time to get downfield.

I would expect Sanders to see more of Mike Hughes than any other Kansas City cornerback. Advantage – Sanders. Hughes has given up 0.47 fantasy points per route covered this year. That number is the second-highest among full-time cornerbacks. Buffalo is among the most pass-happy teams in the NFL. They have attempted 75 passes on first down this year, which leads all NFL teams. This game should feature plenty of fireworks, as it pits two of the AFC’s top offenses against one another. Both teams average 33.5 points per contest, and I would expect more of the same on Sunday night. Even if Sanders fails to hit the thresholds I listed in the Bold Predictions piece, he should provide value as a WR3 in Week 5.

Henry Ruggs, Las Vegas Raiders v. Chicago Bears

Henry Ruggs never had more than five targets in any of the 13 games he played in his rookie season a year ago. He has eclipsed that mark in each of his last three games. Ruggs leads the Raiders in receiving yards through four games and is becoming a big part of their offense. But Ruggs still carries the stink of last year’s disappointing rookie campaign. Don’t believe me? OK, let’s play a game. Which wideout would you rather have? (Stats are 2021 numbers)

Wide Receiver A – 25 targets, 297 yards, 17.75 aDOT, 78 YAC (yards after catch)
Wide Receiver B – 25 targets, 297 yards, 17.33 aDOT, 76 YAC

Those receivers look pretty similar if you ask me. Yet one is viewed as a highly volatile WR4 (that would be Ruggs, who is Receiver B in this experiment) while the other is almost universally considered a must-start WR2. Receiver A, for the record, is Ja’Marr Chase. Sure, Chase has more touchdowns and is more likely to receive targets in scoring territory. But I see these two receivers as being a lot closer than most people seem to think.

As far as Week 5 is concerned, I am very intrigued by Ruggs based on his matchup. Chicago mostly keeps their trio of cornerbacks stationary, while Las Vegas moves their receivers around the formation. This means that the Raiders should be able to dictate and exploit individual matchups. If Derek Carr has time to throw, expect him to hit Ruggs for a big play or two. None of Chicago’s corners can keep up with Ruggs and his 4.27 speed. That is part of the reason no team in the NFL has allowed more touchdowns on deep passes than the Bears have (four). Quarterbacks have a 126.2 passer rating on deep throws against Chicago. Only Atlanta’s defense has been worse on such throws. Henry Ruggs could be in for a big day on Sunday.

Wide Receiver to Sit

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders

“Allen Robinson is still the Alpha in Chicago’s offense”, they said. “Just wait until Justin Fields is the starting quarterback”, they said. Well, through four weeks, Allen Robinson is the overall WR61 (21 spots below Kalif Raymond, for those needing a visual). In the two games that Fields has started, Robinson is the WR72, behind such legendary names as Jody Fortson and James Proche. I am not here to tell you that Allen Robinson is anything other than an immensely talented wide receiver. If he was on a team that featured a prolific passer and an innovative offensive coaching staff, I would be all about starting Robinson every single week. But that is simply not the case in October 2021.

Could Robinson buck his recent personal trends and put up a vintage performance? Sure, he could. So could Sammy Watkins, Curtis Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk. Guess what? I wouldn’t start any of those guys either. It’s not as if Robinson has a cake individual matchup he can exploit. Casey Hayward and Nate Hobbs rank first and third respectively among cornerbacks in Pro Football Focus coverage grades. Trayvon Mullen ranks 14th. There are no soft spots here. Vegas held the Chargers’ dynamic duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to 47 scoreless yards on 15 targets last week. Better days are likely ahead for Allen Robinson. I just do not expect Week 5 to be one of them. Keep him on the bench until he proves himself worthy of a spot in your starting lineup.

Tight End to Start

Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings v. Detroit Lions

Conklin was on the wrong side of this column last week, and unfortunately for those who started him, I was correct. The Vikings’ tight end had just 18 scoreless yards in last week’s loss. Conklin’s Week 5 matchup is exponentially better than his Week 4 one was. The Detroit Lions have given up 251 yards and one touchdown catch to opposing tight ends this year. Those numbers do not exactly jump off the page. However, they have been targeted by tight ends just 19 times during the season. That means they have allowed an average of 13.21 yards per target to opposing tight ends so far this year. The Kansas City Chiefs have the next highest mark at 10.45.

Linebacker Derrick has struggled mightily in coverage, albeit in a small sample size. Barnes has allowed four receptions for 59 yards on just 16 routes covered so far in 2021. He will most likely be the player assigned to cover Conklin. This is a matchup Conklin should be able to take advantage of. He may not have the secure workload that some of the elite pass-catching tight ends in football possess. However, Conklin ranks inside the top-12 in both routes run and targets per route run among tight ends. That should give him enough of a floor to put up solid numbers even if he cannot manage to get into the end zone. If you are in a pinch due to the injuries to George Kittle and Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Conklin makes for a solid alternative this week.

Tight End to Sit

Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers v. Cleveland Browns

Jared Cook set season-highs in receptions (6) and yards (70) in last week’s win against Las Vegas. He also caught his first touchdown of the season. However, he is set to take on the stout Cleveland defense this week. The main reason I listed Tyler Conklin as a sit last week was the Browns and their ability to stifle tight end production. Nothing I saw in that game changed my mind about their prowess in that area. Safety Ronnie Harrison should be available Sunday after leaving last week’s game early. He and linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah have been solid in coverage to this point in the season. Cook could be a fringe starter depending on your other options, but I would not jam him into lineups expecting a big Week 5 performance.

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