Week 4 was another action packed one full of twists and turns right up until the end. We saw some questionable refereeing decisions (I hear you CLE and DEN). We also saw discount rack QBs like Mitchell Trubisky and Marcus Mariota have career games. What surprises will Week 5 bring? Armed with a quarter of a season’s worth of data and film well look into what advantages we can tap into this week in pursuit of yet another W. Let’s dive into Week 5 Starts and Sits.
Week 5 Starts and Sits
Start These Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
If you’re just a casual observer of the game and continue to live off of last year’s glories you’ll be extremely surprised to see Wentz listed here in a seemingly tough matchup against Minnesota’s “dominating” defense. But things change quickly in the NFL and the reality is this year’s Vikings defense is actually a bottom third unit against the pass. Wentz has the gang back together and Alshon Jeffrey looks like he hasn’t lost a step after posting 8-105-1 on just nine targets last week. This could easily be Wentz’s return to the elite rung of QBs. Capitalize on it.
Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals
Rosen’s box score stat line in his first start against the Seahawks competent pass defense really doesn’t tell the whole story. He looked poised and put the ball on target in the endzone multiple times for both J.J. Nelson and Chad Williams who let him down with drops. Surprisingly, even Larry Fitzgerald got in on the act and dropped a number of catchable balls that clearly didn’t help the rookie. This week Rosen will face a 49ers defense that ranks 22nd against the pass in terms of yardage and that has allowed 11TDs through the air so fair this season (T28th NFL). Expect a Rosen breakout in game 2 of his young career.
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
The Red Rifle has been slingin’ it all over the yard so far this season to devastating effect and this week will be no different. The Dolphins were exposed last week and shown to be one of the most fraudulent 3-0 teams in recent memory when they were thoroughly dismantled by the New England Patriots. Expect no different in this Week 5 matchup. I’ll be the first to admit that by the numbers the Dolphins aren’t a terrible pass defense. Still, the absence of Cameron Wake and Bobby McCain will be felt in this game. The hot Bengals offense and their conductor, Andy Dalton, wont be stopped this week.
Check out our Week 5 Sleepers: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Sit These Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Any quarterback lining up across from Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh should expect to struggle. A quarterback on a team absent most of its star players due to injury, retirement, and poor front office decision-making can be assured of an uphill battle. To date the Seattle Seahawks have given up 27 hits this season, a bottom third mark in the NFL. Wilson will have to be on the move constantly in this game just to get passes off. When he does escape pressure, he’ll be throwing into a secondary that has allowed just five passing TDs so far this year. There will be better options available.
Baker Mayfield, Celeveland Browns
Mayfield suffered many of the same drop issues in his Week 4 start as co-rookie Josh Rosen. Unfortunately his Week 5 opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, field one of the best passing defenses the NFL has to offer. Worse still, said defense will have their top corner Jimmy Smith, returning to the lineup in a divisional contest against the inexperienced signal caller. With an O-line that has given up the third most sacks in the NFL so far and the turnover issues Mayfield displayed last week one can easily expect a tough day at the office for 2018’s first overall pick.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins is a good NFL quarterback. He’s an accurate thrower that has the requisite arm strength to make any throw necessary in the modern game. However, Cousins struggles when he’s required to make off platform throws or is forced off of his spot by pressure. So far the Vikings O-line has surrendered the 10th most sacks in the NFL and this week they will face a dominant D-line sure to add to that total. Cousins will be under siege. The last time Kirk was in this situation the Vikings got blown out by the Buffalo Bills. Expect a similar result this time if the Vikings O-line cant hold back the Eagles. However, keep in mind that if the Vikings can handle the Eagles front, the pieces on the back end of their defense aren’t nearly as imposing.
Start These Running Backs
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
I must admit this recommendation is a more speculative one than most because, quite frankly, no one knows exactly how the Packers will employ their running backs other than Green Bay’s coaching staff. That said, there are a number of factors that play a role in why I feel Jones could be a solid play come Sunday.
1. Aaron Jones is the far superior back. Jones leads all Green Bay backs in explosive runs, yards per touch, tackles evaded, and juke rate.
2. Green Bay is likely to be down 3 WRs this week with Adams the newest wideout in doubt for Sunday’s contest. A run-heavy game plan may be in order to account for that.
3. DET is the league’s worst run defense, surrendering an average of 157.8 ypg so far this year. Put all of these together and its easy to see why I believe Jones will be a top 24 play this Sunday.
T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Kansas City Chiefs are another team that struggles against the run. They rank 28th in rushing yards allowed so far this season and field one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Logically one way to limit the impact of KCs offense would be to salt away the clock with a run-heavy game plan and I expect the Jaguars to do just that if they don’t go down by too much early. Yeldon has been a capable fill-in for the oft inured Leonard Fournette and I expect he will be heavily involved in this one as the Jaguars cannot put all their hopes on the back of an inconsistent Blake Bortles.
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
It seems odd that a guy like David Johnson even needs to be on this list but this year has been a tough one to date for Johnson. HC Steve Wilks has yet to properly use the talented back and performances have oscillated between decent to downright awful in the four games he’s played this season. He’s yet to reach 75 yards on the ground in any game so far this year. Have no fear this week. Johnson comes up against a 49ers defense that has given up an average of 29.9 fantasy points to the running back position in 2018 and that wont change this week. Expect a mid to high end RB1 performance out of DJ in a plus matchup in Week 5.
Sit These Running Backs
Alex Collins, Baltimore Ravens
Collins is steadily fumbling his way out of a job this season. So far this year we’ve seen Collins be replaced at the goal line by Buck Allen on multiple occasions and this isn’t a phenomenon that’s likely to change this week. Collins is also ceding most of the RB targets to Allen as well as he continues to be worked primarily between the 20s as purely a runner. Even in a plus matchup against a Browns defense that has struggled against the run it is a risky proposition to expect much out of Alex Collins in Week 5.
Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos
Freeman scored a touchdown last week and reached the double-digit fantasy point mark for the second time in his career. He also garnered eight carries. Freeman’s uneven workload is the largest point against expecting a plus performance against the Jets who have a middle of the pack defense against the run. His lack of targets is point #2. It should be noted that HC Vance Joseph has stated that he plans to get Royce Freeman more work but the presence of Phillip Lindsay and Devontae Booker still looms large. Don’t expect too much from Freeman this week as he will leave fantasy gamers disappointed if he doesn’t reach the end zone.
Carlos Hyde, Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb’s coming out party last week is bad news for Carlos Hyde’s workload moving forward and I think we’ll see the beginning of that this week. Unfortunately, that isn’t Hyde’s only issue. So far this season Hyde has been mediocre at best in his yards per touch rating (58th), breakaway run rate (36th), and fantasy points per opportunity (68th). He’ll also face a stiff Ravens defense that currently ranks 4th against the run. Find other options at RB for Week 5.
Start These Wide Receivers
Your weekly reminder to start Cooper Kupp. Its my schtick. I also believe it wholeheartedly. It will be here. Every week. Without Fail (EVEN ON LARs BYE!). Deal with it.
Lets move on…
Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars have one of if not the best defense in the NFL again this year. But even the Jags will need to score early and often to keep pace with KC and their “Patomic Bombs.” In steps Dede Westbrook who has been Blake Bortles’ most consistent receiver so far this season. Fun fact – Bortles owns a 5.3 a-Dot this year as is displayed visually by his propensity to check it down and throw it close to the line of scrimmage. Slot-man Westbrook will again most likely be the man closest to Bortles on most of his drop backs. Starting Dede should be an easy decision.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Green Bay Packers
I’ll admit it. I have no fancy stats in favor of MVS being a quality play this week. The Lions boast one of the leagues best pass defenses and “Big Play” Slay will likely be shadowing Scantling in this one if Adams ends up missing the game. I don’t care. I roll with Rodgers and currently MVS is in line to make his first career start as Green Bay’s #1 receiver. MVS showed well in the preseason and my choosing him as a start this week is more a vote of confidence in Rodgers ability to make his receivers great than anything MVS has done as of yet. Come on Rodgers… repay my faith and make me look smart.
Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals
Kirk showed some early chemistry with fellow rookie Josh Rosen in the pair’s first game together to the tune of 7 targets. This was good enough for a 26% target share, an excellent rate that bodes well for future production. This week expect improved performances from Kirk, Fitzgerald, and RSJ against a niners secondary that is no stranger to giving up points via the air. The absence of Richard Sherman will also help Kirk this week.
Sit These Wide Receivers
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
He’s playing the Rams… never a good sign. Unfortunately that isn’t even the main issue with starting Lockett this week. Co-receiver Doug Baldwin has returned to take over slot duties for the Seattle Seahawks and that is really the only position LAR is vulnerable to. Relegated to the outside, Lockett will likely line up against Marcus Peters and as good as he’s been this season I don’t expect Lockett to win that battle. I expect a long, fruitless day for Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and the rest of the Seahawks offense.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns
I’ve already mentioned Baltimore’s amazing pass defense on multiple occasions in this article and Jarvis will be coming up against that unit. As his teams bonafide WR1 he will likely draw the coverage of Jimmy Smith in this one, further hampering his chances of having a great game. Its hard for me to envision a scenario in which Landry excels in a game I have pegged his QB, Baker Mayfield, to struggle in so I’m willing to go down with that ship if I must. Sit your Browns in Week 5.
Quincy Enunwa, New York Jets
Chris Harris is bad news for slot receivers and Quincy Enunwa is a slot receiver. Ergo Chris Harris is bad news for Quincy Enunwa. If I’m honest though I doubt Sam Darnold will even have the time to get the ball out to his No. 1 receiver as I expect Von Miller and Bradley Chubb will have Sam Darnold on skates for most of this one. I’m a Broncos fan, I’m biased, but I don’t think I’m going too far out on a limb in saying I anticipate the Broncos will be able to shut down this anemic Jets offense without breaking too much of a sweat. I like Quincy Enunwa and if you’ve been following FantraxHQ’s starts and sits so far this season you’ll have seen him in my starts more often than not but do yourself a favor and sit him this week.
Start These Tight Ends
Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh Steelers
You still playing that Vance vs. Conte stiff arm vs the Bucs on repeat? Yeah? Me too. That aside McDonald has clearly assumed the role of Pittsburgh’s TE1, commanding 5 targets in each of his games since he returned to the field in Week 2. The Steelers, as they are every week, are in line for a shootout vs. the high-powered Atlanta Falcons offense. This will mean more opportunities for all of Pittsburgh’s pass catchers. Lets all do the Vance dance this week. Especially if you missed out on the Eric Ebron career game (He would have been in my starts as well this week but my editor said this has got to be posted on Fridays).
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
Kittle is head and shoulders above every other target in that SF offense and it showed in C.J. Beathard’s first start in 2018. So far Kittle has recorded no fewer than seven targets per game, good enough for fifth among tight ends so far this season. He also ranks fourth in snap share percentage according to the incredibly useful playerprofiler website. He’s an athletic marvel, and the 49ers will have to keep airing it out this season to give themselves a chance. Fire up Kittle this week and for the foreseeable future.
Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins
Aside from maybe Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed is the most physically gifted TE in the league. His QB, Alex Smith, is averaging the second lowest a-DOT of his career this season at just 6.6 yards. With these two factors considered, its easy to see how Chris Thompson and Reed have been Smith’s two most used targets this year as these two are generally the closest targets to the line of scrimmage. Expect this to continue. The New Orleans Saints fifth worst ranked pass defense should only help Reed capitalize on the 6.66 targets Reed has averaged so far.
Sit These Tight Ends
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
I think Cousins will struggle this week and I am of the opinion that Rudolph will find life difficult as well as a result. The Eagles also aren’t a very giving defense against TEs, surrendering just 8.5 fantasy points per game (T4th NFL) to the position. Rudolph will likely be a TD or bust play this week, though it must be stated that any TE that breathes cant really be labelled as a bad play with the current state of the position in 2018.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Hayden Hurst is scheduled to return to the Ravens lineup this week and that can only be bad news for mark Andrews. Though it may take more than one week, I expect Andrews to quickly return to his TE2 role as the Ravens will welcome back the more versatile Hurst. The difference between the two is that Hurst’s ability as a blocker doesn’t tip off the defense to the Ravens plans. When Andrews is in the game a pass is almost assured. QB Joe Flacco has also been on a tear that screams regression and I wont be surprised to see some of that in this game. Keep searching for a start-able TE this week.
Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons
The definition of a TD or bust play, Austin Hooper has only cracked the double-digit fantasy point mark once this season. The fault isn’t all his though. He simply finds himself in an offense with too many options and thus has seen fewer than five targets in three out of his four games so far. If Julio Jones, Mohammed Sanu, Calvin Ridley, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman find themselves all covered by the leagues fourth worst pass defense this week you can expect a solid day out of Austin Hooper in Week 5.
Start These Defenses
LAR@SEA
TEN@BUF
DEN@NYJ
Sit These Defenses
ATL@PIT
OAK@LAC
ARZ@SF
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