The calendar has flipped to May, and the baseball season is heating up. Some players are playing unexpectedly well, while others have struggled to get going. This weekly write-up helps you navigate tricky lineup and waiver wire decisions by covering the week’s hot and cold players from a fantasy perspective. Let’s go ahead and look at some Week 6 risers and fallers for fantasy baseball!
Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers
Stats from 4/29 – 5/5
Risers
Jurickson Profar (OF — SDP)
Jurickson Profar was a hitting machine last week. He collected a league-leading 12 hits, including two home runs, and swiped a bag for good measure. Profar has been one of the league’s most productive bats. On the season, he has five home runs, 20 runs scored, 23 RBI, and two stolen bases across 142 plate appearances. He’s also sporting a career-high .962 OPS and .373 xwOBA.
Profar is making better quality contact this season. His 41.2% hard-hit rate is a 10-point gain from his career average, and he’s hitting line drives at a robust 29% clip. Combine that with an elite 92.1% zone contact rate, and Profar is very relevant this season.
Andy Pages (OF — LAD)
Andy Pages continues to hit the ground running since being called up in mid-April. He had nine hits in 26 at-bats last week (.346), including a couple of home runs. He also added four runs scored and seven RBI to his weekly total.
It’s a small sample size, but the power is there with Pages. He has four home runs in 17 games to go with a .240 ISO and a 45.3% hard-hit rate. The main concern is that Pages has yet to walk and is chasing pitches outside the zone nearly 40% of the time. It’s also unclear if he’ll remain with the big-league club once Jason Heyward returns off the IL. However, scoop Pages up in 15-team leagues while he’s swinging a hot bat. He’s also serviceable in 12-teamers, giving fantasy managers cheap access to run production opportunities in a potent Dodgers lineup.
Willi Castro (SS/3B/OF — MIN)
The Minnesota Twins have been firing on all cylinders thanks to some summer sausage magic. Willi Castro led the team last week with nine hits, including four extra-base efforts. He was also aggressive on the basepaths, stealing three bags on four attempts, and finished with a .191 wRC+.
Castro can come in handy if you need a boost in the speed department. He has four stolen bases on seven attempts this season. While his 57% success rate isn’t ideal, Castro is still getting the green light to run. Plus, he led the Twins in stolen bases last season with 33 swipes across 124 games. Casto is getting on base at an above-average clip (.339 OBP) and could have another 20-25 steals in him, especially if he can improve his success rate on the basepaths. Plus, his multi-position eligibility is an added bonus.
Garrett Crochet (SP — CWS)
Garrett Crochet had quite the bounce-back week. Across two starts, he allowed a combined three earned runs on five hits. Crochet also racked up 13 strikeouts to only one walk across 11 innings of work. The outings were encouraging, given Crochet surrendered at least five earned runs in each of his previous three starts.
Crochet is rostered in 82% of Fantrax leagues and only 53% of Yahoo leagues, as fantasy baseball managers likely dumped him due to his previous poor outings. But that needs to be fixed. Crochet has a 2.87 xFIP and 2.63 SIERA, meaning he’s pitched better than his bloated 5.31 ERA indicates. Additionally, his 26.8% K-BB% ranks fourth among pitchers this season. There will likely be ups and downs with Crochet, and he won’t get a ton of run support, but Crochet should be rostered in all formats.
Fallers
MJ Melendez (C/OF — KCR)
MJ Melendez went 3-for-20 on the week and put up goose eggs in runs scored and RBI. He also stole a base, but that doesn’t really move the needle on his underwhelming week.
Overall, Melendez is making less quality contact this season. His 39.2% hard-hit rate is a 10-point drop from 2023. He also isn’t elevating the ball, leading to a career-worst 50% groundball rate on the year (career 38.6%). Melendez can turn things around, but in the meantime, he’s dropped from the middle of the order to hitting seventh in five of his last six games.
Bo Naylor (C — CLE)
Bo Naylor had a rough week. While he hit his first career grand slam, it was his only hit across 19 at-bats. He also struck out 50% of the time. On the season, Naylor is slashing .179/.281/.298 with a 71 wRC+ across 96 plate appearances. Naylor makes quality contact when he hits the ball (46.8% hard-hit rate). However, his contact rates are down across the board, and his 38.5% strikeout rate underpins his paltry slash line.
Naylor hasn’t lost any playing time, but that could change if he continues swinging a cold bat. He should be sitting on waiver wires in 12-team leagues but is still a hold in 15-teamers.
Lars Nootbaar (OF — STL)
Lars Nootbaar had a down week, going 3-for-24 with one double and one run scored. He also struck out at an uncharacteristic 32% clip and hasn’t hit higher than sixth in the order in his last three games.
Nootbaar is about three weeks removed from coming off the IR with fractured ribs. On the surface, his .175/.267/.288 slash line and 62 wRC+ across 91 plate appearances is ugly. However, a look under the hood shows his plate discipline and quality of contact metrics are consistent with career norms. Plus, his expected stats indicate brighter days are ahead (.251 wOBA vs .342 xwOBA). Better results should be coming for Nootbaar, but he may stay buried in the lineup until they do.
Reid Detmers (SP — LAA)
Reid Detmers has come crashing down following a red-hot start to the season. In his last outing against Cleveland, Detmers coughed up seven earned runs on five hits, including three home runs. He also walked four and struck out seven across 5.2 innings. It was the third consecutive start that Detmers allowed at least four earned runs.
Detmers has had command issues, and his improved fastball — which underpinned his strong start — has become less effective. While Detmers is not a comfortable start right now, he’s still an above-average pitcher. He has a solid 18.7% K-BB% and 13.4% SwStr% on the season. Plus, his 4.24 ERA comes with a 3.56 xFIP. However, I’d bench Detmers until he can string together a couple of strong starts.