As key players return in Week 6 from injuries and byes, others become unavailable due to injuries and byes. This is fantasy football. We as managers have to be locked in on a daily basis from here on out, if you haven’t been already. Knowing which players to add/drop and start/sit is the difference between winning and losing your weekly matchups. Identifying Week 6 risers and fallers, and discussing a key player on the hot seat can help with this process.
The players below are a mix of obvious studs and some others you may justifiably still have reservations about heading into Week 6. I’m including this particular group of players because I think they’re more important to discuss than others. Before you dive in, feel free to review my Week 5 risers, fallers, and the player on the hot seat that I named before last weekend.
Week 6 Risers, Fallers, and a Player on the Hot Seat
Risers
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
I cannot go another week without including Tank Bigsby on the risers list. He only has 34 total carries this season, but leads the league in yards per carry (8.0!!!) having run for 273 total yards. This is after a 101 yard rushing game on just 13 carries in Week 5. Travis Etienne has rushed for 42 less yards than Bigsby on 19 more carries. Even more significant, Bigsby totaled 129 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5 with 14 total touches on just 23 snaps, one snap more than Travis Etienne.
I think it’s important to realize that Travis Etienne likely won’t take a complete backseat to Bigsby. Etienne has 22 total targets to Bigsby’s lone target in Week 5. That includes seven targets for Etienne in Week 5, the Jaguars’ first win of the season. Etienne is also averaging a respectable 4.4 yards per carry. This backfield is more of a split than expected prior to the season.
So, while Bigsby leads the Week 6 riser list, I don’t foresee him commanding a true workhorse role unless Etienne becomes unavailable due to injury or perhaps a trade. Either way, Bigsby must be on fantasy rosters everywhere. Managers with players on bye or out due to injury can start Bigsby in Week 6, as well. He and the Jaguars are traveling to London to face the Chicago Bears. Their defense is giving up a noteworthy 4.97 yards per carry to running backs this season. Another dominant game, with perhaps more opportunities and production than Etienne, tips the scale more in favor of Bigsby.
Juju Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
I’m going to mention Juju Smith-Schuster on the Week 6 risers list despite he and the Chiefs being on their bye. We now know Rashee Rice will miss the remainder of the 2024 season after a knee/hamstring injury. In the Chiefs’ first full game without Rice, in Week 5, Smith-Schuster played a season-high 56 snaps (67%) tied with Xavier Worthy for second-most amongst Chiefs wide receivers behind only Justin Watson (59, 70%).
More importantly, Juju Smith-Schuster logged eight targets in Week 5, the second-most behind Travis Kelce (10). His 23.5% target share yielded seven receptions for a team-high 130 receiving yards. In Rashee Rice’s absence, Smith-Schuster played the “Rashee Rice role.” His 82 yards after the catch ranks second amongst wide receivers in Week 5 behind only Ja’Marr Chase (97).
I have some reservations with Juju Smith-Schuster, however. It was just over a year ago that reports came out concerning Smith-Schuster’s knee, though he claims he was only “60% healthy” last season. He certainly looked healthy in Week 5, but he does have a lengthy injury history. More tangibly, the Chiefs rank 17th this season in pass attempts per game (32.0). That’s down from 37.3 (3rd) in 2023 and even 37.9 (5th) in 2022 when Juju Smith-Schuster was last on the team. When he was last with the Chiefs, he logged 101 targets before he was replaced the following season…with second-round pick, Rashee Rice.
Patrick Mahomes has targeted eight different players on average per game, this season. Despite being the NFL’s only undefeated team, it still feels like the Chiefs are trying to find an offensive groove amidst multiple key injuries: Hollywood Brown, Isiah Pacheco, and Rashee Rice. Juju Smith-Schuster could be a huge factor in establishing a groove, but it’s easier to judge with more than a one-game sample size. He was a nobody in fantasy football this time last week. Now he could be a major somebody. He deserves to be on the risers list and should be on rosters everywhere.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott is one of just four quarterbacks to average 20.0 or more fantasy points per game last season. He had a significant stretch from Weeks 6 through 14 as fantasy football’s QB1 averaging a whopping 27.0 points per game. We may be gearing up for a similar stretch for Dak Prescott in 2024. That’s what lands him on the Week 6 risers list.
Prescott has two passing touchdowns in each of his last three games. He also has two games with 350 or more passing yards. Those matchups were against tough Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers defenses.
The schedule softens up significantly for Dak Prescott moving forward. From here on out, 10 out of 11 matchups for Dak Prescott are defenses currently inside the top half of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. That includes six matchups against defenses ranking inside the top 10.
Then consider Prescott’s weapons. He has Ceedee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, and Jalen Tolbert leading the way in the passing game. Jalen Tolbert deserves a quick mention on the Week 6 risers list after a career day in Week 5 posting a 7/87/1 receiving line on 10 targets that includes a game-winning touchdown. Dallas currently ranks second in pass attempts per game (38.8) and doesn’t have a run game worth raving about. Moving forward, all things considered, Dak Prescott is on the Week 6 risers list with expectations of solidifying himself as a top-10 fantasy quarterback with a top-5 upside.
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions’ offense quite literally runs through this backfield tandem. Both Jahmyr Gibbs, 54 carries for 285 yards, and David Montgomery, 63 carries for 271 yards, are averaging 4.3 or more yards per carry this season. Together they account for 92% of the Lions’ run game production. When you then factor in their receiving production, Gibbs and Montgomery account for 44% of the offense’s total yardage this season.
David Montgomery has 70 or more all-purpose yards and exactly one rushing touchdown in all four games played this season. Jahmyr Gibbs has scored four touchdowns of his own across three of four games but notably has 78 or more rushing yards in each of the Lions’ last three contests. As a result, Gibbs currently ranks as the RB7 with 17.8 fantasy points per game while Montgomery is right behind him as the RB8 with 17.4 points per game.
Both running backs are Week 6 risers in a fantasy-friendly matchup coming out of their Week 5 bye. They’ll head to Dallas to take on a Cowboys defense who are still without DeMarcus Lawrence and DaRon Bland, as they’re both on Injured Reserve. Micah Parsons appears to be on the wrong side of questionable, as well, with an ankle injury.
Against one of the best offensive lines in the game and a high-powered run game, the Cowboys’ defense will have their hands full containing both Montgomery and Gibbs in Week 6. While Dallas has done a decent job against the run as of late, I cannot forget both Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry each totaling 170+ all-purpose yards, in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively, and scoring six total touchdowns against the Cowboys. There’s a good chance both Montgomery and Gibbs find the end zone in Week 6, perhaps more than once, on Sunday.
Beyond this week, the Lions face the Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans who both currently rank bottom-five in rushing yards allowed to opposing running backs. They also rank bottom-12 in receiving yards allowed to the position. These will be tougher tests than the Cowboys, but both running backs are producing efficiently with enough volume that they both belong in fantasy lineups every week.
Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, New England Patriots
I’ll end the Week 6 risers list with a rookie that is worth stashing on your bench. Ja’Lynn Polk is a possession receiver, though he has just nine receptions this season. However, most rookies take time to get acclimated to the NFL. Polk is starting to get acclimated.
Over the last two weeks, Polk has drawn seven and six targets respectively in each game. His 13 total targets are more than double his six total targets across his first three games. Polk’s 13 total targets in Weeks 4 and 5 are also a team-high.
More significantly, Polk ran a route on 100% of the Patriots’ dropbacks in Week 5. That’s up from 87% in Week 4 and no more than 69% in any of the first three games. In Week 6, rookie quarterback, Drake Maye, is getting the nod over Jacoby Brissett. Assuming Polk continues his recent elite utilization, he could and should develop into Maye’s top receiver. In Points Per Reception leagues, Polk has a chance to be an every-week starter with an incredibly safe floor. You probably shouldn’t start him in Week 6 until we see a full game with Maye under center, but Polk is definitely a riser heading into Week 6.
Fallers
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud and the Texans are having a fantastic start. They’re 4-1 with a two-game lead on the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South. Unfortunately, real-life success doesn’t always translate to fantasy football. And C.J. Stroud is a better real-life quarterback than a fantasy football quarterback.
Stroud, last season’s QB11 on a fantasy points-per-game basis as a rookie, is this season’s QB14 thus far. A glaring issue with Stroud for fantasy football is his lack of production on the ground. He has 68 total rush yards so far this season and is without a rushing touchdown. That said, he’s averaging just 1.36 fantasy points per game as a runner.
So, C.J. Stroud must be a consistently elite producer through the air to make starting him in fantasy football worthwhile. So far, so good with 277 passing yards per game, seven passing touchdowns, and just three interceptions.
Unfortunately, the biggest contributor to Stroud’s success, Nico Collins, is now heading to Injured Reserve with a hamstring injury. Collins leads the league with 567 receiving yards and is the only player averaging more than 100 yards per game through the air. Specifically for Stroud’s value, Collins’ production accounts for 40.9% of Stroud’s passing yards, 42.8% of his passing touchdowns, and 40.7% of Stroud’s fantasy points.
Stroud still has Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and others at his disposal, but we haven’t seen anyone but Diggs step up significantly yet this season. Until we do, I don’t think Stroud is a must-start in 1QB leagues. It’s hard to imagine he’s better than he is now without Nico Collins. If he is, then you may see him on a future risers list with an apology from me.
Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints
The Saints are a ways away from where they were to begin the season. After scoring 91 total points in their first two games, New Orleans has managed just 46 total points over their last three games. Here’s how the fantasy points per game compare for notable Saints players between their first two games and Weeks 3 through 5:
Weeks 1 + 2: Derek Carr – 22.1 / Alvin Kamara – 33.0 / Chris Olave – 8.0 / Rashid Shaheed – 18.6
Weeks 3, 4, 5: Derek Carr – 10.5 / Alvin Kamara – 17.7 / Chris Olave – 13.4 / Rashid Shaheed – 11.4
Now, to make matters worse, Derek Carr is “week-to-week” with an oblique injury suffered in Week 5. In his place with be rookie Spencer Rattler. While this is an expected downgrade to the entire offense, Rashid Shaheed is going on the Week 6 fallers list because I believe it hurts him the most.
Rashid Shaheed is proven to be Derek Carr’s preferred downfield threat. He ranks third in total air yards (570), just one yard behind Justin Jefferson. Shaheed also ranks second in air yards per receptions (30.0) amongst wide receivers with 15 or more receptions this season.
All three of Shaheed’s receiving touchdowns this season are receptions of distances 43 yards or further. Shaheed has 71.5 total fantasy points and 53% of them (38.2 points) are a result of his touchdowns. That includes the reception, the points for yards, and six points for each touchdown itself.
The absence of a connection with Derek Carr could be fatal to Shaheed’s value. We can’t drop him from rosters just yet, if at all, but you’re playing with dynamite plugging him into your Week 6 lineups. Until we see Spencer Rattler play, the entire Saints offense is full of risk. However, I believe in Klint Kubiak’s offense. Chris Olave should see a heavy majority of targets while Alvin Kamara maintains a high volume of touches, as well.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
After surviving Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors late in the off-season, George Pickens has been extremely underwhelming as the clear-cut top receiver on the Steelers’ offense this season. George Pickens has just two weeks where he (barely) finished inside the top-25 wide receivers. Pickens’ season-high fantasy points total is 16.3 and he has two games with less than 6.0 points, including Week 5.
I do think Pickens is talented, but he has a lot working against him, including his own demeanor at times. More than anything, coaching has the most significant impact on Pickens’ value right now. He played a season-low 59% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps in Week 5. Head coach Mike Tomlin, when asked why, claimed the Steelers “…just wanted to kind of minimize his reps in an effort to get more productivity…” I’m sorry, what?
Moving forward, Pickens has three games before the Steelers’ Week 9 bye: @ Raiders, v. Jets, v. Giants. All three teams rank 15th or lower in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. The schedule does open up after the bye for Pickens but, for now, he’s on the Week 6 fallers list. He’s still worth starting based on volume alone if necessary. Pickens has seven or more targets in four of five games this season. Let’s just hope he does something with them.
The Week 6 Hot Seat
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
I’ve got good news and bad news for the Week 6 hot seat. Let’s start with the bad news first.
The Bad News: Breece Hall has 10.5 total fantasy points in his last two games. He’s yielded just 18 and 37 total yards respectively in each game, as well. Additionally, Hall’s backfield counterpart, rookie Braelon Allen, has just 9.4 total fantasy points over the Jets’ last two games. However, Allen has scored just shy of Hall’s point total on 12 less opportunities (carries + targets). Drafted as the overall RB1 in some leagues, Breece Hall is the RB21 on a points per game basis this season.
The Good News: The New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills in Week 6. While Breece Hall is on the Week 6 hot seat, this is a “get right” matchup for he and the entire Jets offense. Buffalo has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. That includes allowing the most receptions (36), receiving yards (312), and receiving touchdowns (3) to the position. Breece Hall is one of the best receiving backs in the game. Additionally, while Allen is mixing in here and there, and looks good doing so, Hall still dominates the snap count between them 239 to 98 this season. Breece Hall should continue to serve as the lead back against the Bills.
I cannot finish this Week 6 hot seat discussion without mentioning the coaching change. Jets head coach Robert Saleh was fired earlier this week. It’s unclear how this will impact the locker room. More importantly, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett is still employed. So, it begs the question if the head coaching change really has an impact at all on the offense. All things considered, you should still start Breece Hall in Week 6 in a very good matchup. If he underperforms and underwhelms, the hot seat gets much, much hotter for this 2024 fantasy first round pick.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!