With another week down, let’s keep things going. We have another week of survivor picks on tap for you, so follow along. Let’s continue to sweat along with our survivor picks as we progress through the season. There was an ugly Thursday night loss by Washington followed by Baltimore coming up short so it was a mixed week with our tails (2-2). On the fades side, Buffalo did come up short in London against the Jaguars.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 5 of the NFL season. Prior to the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 6 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
I know that Cooper Kupp is back, but I have a hard time believing that the Rams are 6.5 points better than another team. Yes, they are playing Joshua Dobbs and the 1-4 Cardinals, but for the most part, Arizona has been competitive. But we are only looking for a winner here. And the combination of Matthew Stafford and Kupp can get there. When you factor in a strong running game led by Kyren Williams and the emergence of Puka Nacua, then the Rams are a solid competitor.
So far this season, Los Angeles ranks eighth in total yardage and 15th in points scored while their defense is roughly league average. Things could be difficult for Arizona as James Conner is not fully healthy and his status for Week 6 is up in the air. Without Conner, things could be that much more difficult for Dobbs and I like the home team to pull out a victory.
While Dobbs has done his best to keep Arizona in the game, his defense has made things that much more difficult. Arizona is 28th in the league with 399 yards allowed while allowing 27 points per game. This is a matchup that favors the Rams.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
We know that playing in Kansas City is never an easy endeavor. The fact that it is a prime-time matchup makes that much tougher for the Broncos.
Denver is not exactly entering Thursday’s game from a position of strength after they lost at home to the Jets. Targeting the Broncos with one of our survivor picks is going to continue to be a prudent strategy. Again, divisional matchups are tough, and Russell Wilson actually has one more touchdown pass and eight more passing yards than Patrick Mahomes. Based on how the season has gone for Denver to this point though, playing from behind has been an ongoing trend.
Despite being 4-1, you could make the argument that Kansas City has failed to really get going yet this season. With that being said, their defense is ranked fifth in the league allowing just 16 points per game. Opposing offenses aren’t moving the ball either with the Chiefs allowing just 316 yards per game. On the other side of the field, the Broncos are allowing the most points in the league at 36 per game.
Nothing I have seen from the Broncos to this point gives me much to feel confident about.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants
Quite simply, this is just not fair. Another team to target with our survivor picks continues to be the New York Giants.
Last week, a defensive touchdown against the Miami Dolphins made the final score look at least slightly competitive, but the Giants never had a chance. While Daniel Jones did exit with a neck injury, his safety and well-being have been at stake since Week 1. The Giants’ offensive line has been simply offensive. While the injury to Andrew Thomas didn’t help, the entire unit struggled to keep opposing defenders out of the offensive backfield. The potential return of Saquon Barkley really doesn’t change anything either as he will struggle to find room to run. And with the Giants trailing, the run game quickly leaves the equation.
While the Bills did play in London last week, they come back to the States losers after a comeback effort against the Jaguars fell short. Buffalo is clearly the better team here and they will not lose two in a row, especially with this one at home.
Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers
While the best way to gain experience is by being on the field, at some point, we might have to question things with Bryce Young. The rookie signal-caller has simply looked lost to begin the season, and the clock is ticking as to when he might need to regroup on the bench.
The fact that the Panthers and Miles Sanders have failed to really generate a running game doesn’t help, but the Panthers’ offense has been anemic. Sanders has just 158 rushing yards on the season he is averaging less than three yards per carry. Things are even worse for Young with just 503 passing yards and two touchdowns in four games. While he did finish with 247 yards and three touchdowns last week against Detroit, it was very much a garbage-time situation.
At this point, the Dolphins’ offense is truly a force to be reckoned with as they are first in total yards and points scored. They do give up their fair share of points, but for the most part, it has come after their offense has put the game away; with the exception of their one loss to Buffalo. The Carolina defense is allowing 141 rushing yards and 29 points per game this season and it will be another long day for them.
Games to Fade
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets
I might be crazy here, but I am avoiding the road Eagles with my survivor picks for this week. New York is coming off a victory in Denver in which Zach Wilson only threw for 199 yards in what was supposed to be a good matchup against Denver. Wilson failed to find the end zone while throwing an interception and had some rocky moments, but he did enough to grab the victory.
The Eagles escaped Los Angeles with a victory against the Rams, and Philadelphia hasn’t looked incredibly sharp this season. With that being said, they are 5-0 while ranking second in total yards and fifth in points overall. On the defensive side, both teams are essentially equal at about 21 points per game allowed.
At some point, Philadelphia has to lose, and it’s possible New York has found some confidence. Now, they return home after a victory against Denver with a different narrative for the first time in weeks. With a prime-time matchup against the Dolphins in Week 7, it’s also possible that the Eagles overlook the Jets. This could end up looking foolish, but there is also a reason why the spread is coming in at less than a touchdown (6.5), or is there?
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Kansas City, Philadelphia, Miami, Buffalo
Line 2
Washington, Buffalo, San Francisco, Kansas City, Detroit, Miami
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