Week 7 is underway and there are some interesting matchups ahead of us. Six NFL teams are on a bye, so the choices are a bit more limited than normal. But you know that I am always scouring the board for some edges, and I have found a few props that I really like. Remember to do your research and only wager what you are comfortable with. Here are my three favorite NFL Player Props for Week 7.
Week 7 NFL Player Props
Gardner Minshew To Throw an Interception (-130, DraftKings)
This is not a market I usually play. This will be my first interception bet of the 2023 season. However, this feels like as good a time as any to jump on one. The Cleveland Browns have not had much luck in the turnover department this season. They have only forced four turnovers in five games despite being a dominant unit. Cleveland pressures the quarterback on an NFL-high 40 percent of dropbacks. They also allow far and away the fewest yards per game in the league. This feels like a great spot for some turnover regression when they face Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis Colts.
Minshew has not exactly thrived when under duress to put it mildly. He is tied with Mac Jones for the NFL lead in turnover-worthy plays when under pressure this season. What is even worse for the mustachioed one is that Minshew has not even been pressured that often. His 54 dropbacks under pressure are tied for 28th most among NFL quarterbacks. Minshew’s 12.7 percent TWP rate dwarfs the next-highest among starting quarterbacks (Jones’ 8.6 percent mark). That is a bad number given the matchup he is about to face. Minshew just threw three interceptions a week ago in an ugly loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. We may not get three, but I expect Cleveland to pick Minshew off at least once in this game. This is one of my favorite Week 7 NFL player props.
Jonnu Smith OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115, PointsBet)
I realize that the words “Jonnu Smith” may be a bit triggering for fantasy football players. Especially as they relate to the usage (or at times, like thereof) of Kyle Pitts. But we have to accept the fact that Smith is an important part of Atlanta’s passing game. And even better, hopefully, we can capitalize monetarily on it this week. Smith has posted weekly minimums of four receptions, five targets, and 36 receiving yards this season. He is also averaging a very healthy 11.3 yards per reception. Based on all of these numbers, it appears we are getting a very generous yardage number at 30.5. I have not seen reception props for Smith yet, but if the sportsbooks list that number at 3.5 or lower, I would be interested in that spot as well.
Smith has an interesting matchup in Week 7 when the Falcons travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. Tampa has allowed four tight ends to exceed 30 yards against them already this season. To their credit, though, they have faced several excellent tight ends. The Bucs have already gone up against T.J. Hockenson, Cole Kmet, Dallas Goedert, and Sam LaPorta. However, as I mentioned earlier, I think it is time we include Smith in the conversation when discussing the most productive tight ends so far this year. LaPorta and Mark Andrews are the only other tight ends who have recorded at least 35 receiving yards in every game they have played this season. I see no reason why Smith cannot continue his excellent form this week, so I am taking the Over on his receiving yardage prop.
DK Metcalf OVER 56.5 Receiving Yards (-117, Caesars)
DK Metcalf has gone over this number in three of five games so far this season. But that is not what is drawing me to play his receiving yardage prop on Sunday. It is the matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. In particular, I am looking to attack their outside cornerbacks. Marco Wilson is most likely to draw the assignment to cover Metcalf. Metcalf lines up on the left side of the formation 63 percent of the time, while Wilson is on the right on 64 percent of snaps. To say Wilson had a difficult time containing production from opposing wide receivers this season would be an understatement. He ranks 103rd out of 112 qualified cornerbacks in Pro Football Focus’ coverage metric. Wilson has allowed an 80 percent catch rate and 2.01 yards per route covered on 232 routes this season. Yikes.
Metcalf is currently dealing with an injury to his ribs and hip area. He has yet to practice this week, so keep that in mind. If Metcalf is out or limited, I would be fine pivoting to Tyler Lockett. Lockett is only running 35 percent of his routes from the slot so far this year. He should see plenty of Wilson and Kei’Trel Clark, who has not fared much better than Wilson. Clark ranks 96th in coverage, allowing a 76 percent catch rate and 1.66 yards per route covered. But as long as Metcalf is in the lineup, he should dominate in this matchup. As long as he plays, I expect this number to potentially exceed 60 total yards by Sunday. Let’s take advantage of the discount and grab DK Metcalf to go over 56.5 receiving yards in this game.
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