Folks, I cannot sugarcoat it. This feels like an ugly week for those competing in survivor pools. There are a couple of factors that cause Week 7 to be a difficult one in which to make a pick. Being six weeks in and having a quartet of teams on bye means that up to 10 teams are not eligible for the taking this week. It doesn’t help matters that there are multiple matchups where seemingly bad teams are pitted against one another. This has the makings of a very volatile week. Let’s try to make sense of it with a look at my Week 7 Survivor Pool rankings.
Week 7 Survivor Pool Rankings
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs v. Cincinnati Bengals
It is not often that I endorse targeting a team who enters play with a 4-2 record. I have to admit that I certainly do not feel great in doing so. But last week, the Cincinnati Bengals proved for roughly the millionth time that they cannot win a statement game or come through in the clutch. They had a chance to put their division rivals in an early season hole, but predictably let Pittsburgh off the mat in a 28-21 home loss that resulted in just a half-game separating the top three teams in the AFC North. Cincinnati’s defense folded when it mattered most and has allowed 30 points per game on the road this year. Now the Bengals must head to Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs and their cast of offensive stars.
The Chiefs lost their first game of the season last week, though they still put up 40 points on Sunday night. Cincinnati’s best hope for a victory would be to win a shootout, as Kansas City’s defense is even worse than theirs. But Cincinnati actually ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in yards per game on offense. I simply do not trust their offense to keep up with the Chiefs. The Bengals have proven time and time again that they are not ready for prime time. I just do not trust Cincinnati to avoid a similar fate on Sunday night. It is certainly risky to put much stock in a defense as porous as Kansas City’s, but I am taking them as my Week 7 survivor pool pick.
Next Best Things
Atlanta Falcons v. New York Giants
New York has been a mess lately, and quarterback Eli Manning is under much scrutiny of late. But the offense hasn’t been the only problem for Big Blue lately. New York has allowed at least 33 points in three consecutive games, all losses. Now they head out on the road to face an Atlanta Falcons team that has scored at least 31 points in each of its four home games. I do not expect these numbers to suddenly reverse course on Monday night. The Falcons should put up plenty of points in this one.
At the same time, the Falcons are such a mess on defense that it is hard for me to fully endorse them, even in a matchup against Manning. I think Pat Shurmur is going to find a way to scheme Odell Beckham open down the field against a defense that has recorded just 10 sacks and allowed 16 touchdown passes. If all else fails, there’s always Saquon Barkley to bail Manning out. Barkley is on pace for well over 2,000 yards from scrimmage, including 995 through the air. The Falcons are perennially destroyed by pass-catching backs, and Monday night will likely be no different. I think Atlanta wins here, but I trust them just a shade less than I trust Kansas City, so they are just a notch below the Chiefs for me this week.
Indianapolis Colts v. Buffalo Bills
It is not often that you will see a 1-5 team favored by more than a touchdown, but such is the case this week when the Indianapolis Colts host the Buffalo Bills. The Bills currently sit at 2-4, but their offense has been highly ineffective to say the least. Buffalo has scored a league-low 76 points and has averaged just 123 passing yards through six weeks. Those numbers are particularly eyebrow-raising in this day and age of scoring and passing proficiency. Things don’t figure to get much better anytime soon, as starting quarterback Josh Allen will miss several weeks with UCL damage in his throwing elbow. The Bills will turn to Derek Anderson to start this game against the Colts. Yes, that Derek Anderson.
Anderson was signed less than two weeks ago and has thrown 168 NFL passes since 2010. But I suppose when the alternative is Nathan Peterman, Anderson might as well be Joe Montana in his prime. Anderson faces a Colts team that has allowed the second-most points in the NFL, including an ugly 117 over the last three weeks. It is Indianapolis’ defense that prevents them from a higher ranking on this list. As bad as Buffalo’s offense is, I cannot say with any confidence that the Colts will keep them from putting up points. The Colts should get the win here, but I would try to look elsewhere for my Week 7 survivor pool entry if possible.
Best of the Rest
Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets
It feels like the Minnesota Vikings have failed to reach preseason expectations, but they have still only lost two games through six weeks. They sit just a half game back of the Chicago Bears heading into a Week 7 game with the New York Jets. Minnesota’s defense has started to regain its 2017 form in the last two weeks. They have forced a total of four turnovers in consecutive victories over Philadelphia and Arizona. That bodes well heading into a matchup against rookie quarterback Sam Darnold.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings should be able to take advantage of a Jets’ secondary that will likely be without its starting free safety and two of its top cornerbacks. Wide receiver Adam Thielen is the first player in NFL history to post six straight 100-yard games to start the season, and that streak is likely to continue in this game. Minnesota should be able to get out in front and force New York to become one-dimensional on offense. I believe the Vikings will pick up a win in this game and emerge from Week 7 as leaders of the NFC North. Consider that a spoiler for my New England/Chicago pick.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Despite this game having Week 7’s highest point spread, I am not putting the Rams in the top spot this week (or even in the tier below) for a couple of reason. First is the obvious one, which is that I picked the Rams several weeks ago. If we are playing by the rules, I cannot take the Rams here. If you find yourself in a position where you have not taken them yet, I don’t mind doing so. However, I would caution against diving in with both feet without checking the water first.
I have gone against the 49ers in two of the last three weeks and have emerged successfully on each occasion. However, each one was a major sweat. San Francisco lost road games to the Los Angeles Chargers and Green Bay Packers by a combined five points. Green Bay was especially lucky to win on Monday night and likely would not have done so had they had a mere mortal playing quarterback. The 49ers are better than most people (myself included) have given them credit for. Keeping up with the Rams point for point will certainly be a tall order, but stranger things have happened. Buyer beware.
Favorites Who Should Win
Jacksonville Jaguars v. Houston Texans
The Houston Texans have bounced back after an 0-3 start to enter Week 7 tied for the division lead in the AFC South with Jacksonville and Tennessee. Houston has won three straight, but the quality of those victories is a bit questionable. They only beat Indianapolis because the Colts didn’t punt on fourth down at the end of overtime. The following week, they beat Dallas in overtime. And last week, they won in regulation for the first time this year, but only by scoring on a pick-six in the final minute of regulation against Nathan Peterman, who quite possibly is the worst quarterback in the entire NFL. So forgive me if I don’t expect them to win a divisional game on the road.
As shaky as Houston’s recent victories have been, at least they have had victories. The same cannot be said for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have lost two straight. The losses themselves are bad, but the manner in which they have lost is a bit surprising. Jacksonville has allowed 70 points in losing road games against Kansas City and Dallas. The loss to Dallas, in particular, was alarming. Dallas totaled 206 yards on the ground and held the ball for nearly 39 minutes against the Jaguars’ defense. Of particular interest when scouting this game was quarterback Dak Prescott rushing for 82 yards and a score. Houston is likely to employ a similar blueprint with dual-threat Deshaun Watson. I think the Jaguars will right the ship and win this game, but I do not want to risk them in survivor pools.
Philadelphia Eagles v. Carolina Panthers
The Eagles snapped a two-game skid with a 34-13 victory on the road against the Giants last week. Quarterback Carson Wentz hooked up with wide receiver Alshon Jeffery for two scores as the duo round into form following injuries which kept each out multiple games to begin the season. Jeffery has scored three times in as many games, and Wentz has averaged just under 300 passing yards per game with an 8:1 touchdown: interception ratio in four starts. Fresh off a long week, Philadelphia heads home to take on the visiting Carolina Panthers.
Carolina looks to bounce back from a Week 6 loss in Washington. The Panthers turned the ball over three times in the loss, including two lost fumbles by rookie wide receiver DJ Moore. Philadelphia was among the leaders in takeaways a year ago but has forced just six so far this season. I think their defense will force enough mistakes to come away from this game with a hard-fought victory. I would not go out of my way to back the Eagles in a survivor pool, but I think they emerge from Week 7 with a win.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Remember when the sky was falling in New England? Those were good times. To the surprise of very few, New England swept a three-game homestand and now sport the AFC’s second-best record. New England now embarks on what should be an interesting little stretch. The Patriots only play one more home game between now and December. The first game in this run is on Sunday when they head to Chicago to take on the Bears.
The Bears entered last week’s game as winners of three straight on the strength of their dominant defense. So, naturally, they allowed 541 total yards against an offense led by Brock Osweiler in a loss to Miami. The Bears’ defense has been particularly stingy at home, but they have also not faced the likes of Tom Brady and company. Chicago is right in the middle of the pack in terms of total passing yards allowed per game and ranks in the bottom third in yards per attempt. I think Brady is smart enough to get the ball out quickly and avoid the Bears’ vaunted pass rush. I believe the Patriots will find a way to get a win on Sunday.
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
I have to admit that as someone who does not think the Miami Dolphins are legitimate contenders despite being 4-2, I was quite surprised to see them open up the week as home underdogs against a last-place Lions team. That spread has only widened upon learning that Brock Osweiler will once again start in the place of Ryan Tannehill. Osweiler somehow pulled a rabbit out of his hat in last week’s game against Chicago, but I believe he will have difficulty repeating the trick this week against Detroit.
The Lions have played solid football since an embarrassing Week 1 home loss. Detroit has soundly defeated New England and Green Bay in two home games since. And while they are winless on the road, they lost their two road tilts by a combined five points. They are fresh off a bye week, and head coach Matt Patricia has historically had solid results against Osweiler-led offenses. I believe he will find a way to stymie Miami’s big-play passing offense and keep the Dolphins in check. Still, this is not a game I would go out of my way to target with my Week 7 survivor pool entry. I think Detroit will win, but I would look for a better spot to use them in a survivor pool.
It’s a Trap!
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (London)
Tennessee could not have looked worse last week, getting shutout by the Baltimore Ravens at home. Their offense looked anemic and they have now inexplicably been held out of the end zone in three of their past four games. The Chargers, meanwhile, looked quite impressive in a blowout victory against the Cleveland Browns. Los Angeles has won three straight and has only been bested by the Chiefs and Rams this season. But I just have a funny feeling about this game. It really feels like a trap to me.
I think a lot of my skepticism is based on the fact that this game is being played in London. This game is starting nearly four hours earlier than the typical East Coast game. The Chargers were one of three teams who proposed a rule change in the offseason limiting the number of early kickoffs that West Coast teams would be subject to, so they are clearly aware of the negative effect an early start can have. Los Angeles has attempted to mitigate the travel concerns by spending the week in Cleveland before heading to London. But I think this only proves that the early start time is in their heads a bit. I still believe their talent will win out, but I would not go out of my way to take the Chargers in this spot.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
One of the more intriguing matchups on the Week 7 slate takes place in Baltimore where the Ravens will host the New Orleans Saints. This will be a classic “strength versus strength” battle. Baltimore leads the NFL in points allowed per game, yards allowed per game, and sacks. New Orleans leads the league averaging 36 points per game on offense and are the only team yet to throw for an interception. The Saints have also allowed just eight sacks, tied for second-best in the NFL.
In matchups like these, I tend to favor the defense, especially at home. That is why I am going with the Ravens here. However, I personally do not want to sweat out my entry on going against Drew Brees and Sean Payton. That is not often a winning formula. That is why I would prefer to simply enjoy this matchup and look elsewhere for my Week 7 survivor pool pick.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Cleveland Browns played their worst game of the season in last week’s 38-14 defeat at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers. Cleveland now finds themselves in a familiar position – last place in the AFC North. But this is not the same doormat from seasons past. Up until last week, the Browns had been highly competitive each and every week. I expect another closely contested battle when Cleveland heads south to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tampa has lost three straight after winning their first two games of the season. Through five games, the Buccaneers have simultaneously had one of the best passing offenses and one of the worst passing defenses we have ever seen. Offensively, they average a shade under 10 yards per attempt and 368 yards per game. On defense, they allow 9.3 yards per attempt and 356 yards per game. If nothing else, this should be an entertaining contest between two nNo. 1 overall picks in the NFL Draft. I think this one is too close to call and will be staying away in survivor pools.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Washington and Dallas each earned much-needed home victories last week. Washington staved off Carolina despite a myriad of injuries, and Dallas throttled Jacksonville. Both of these teams have to feel good off of last week’s performances. But they have also both struggled to find consistency, which casts a cloud of doubt heading into this NFC East showdown. Neither team has won or lost consecutive games this year.
There are arguments to be made on both sides. Dallas has swept the season series in each of the last two seasons. However, the Cowboys are also 0-3 on the road this year. Washington has been one of the better teams in the league defensively this season. But has historically struggled to keep Ezekiel Elliott in check. Ultimately, you are doing yourself a disservice if you waste a survivor pool entry on a divisional game where both seems are consistently inconsistent. This game is a hard pass for me.
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
I get that Arizona is in rebuilding mode and is not a very good football team. But are we really confident backing a road favorite who has lost four consecutive games? Especially one who has allowed a 200-yard rusher in back-to-back games and now must travel to face David Johnson on a short week? One who is led by Case Keenum, who is tied for the NFL lead with eight interceptions? If you can exhibit any confidence in taking the Denver Broncos as a potential Week 7 survivor pool pick, then you are clearly seeing something I am not.
At the same time, let’s not assume that Arizona is any great shakes either. The Cardinals have just one victory on the season and have one of the league’s worst offenses. Arizona sports the third-worst point differential in the NFL and only the Buffalo Bills have scored fewer points than Arizona this season. This is a game I want absolutely no part of. I will stay far away from this game with my entry.
Mick Ciallela has been writing for FantraxHQ since July 2017. He has also written for Bleacher Report. He is a lifelong sports fan and has been an avid fantasy sports player for many years. Mick was the Overall Champion of both the 2016 Football Challenge – Roto and 2017 Play 3 Football contests hosted by CDM Sports. Mick was born and raised in Mount Vernon, New York and currently resides in New London, Connecticut.
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