Week 8 features all 32 NFL teams in action for the first time in nearly a month. That means there are plenty of player props to pick from. I have found a couple of lines that I think are a bit out of whack, so hopefully, we can make the most of them. My third Week 8 NFL player prop is a rare (for me at least) under. Those can get a bit sweaty, but I am trusting the data. Let me know what you think in the comments below and let’s cash some tickets this week!
Week 8 NFL Player Props
Tank Dell OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Tank Dell is reportedly back at full strength after missing last week’s game due to a concussion. He returns to a matchup that could not be much better. The Panthers play zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL. Yet they are not very good at it. They allow the fourth-most yards per coverage snap and yards per target while in zone coverage. Dell leads Houston in targets per route run against zone this year at 25.6 percent. He is also averaging 2.72 yards per route run versus zone this year. With Robert Woods missing this game due to a foot injury, Dell should be close to a full-time player this week. Besides all of that, there is another – some would say even better – reason to invest in Tank Dell on Sunday. Sunday is Dell’s birthday! If that does not scream “BUY”, I don’t know what does.
Birthday narratives aside, Dell has at least 57 receiving yards in three of his last four games, which is encouraging as it is. But I believe even that is a bit misleading. He only played the first half in his last game before suffering the concussion. If he had accumulated more yardage in that game, or if he had not missed his team’s last game, I highly doubt we would be seeing a 45.5-yardage prop. I think we are getting a discounted number here, and I am taking full advantage of it. Give me all of the Tank Dell this week. I think sprinkling on yardage ladder and touchdown props is warranted as well given all of the data. I am taking the over on Tank Dell’s total receiving yards as my favorite Week 8 NFL player prop.
Cam Akers OVER 39.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-112, BetRivers)
On Monday night, Cam Akers earned 13 opportunities compared to 11 for Alexander Mattison. Akers accumulated 61 total yards compared to 42 for Mattison. Yet, their Week 8 lines (at least as of yet) do not seem to reflect this shift. Mattison’s implied scrimmage yards sit at 62.5 while Akers’ are at 39.5. Perhaps the sportsbooks think last week’s usage was an aberration. Akers only totaled 16 opportunities in his previous three outings, after all. But I think part of that was Minnesota easing him into the offense after acquiring him via trade last month. I also think part of it is that the team realizes that perhaps less is more when it comes to Mattison’s effectiveness. Either way, I am willing to bet on Akers this week in a favorable matchup against the Green Bay Packers.
Green Bay has allowed the third-most scrimmage yards per game to opposing running backs. And they have been equally generous via both the ground and the air. The Packers give up the sixth-most rushing yards per game and seventh-most receiving yards per game to enemy backs. Akers has begun to distance himself from Mattison as a receiving threat. The former Ram has a 79.8 receiving grade per Pro Football Focus (3rd among 59 qualifiers), while Mattison’s 36.4 grade is dead last. You can also bet on Akers to record more than 7.5 receiving yards, which makes a lot of sense. However, I think Akers may earn double-digit touches again this week. If that is the case, he should easily exceed his total scrimmage yard number, making this my preferred play.
Puka Nacua UNDER 6.5 Receptions (-130, FanDuel)
I am usually not one to take unders when it comes to NFL player props. And going against a player the caliber of Puka Nacua can be a dicey proposition. But that is exactly what I am doing this week. The Dallas Cowboys have only allowed 48 receptions to opposing wideouts this year. That is second behind only Cleveland, and no other NFL team has allowed fewer than 63. The team has not taken a huge step backward in that regard even after losing Trevon Diggs for the season. In their last three games, the Cowboys have allowed only 27 receptions to opposing wide receivers. I cannot imagine a scenario in which Nacua and Cooper Kupp put up huge numbers in this game. And I am more willing to bet on Kupp than Nacua in an either/or scenario.
If there is a weak link in Dallas’ secondary, it would most likely be slot cornerback Jourdan Lewis. “Weak link” in this case still means only a 67 percent catch rate, which is very good for a slot corner. But that number is much higher than the 48 and 47 percent marks allowed by outside corners DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore. Kupp and Tutu Atwell both run more routes out of the slot than Nacua does. That means Nacua should have the unenviable task of facing Bland and Gilmore on most snaps. Bland has been nothing short of outstanding and Gilmore is a former Defensive Player of the Year. This feels like it could be a down week for the budding rookie. I do not expect Pacua is catch more than six passes in this game, so I am taking the under on his total receptions prop.
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