Well, I went 2-1 in my NFL player props last week. It was nice to end my mini-slump, but I am not here to go 2-1. I say it has been too long since I had a 3-0 week, and it is high time we correct that. So, this is me shooting my shot with three player props that I am playing in Week 8. Consider this my weekly public service announcement to remind you to always play responsibly and shop around if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. Now let’s crack open those books!
NFL Week 8 Player Props
Rachaad White OVER 3.5 Receptions (+140, Bet365)
I know, I know. I preach about wanting to go 3-0 and the first prop I drop is a +140. Way to play it safe, Mick. Hey, go big or go home, right? Besides, in reality, this column is more about value than winning. If a prop is -130 and I think it should be -105, I will probably play it. Similarly, I do not think that this particular prop should be +140. Even if you do not have access to Bet365, this prop is plus money on multiple other sportsbooks. I would play this up to even money.
Rachaad White has gone over this number in three of his six games played this year. White has registered five or more receptions in all three instances. He also went over 3.5 receptions in nine of 19 games last year including the playoffs. But I do not believe those numbers tell the full story. That is because Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have also played in all 25 of those games. In those 25 games, Godwin and Evans combined for 384 targets. And White still went over in 12 of 25 (48 percent). A +140 bet carries implied odds of 41.67 percent. Even without factoring in the targets vacated by Godwin and Evans, this is a value based on historical data. We can also factor in this week’s matchup with the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta has allowed 23 receptions to running backs in their last four games.
With Godwin and Evans out, White should become the clear favorite for receptions out of the backfield. He already has more targets than Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker combined this year. And Irving and Tucker have looked better in the run game than White has this season. All of this should add up to a more defined role for White as a pass catcher in this game. I am taking Rachaad White to catch at least four passes on Sunday. I may also be sprinkling on some alternate lines as well.
Josh Jacobs OVER 14.5 Receiving Yards (-140, BetMGM)
Most sportsbooks have the receiving yardage number for Josh Jacobs this week set between 14.5 and 16.5. The prices vary by book, of course. You may decide to play the over on 15.5 or 16.5 at less cost (juice). Or you may decide that I am a bumbling idiot and fade me. Either way, here is why I like Jacobs from a receiving standpoint this week.
Jacobs has not had more than 28 receiving yards in any game this season. However, he has had at least 16 in five of the seven games. And those five games are all five games in which quarterback Jordan Love has played. This week’s matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars should also play in Jacobs’ favor. Jacksonville has the worst pass defense in the NFL. And while that stands to benefit other Packers pass catchers as well, do not sleep on Jacobs in that regard. The Jaguars rank 28th in DVOA in pass coverage versus running backs. They have also allowed running backs to secure 27 of 30 targets for 221 yards over the past four weeks. Jacobs has more than twice as many targets, receptions, and receiving yards than Emanuel Wilson, so he should be the primary beneficiary of Jacksonville’s inability to limit running backs as pass-catching threats.
Devin Singletary UNDER 36.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
My final Week 8 NFL player prop could be considered a speculative play in some respects. Then again, I suppose you can say that about pretty much all props and projections to some degree. Thank you for attending my TED Talk.
I have only seen props for Devin Singletary’s rushing yardage props on FanDuel and Fanatics Sportsbooks. I think part of the reason for that is that the Giants may be shifting the bulk of their backfield work to rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. And therein lies the potential value in fading Singletary here. Singletary returned last week after a two-week absence but only played 12 snaps. Meanwhile, Tracy Jr. played 39. I do not necessarily think the split will be as pronounced this week, but Tracy Jr. may have overtaken Singletary as New York’s lead running back.
The matchup for either running back is less than favorable. The Pittsburgh Steelers rank third in the NFL in run defense based on both DVOA and EPA. They have allowed opposing running backs to average just 3.5 yards per carry and 71.1 yards per game. New York has a poor offensive line and just lost left tackle Andrew Thomas for the season. That figures to be a problem against a Pittsburgh defensive front that is one of the best in the NFL. If Singletary indeed sees less work than Tracy Jr. in this game, it is quite likely he will fail to hit this benchmark. He may have a hard time getting there even with 10 or 12 carries in this game.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 8 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!