In this series, I look at dynasty football values and what players are rising and falling. While dynasty managers are in it for the long haul, it doesn’t mean that their opinions aren’t swung from week to week by good or bad fantasy performances. I will attempt to get an early read on the pulse of the Dynasty Community to see where players’ values are moving.
Feel free to comment or reach out to me on Twitter/X at (@jtorange) with any comments, insightful nuggets or questions.
Week 9 Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers
Risers
Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The former Oregon running back was extremely productive in college. After transferring to Eugene from Minnesota following his freshman season, Irving was one of the top total yardage producers in the nation. Irving finished his career with 3,722 total yards from scrimmage and 25 touchdowns. He averaged an impressive 6.2 yards per carry in his career and only had one fumble in almost 600 career touches.
In college, Irving was known for running hard and breaking tackles. He showed good quickness and elusiveness. He was also one of the top-rated receiving running backs in the draft. He had 56 catches for 413 yards his junior year.
There was a lot of excitement surrounding Irving entering the 2024 NFL Draft. But then came the NFL combine. Irving ended up with one of the worst showings in recent years. His total RAS Score (Relative Athletic Score) was one of the worst we have ever seen. He scored an unofficial 2.28 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 1,348 out of 1,745 RB prospects from 1987 to 2024. Yeah, it was that bad. Irving is considered slightly undersized at 5-9, 192 pounds. He also ran a disappointing 4.55-second 40-yard dash and didn’t show well in other agility drills.
This caused the excitement in the dynasty football community to dwindle pretty quickly. Prior to the combine, Irving was looked at as a top running back prospect. He was typically going near the top to the middle of the second round in fantasy drafts. Once Irving fell to the fourth round and pick 125 overall in the NFL Draft, he started to fall in fantasy drafts. The landing spot with Tampa Bay didn’t help squash any fears as he looked destined for a backup role behind Rachaad White, who was coming off a top-five RB fantasy season. White eventually fell to the late third round and early fourth round of fantasy drafts.
Irving was going 171 in overall ADP this past May according to DLF.com. Since then, he has jumped up to 76 in ADP earlier this month.
The reason for the jump in value has been Irving’s play on the field. He has seen his snap share increase almost every week of the season from 31% in Week 1 to a high of 64% in Week 6.
While White continues to be the starter and gets a majority of the snaps for the Bucs, Irving has proven to be the more productive back. According to Fantasy Pros scoring Irving is currently RB28 with 71.9 points this season. White is currently RB30 with 65.2 points.
Irving has 76 carries for 395 yards rushing with 5.2 yards per carry average, and three touchdowns. He also has 20 catches for 164 yards. White has 67 carries for 256 yards, 3.8 yards per carry average, and zero touchdowns. White does have 28 catches for 236 yards and three touchdowns. Irving is now ranked and being drafted just behind White and near the likes of the Titans’ Tony Pollard.
While Irving still has some work to take the RB1 job away from White, he has shown the ability to be extremely productive. Week-to-week, Irving is getting more of a chance to show what he can do, and he has taken advantage of the opportunity. Irving has increased his workload and looks to be a mainstay in the Bucs’ explosive offense moving forward.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
The second-year running back from Illinois is starting to carve out a leading role with the Bengals. Brown was behind entrenched veteran Joe Mixon his rookie year and then saw Cincinnati sign Zach Moss this offseason in free agency after Mixon left for Houston.
Brown’s ADP was 158 at the end of last season, but his current ADP has risen to as high as 100 in the last month as he starts to look like the better running back option in Cincinnati.
Brown is currently RB26 in Fantasy Pros scoring with 74 points. He has 78 carries for 359 yards with a 4.6 yards per carry average and four touchdowns. He has 16 receptions for 61 yards and one touchdown.
On the other hand, Moss is RB33 with 58.9 points. He has 74 carries for 242 yards with a 3.3 yards per carry average, and two touchdowns. He has 23 catches for 187 yards and one touchdown.
Brown had a 25.6% snap share in the first three weeks of the season, but that has increased to 48.2% in the last five games with a season-high of 62%. Moss is still seeing around a 50% snap share the past four weeks, but his production has been abysmal. He has 26 carries for 55 yards. That’s just 2.1 yards per carry. He has added 11 catches for 91 yards but hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4.
Now is the time to jump on Brown before completely taking over the backfield in Cincy and move Moss quickly before his value completely plummets.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
The passing game in Indianapolis has been a mix of good and bad this season. The Colts Brass has made a controversial move this week. They announced on Wednesday that they were making the move to veteran quarterback Joe Flacco to run the offense. Second-year quarterback and former number four overall pick Anthony Richardson is being benched. I will talk more about that in just a minute, but let’s concentrate on Downs for now.
The second-year wide receiver had a productive rookie season, despite average quarterback play and missing time with a high ankle sprain. Downs was slowed to start this season when he suffered another injury during training camp. He missed the first two games of the season, but since his return, Downs has become the Colts’ most consistent receiver for an inconsistent passing game.
Down is currently WR34 in Fantasy Pros scoring with 54.3 points, but he has really produced in the last five games, totaling 29 catches for 329 yards and three touchdowns. The move to Flacco should signal an even bigger uptick in production for the foreseeable future.
With Richardson set to be the starting quarterback in Indianapolis this season, and his known inconsistency throwing the football, Downs’ ADP dropped to as low as 131 in August. He has since seen his ADP rise to 107 and is currently set to continue moving up. Now is the time to invest in Downs before the rest of your league mates realize he is the new WR1 in Indy.
Check out all of our Week 9 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Fallers
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
We haven’t seen how far the dip in dynasty value will go with Richardson following his benching this week, but now is the time to evaluate which side of the slide you are going to be on. If you are an AR truther and think this is a temporary benching and you still believe in the talent, then now might be the time to buy. If you don’t think AR will ever become a viable NFL and thus fantasy quarterback, then now might be the time to sell before it is too late.
I personally don’t agree with the benching of Richardson. Everyone knew he would be a project after starting only one season at Florida and struggling with his accuracy. He blew away every metric for a quarterback at the NFL combine, convincing the Colts to not pass on his extreme potential and draft him with the fourth pick. The Colts’ decision-makers said they would play him right away because actual game reps were the only way for him to improve at the rate they wanted. Now it seems that they have changed philosophies and made the move to the veteran.
I have watched every one of Richardson’s games this season and all 10 of his career starts. The tape is much more telling than the box scores. The good: Cannon of an arm, fantastic throwing the ball deep, elite athletic ability to escape the pass rush, and the huge advantage of adding the running element from the QB position. The bad: Accuracy issues, still figuring out how to take something off of short throws without short arming them, reading defenses to find what should be the open receiver, and injury issues.
Richardson throws a beautiful deep ball. He has not been helped by wide receiver drops, guys not getting two feet inbounds, and penalties getting huge plays called back. While his completion percentage is a dreadful 44.4 percent this season and his QB rating is 57.2, the tape shows a quarterback who is throwing the ball 20+ yards downfield at an incredible rate. If by design or by choice, the deep throws are greatly affecting his completion percentage. He is also getting little help from his wide receivers, who are getting very little separation, causing him to have more passes defended than any quarterback in the league.
How this affects Richardson’s psyche and development is anyone’s guess. But this is an ugly situation for the Colts and fantasy managers alike.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Kirk has his lowest value since August 2022 according to DLF.com. He is all the way down to an ADP of 98, and I expect that to continue to drop. Kirk was being drafted in the 60s before the start of the 2024 season. He got off to a slow start this season with two catches for 29 yards in the first two games. He had a couple of bright spots over the last six weeks but was extremely inconsistent from week to week with highs of eight catches, 88 yards, and a touchdown with lows of one catch and 24 yards. Kirk missed the final five games of the 2023 season and now has been diagnosed with a broken collarbone that should end his 2024 season.
The Jaguars’ struggles on offense and the worries surrounding the coaching staff and quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s lack of improvement have most of Jacksonville’s fantasy assets dropping in value. Kirk is still only 27 years old, but his best fantasy days might already be behind him. I traded him for 2025 first and second round rookie picks this past summer. Now I’m feeling like I got a steal. It seems like it would be difficult to get even a late second-round pick for Kirk at this point.
MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Green Bay Packers
Many people viewed Lloyd as a top three or four running back entering the 2024 NFL Draft. The 5-9, 220-pound back ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at the combine, and showed some flashes in college at South Carolina and USC when he was healthy.
The Packers made him the fourth running back off the board, selecting him with the 24th pick in the third round. Green Bay added Josh Jacobs to their backfield in the offseason, and many pundits thought Lloyd could push Jacobs for the starting RB role. Lloyd was going in the top 100 of DLF’s ADP this summer.
The biggest knock on Lloyd entering the draft was his injury concerns. He missed significant time multiple times in college. Those fears have become a reality. Lloyd pulled his hamstring in training camp and missed significant time. He didn’t see his first game action until Week 2. He had six carries for 15 yards and one reception for three yards against the Colts, but he injured his ankle during that game and was placed on injured reserve. Now he is back on IR with a hamstring injury.
With the injuries and all the missed time Lloyd’s ADP has dropped to 144 and he is ranked outside of the top 150 with the likes of backup RBs like Justice Hill and Roschon Johnson.
Jacobs is having a resurgent season in Green Bay. This has caused Lloyd’s value to drop even more. If you liked Lloyd coming into the draft and are ok with taking on the risk of an oft-injured player, now might be the time to try to buy.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!