Week 9 Flex Rankings: What Can Brown Do For You?

Antonio Brown will make his grand return to the NFL stage in Week 9 when he dons a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform for the first time in his career. Fantasy managers who invested in the mercurial receiver will want to show off their shiny new toy right away. I certainly can understand the appeal of starting Brown this week in what could be a shootout. However, I have him ranked quite conservatively in my Week 9 Flex rankings. Question marks surround Brown and his role heading into a pivotal Sunday night matchup with the New Orleans Saints.

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It is anyone’s guess as to what his role will be in his Bucs debut. Head coach Bruce Arians did not offer much insight when he said that Brown’s workload, “could be 10 plays, it could be 35 plays.”  Further complicating matters is the potential return of slot wideout Chris Godwin from a broken finger. The Bucs have plenty of weapons as it is, so Brown will not see anything resembling the target share he enjoyed during his heyday with the Pittsburgh Steelers regardless of Godwin’s status. From an entertainment standpoint, I want to see Brown line up against Chauncey Gardner-Johnson as much as humanly possible. I wonder how much we see Brown on Sunday, and I suspect he falls short of Flex consideration this week.

Stars Not Bright on Thursday Night

Thursday night games already have a nasty habit of being less than aesthetically pleasing as it is. This week’s matchup between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers is likely to follow suit. The skill level, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, appears much thinner than it did even a few short days ago. San Francisco lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, running back Tevin Coleman, and star tight end George Kittle in last week’s defeat in Seattle. Making matters worse, San Francisco placed wide receiver Kendrick Bourne on the reserve/COVID-19 list following a positive test on Wednesday. Deebo Samuel and Raheem Mostert are already out with injuries, leaving the 49ers painfully thin at the offensive skill positions as they prepare for the Packers.

JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon should split duties in the backfield for San Francisco. Green Bay has struggled to contain production on the ground dating back to last season. Mostert put up 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns in last year’s NFC Championship against Green Bay, so they are well aware of Kyle Shanahan’s rushing attack. I would expect both Hasty and McKinnon to see double-digit touches in this game, making both solid Flex options. Brandon Aiyuk figures to be the main target in the passing game. The absence of Bourne may allow Green Bay to shadow Aiyuk with Jaire Alexander. The third-year cornerback has earned Pro Football Focus’ top grade at the position through eight weeks. Aiyuk’s expected volume and his recent strong play supersede the difficult individual matchup in my estimation.

The Packers have issues of their own as well. Stud running back Aaron Jones is trying to return from his calf injury, but the team is pessimistic. Jamaal Williams has played well in Jones’ absence, but he and A.J. Dillon will sit this game out due to COVID-19 protocols. It leaves the Packers’ backfield in a state of flux. Dexter Williams and Tyler Ervin are likely to handle duties for Green Bay. The duo has combined for 37 offensive touches in 45 career games. Of course, this situation is less than ideal. I expect both running backs for the Packers to also approach 10 touches. But I would rather have both 49ers backs before either Williams or Ervin. I do not consider either Packers running back a must start based on my Week 9 Flex rankings, though I would give Ervin a slight bump in PPR formats.

Injury News and Notes

Fantasy managers who have survived thus far without Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas are likely to get their first-round picks back into their lineups this week. Both have resumed practicing this week, and all signs point to them being able to return. I generally tend to give marginal players a week to prove themselves healthy and productive, but you cannot bench either player this week. Sadly, McCaffrey’s return should signal the end of Mike Davis’ impressive fantasy run. Davis had the fourth-most fantasy points among running backs in PPR leagues over the last six weeks. Managers would be wise to hold onto Davis, as he would immediately return to being a must-start if McCaffrey were to suffer a setback or reinjure himself. Alvin Kamara is most likely to be hurt by the return of Thomas, but he is still an elite RB1.

Of course, the injury gods could not give us without taking away. Calvin Ridley and Kenny Golladay left their respective Week 8 games due to injury. Neither is likely to play in Week 9, though there is no official word on Ridley quite yet. The cliff notes version of each team’s pass-catching options reads the same: start Jones (Julio for Atlanta, Marvin for Detroit) at wide receiver as well as the tight ends (Hayden Hurst, T.J. Hockenson), who should each get a slight volume bump; slot receivers (Russell Gage, Danny Amendola) are ok to target in deep PPR leagues.

If you are looking for a deep league flyer who may benefit from one of these injuries, consider Marvin Hall on the Lions. He is rostered in just three percent of Fantrax leagues and has the speed to get behind Minnesota’s corners. He ran a 4.28 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. All three Vikings cornerbacks have allowed at least a 70 percent catch rate and nearly two yards per route covered. I currently have Hall outside of the starting range in 12-team leagues, but I may move him up a bit when I update my Week 9 Flex rankings on Sunday morning.

Week 9 Flex Rankings

If you found Mick’s Week 9 Flex Rankings helpful, make sure to check out the rest of our NFL Week 9 Slate of Analysis.

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