It is time once again to offer up my three favorite player props for the upcoming NFL slate! For six consecutive weeks, I have hit one or two of these props. I think it is time to break up that monotony. Just for clarity, that means I plan on going 3-0, not 0-3. There are already considerable differences in some of these numbers depending on which sportsbooks you have access to. That is all the more reason to shop for the best lines you can find. The only thing worse than losing a bet is doing so by half a yard or half a reception. As always, adjust any plays as you see fit and gamble responsibly. Without further ado, let’s get to the Week 9 NFL player props!
Week 9 NFL Player Props
Jonathan Taylor OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards (-117, BetRivers)
This is one of those lines that made me do a double-take when I saw it. I realize that Zack Moss is still very much a part of Indianapolis’ run game. But the training wheels have come off Taylor in recent weeks. Taylor has 30 total carries over his last two games, averaging 5.67 yards per rush in those contests. I expect another busy day for Taylor on Sunday, and this is the best possible matchup he can have. The Carolina Panthers rank dead last in the NFL in rush defense DVOA. They are the only team that has allowed over a thousand rushing yards to opposing backs this year, and that is even counting their Week 7 bye. Carolina is allowing 5.57 yards per carry to running backs this season.
I have seen this number as high as 67.5 at other sportsbooks, so I am happy to get the free five years over at BetRivers. But truth be told, I don’t mind playing it at the higher number if need be. I think playing it at any number below 70 is viable, and this has definite ladder potential once those lines are released. If you are worried about Moss eating into Taylor’s workload, you can always take Moss to go over his rushing yards. That prop currently sits anywhere from 42.5 to 46.5. In the Colts’ last two games, Moss has had at least 57 rushing yards, while Taylor has had at least 75. And both of those matchups were much less favorable than this week’s. As it stands, I am taking the Over on Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards as my favorite Week 9 NFL player prop.
Zay Flowers OVER 4.5 Receptions (-148, FanDuel)/ OVER 5.5 Receptions (+134, FanDuel)
Zay Flowers has five or more receptions in five of eight games so far this season. That is a decent enough hit rate. And the Seattle Seahawks have allowed the 10th-most receptions to opposing wide receivers despite already having their bye week. They are also a much better defense against the run (8th in Run Defense DVOA) compared to the pass (19th). But there is yet another reason that I am so high on this player prop. Seattle plays zone coverage at a rate of 87.5 percent. That is the highest clip ( in the NFL. That is important because Flowers is Baltimore’s main zone beater. Flowers has 36 receptions on 186 routes run against zone compared to just 8 receptions on 76 routes run against man.
Baltimore has faced three other teams that play zone at a top-10 rate this year. In those games, Flowers recorded nine, eight, and five receptions. He led the Ravens in targets and receptions in each of those outings. If Seattle plays zone at anywhere near their normal level, Flowers should have a field day. Please note that just because I am on Flowers’ receptions does not necessarily mean I love his yardage props. In the aforementioned three games, Flowers cracked 50 yards just once, and his aDOT (average depth of target) was a mere 2.96 yards downfield. That has resulted in a 6.59 yards per catch average. In his other five outings, his aDOT is 11.73 and he averages 14.36 yards per catch. It would not shock me if he ended up with a line similar to last week’s (5-19) or his Week 3 effort against Indianapolis (8-48).
Based on those numbers, I think taking his receptions rather than his receiving yards is a much safer play this week. FanDuel was kind enough to give us alternate reception lines earlier than normal this week. Flowers landed on exactly five receptions a week ago and has done so on one other occasion. That has me leaning towards taking the Over on 4.5 receptions as my standard play, even though the price is a bit steep. I will likely treat this as a sort of combo/ladder play, but decide for yourself how you want to proceed. Either way, Zay Flowers should be good for at least a handful of receptions on Sunday.
Alvin Kamara OVER 31.5 Receiving Yards (-115, Caesars)
I believe we are getting a reduced number on Alvin Kamara’s receiving yards because the New Orleans Saints should have a positive game script as heavy favorites against the Chicago Bears. And Kamara indeed has seven total receptions in two Saints’ victories compared to 32 (not a typo) in three losses. However, I think that even if New Orleans wins this game, Alvin Kamara has an excellent chance of exceeding his receiving yards prop. The Chicago Bears allow far and away the most receiving yards to opposing backs on the season. They also give up the highest yards per reception among all 32 NFL teams. Kamara will likely only need three or four receptions to surpass this total, and the sportsbooks have his current reception line at 4.5. This feels like a buying opportunity for Kamara’s receiving yardage prop.
As to the notion that the Saints will take the air out of the ball if playing with a lead, I submit the following. Chicago has lost three games by at least 17 points this season. In two of those three games, they allowed their opponent’s main running backs (Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler) to record at least 86 receiving yards. The Bears clearly have no answer for well-rounded running backs whose first names start with the letter “A”. Kamara only needs to be half as effective as either Jones or Ekeler to get us over the finish line. And there is always the possibility of the Bears staying in this game throughout. That would further increase the probability of Kamara being utilized as a receiver. I see multiple paths to Alvin Kamara hitting this prop on Sunday and am adding this to my Week 9 portfolio.
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