With another week down, let’s keep things going. We have another week of survivor picks on tap for you, so follow along. Let’s continue to sweat along with our survivor picks as we progress through the season. This ended up being a relatively quiet week as it was just the Chiefs who were embarrassed. That meant our picks went 3-1. To further highlight how calm things were, all three of our fades ended up being victorious. Things are now tougher with the return of bye weeks.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 9 of the NFL season. Prior to the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 9 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
First, the Minnesota Vikings lost Justin Jefferson and now they are without Kirk Cousins. The Vikings were able to at least get by without Jefferson, but things will be a lot more difficult without their quarterback. The intention is not to suggest that Jefferson is one of the most explosive offensive talents in the league, but someone needs to get the receivers the ball.
While the Vikings did trade for Joshua Dobbs, who wasn’t exactly jumping off the page with Arizona, he is still getting up to speed. That means fifth-round pick Jaren Hall will be under center for Minnesota, and things are not going to be easy. In relief last week, Hall competed three of four passes for 24 yards and now he deals with a solid Atlanta defense. The Falcons are allowing the eighth fewest passing yards at just 194.6 yards per game.
We don’t want to bury the lead here, but the Falcons will also have a different quarterback this week. From Atlanta’s perspective, it is by choice as they switched gears to veteran Taylor Heinicke. Last week in relief, Heinicke completed 12 of 21 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown. While Atlanta is potentially an unlikely choice as one of our survivor picks, they do have an edge at home.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks
Whenever a team travels from the West Coast for a 1 PM start on the East Coast, they are often at a disadvantage. It is tough to target one first-place team over another, but the Ravens do have a clear advantage.
Baltimore’s defense ranks third in the league with just 177 passing yards allowed which will make things difficult on Geno Smith. When teams are able to move the ball against the Ravens, they don’t get very far as opponents average just 15.1 points per game. On the other side of the field, opposing teams have been able to move the ball against Seattle.
Lamar Jackson has been playing at a high level as of late, and that should continue this week at home.
Cleveland Browns vs. Arizona Cardinals
While Kyler Murray has been practicing for the second week now, it doesn’t appear that he will be back for Arizona. Murray has only been working with practice squad players while Clayton Tune and Jeff Driskel have been working with the starters. At this point, the lean appears to be that Tune will be starting. That is certainly notable since the Cardinals traded Joshua Dobbs this past week. With a 1-7 record, the Cardinals are obviously not playing for this year, but things will be worse with Tune instead of Dobbs.
The Browns will also be looking at a backup quarterback as PJ Walker gets another start. Walker has played to mixed results to this point but he keeps Cleveland in the game and has picked up a victory. With Amari Cooper and David Njoku as receiving threats and Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt in the backfield, the Browns do have some weapons.
However, this game will ultimately be won by Cleveland’s defense. In fact, that is all they really need while dealing with Tune across the field. He will have trouble moving the ball against a defense that allows the fewest yards (279) per game with the best third-down conversion (28.3%) rate.
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears
We certainly have a theme this week. This is another situation in which we are targeting a home team against a rookie quarterback for whom the intention never was to start. While Tyson Bagent did pick up a win in his first start, although that is likely more about the Raiders, it was not nearly as good against the Chargers last week. It is interesting though because Bagent did finish with more passing yards (232 compared to 162), but the Bears really are not that good overall.
They are facing a Saints team that is coming off an eight-point victory against the Colts as Derek Carr appears to be finding somewhat of a groove. A large part of that has been targeting Alvin Kamara out of the backfield, but this is another situation in which the Saints are the better team. However, the majority of this is simply not having faith in Bagent or the Bears in general. Defensively, Bagent won’t see much help as the Bears rank 28th in the league with 27.3 points allowed per game.
Games to Fade
With no other games having a spread greater than 3.5 points, there is nothing notable to fade here.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Washington, Buffalo, San Francisco, Kansas City, Detroit, Miami, Seattle, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans
Line 2
Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City, Miami, Cleveland
Line 3
Detroit, Baltimore
Line 4
Atlanta
Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty