That’s more like it. By no means are we rooting for losses, upsets or to be wrong, but they are an unfortunate fact of life in these parts. Things have been too calm across the NFL in the last two weeks, so we were eased back into things in Week 8. The good news though, except for those who backed Baltimore, is that there was only one upset. Now it’s time to stick with our progress and continue on our path to end-of-year supremacy. Let’s not waste any time as we jump into our targets for Week 9 NFL Survivor Picks.
How Did We Do in Week 8?
If we are going to self evaluate, we should start with the bad. This is something I teased, and should have seen coming, as Jameis Winston led the Cleveland Browns to an upset victory at home over the Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson struggled, Derrick Henry failed to find the end zone, and it was too little too late for the Ravens offense. Home divisional games are always difficult, and Winston played with urgency after returning to the starting lineup.
The good news is that everything else went as expected. Some games were closer than others, but all went our way.
All the Detroit Lions needed was the first half to sink the Tennessee Titans into an unwinnable situation. The Titans were unable to do much on either side of the ball, especially defensively, and it was an easy home victory for the Lions.
In Las Vegas, the Chiefs had some issues with the Raiders, but things went exactly as expected. The Raiders continued to be unable to do much of anything offensively while Kansas City did just enough to win. They remain as the last unbeaten team in the NFL despite being at less than full strength.
A few weeks ago, picking the Broncos would have never seemed plausible, but nothing is ever absolute. The Panthers were forced to go back to Bryce Young under center and the results were as expected. We saw a career best performance from Bo Nix and burning the Broncos as one of our survivor picks is a strong strategy.
From the fade perspective, targeting the Jets these days is a strong strategy. It looked like New York was going to pull off the road victory, but a late New England touchdown erased any chances of that.
Week 9 NFL Survivor Picks
There is still a lot of football left to be played. Let’s keep the success going and the good times rolling. There are two teams on bye this week, the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers, but that does leave us with multiple options to chose from.
Each week, we’ll continue to pick four games to target along with one that we are fading. They will be ranked in order of our preference along with the lines that we hope to see building off each other each week. Let’s jump right into those survivor picks. Things are also becoming more difficult as some of our options have already been utilized. That means our first choice might not be necessarily available.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos – Ravens -9.5
Once again, the Ravens are considered Super Bowl contenders. As they added Derrick Henry to supplement Lamar Jackson on offense, it shouldn’t come as a surprise. The problem though, is that they have had two bad losses so far this year. Earlier in the season, the Ravens were upset at home by the Raiders, and last week they failed to emerge from Cleveland victorious.
As they return home this week, it’s as close to a must-win as can be for the Ravens. While both teams are 5-3, Baltimore is clearly the better team. For as good as Bo Nix did last week, that won’t be repeatable this week against a tough Ravens defense on the road. It won’t exactly be a hospitable place to play. Statistically, it’s interesting as the Ravens are allowing the most passing yards in the league this year. A lot of that does have to do with game script so we can’t expect Nix to light things up down the field. Baltimore also has the best defense against the run as controlling the line of scrimmage will go a long way. We can’t overate Denver from a home victory over Carolina.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders – Bengals -7.5
This might have more to do with the Raiders struggling this season than our true faith in the Bengals. Cincinnati is coming off a blow out loss at the hands of the Eagles, but they can atone for it this week.
Traveling east for an early start puts the Raiders at more of a disadvantage than they already are at. Gardner Minshew has more interceptions than touchdowns and Las Vegas hasn’t been able to move the ball all season. The Raiders rank 26th with just 18 points scored per game. That isn’t a recipe for success considering they allow 26.3 points per game on the season.
The Bengals have the offensive talent and firepower to light up the scoreboard this week. At this point, the Raiders haven’t shown the ability that they can pose a real threat. For the Bengals to save any realistic postseason chances, this is close to a must-win for Joe Burrow and crew.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Chiefs -9
Monday Night Football in Arrowhead Stadium. It almost feels as if a Chiefs victory is simply inevitable. We know how difficult of a place it is to play and is this really going to be the venue for Kansas City’s first loss?
The Chiefs now have DeAndre Hopkins in the fold and Patrick Mahomes is still under center. More importantly, it’s the defense for Kansas City that really has our attention. The Chiefs are allowing the second-fewest yards per game this season along with the fifth-fewest points at 17.6 per game. Conversely, Mahomes should find little resistance against a Tampa Bay defense allowing the second most yards and fifth most points.
On offense, the Buccaneers have found success, but without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, things will likely be more difficult for Baker Mayfield.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Eagles -7.5
Things have gotten better for the Jaguars as of late, but they are still reeling. We finally saw a resounding victory by Eagles last week as they beat the Bengals by 20 on the road.
Offensively, things are looking better for Jacksonville but they are beat up at the skill positions. Tank Bigsby has done a solid job stepping in for Travis Etienne, but now they will have to replace Christian Kirk. Rookie stud Brian Thomas is also dealing with a chest injury so this is something to keep an eye on.
Of greater concern is the Jaguars’ defense. They rank 30th in the league with 395 yards allowed per game and are tied for 29th as they give up 28 points per game. That is not a recipe for success against most teams, let alone Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Philadelphia is healthy on offense and ready to feast in a favorable matchup. It also helps that they are backed up by the league’s seventh-best defense in both points and yards allowed.
Fade
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers – Saints -7
Something looks funky here, and it might be my pick here. Regardless of your thoughts, it doesn’t feel right that the Saints are only favored by seven points when some might think it should be double that.
Starting Andy Dalton provided a spark to the Panthers, but that didn’t last for long. An injured thumb sent Dalton back to the bench last week and Bryce Young failed to make his presence felt. Despite Dalton being healthy enough to return to practice, the current word is that it will be Young under center again. Well, at least to start the game.
When you couple that with the fact that Derek Carr is slated to return, this fade seems even more outlandish. But is Carr fully healthy? Will Dalton come off the bench and lead Carolina to victory? Weird things have been happening this year and the Saints aren’t good enough for me to trust or feel confident in.
Check out all of our Week 9 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Line 1
Houston/Kansas City/Philadelphia/Buffalo/Detroit/Cincinnati
Line 2
Washington/Atlanta/Los Angeles Rams/Kansas City/Philadelphia
Line 3
Houston/Washington/Baltimore/Kansas City
Line 4
Tampa Bay/Cincinnati/Denver/Baltimore
Make sure to check out all of our Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!