Last week’s edition of Sneaky Starts was another successful one. I hit on six of eight players, excluding Jauan Jennings who did not play. Included in the hits were the highest-scoring tight end, second-highest-scoring wide receiver, and third-highest-scoring fantasy defense/special teams unit. I still regret selecting Alexander Mattison, but they can’t all be winners. Besides, you would think that a running back with 14 carries and five receptions would be able to at least crack 10 fantasy points in PPR. But such is life. Let’s keep the generally positive momentum going with my Week 9 Sneaky Starts.
As always, these are players currently started in less than 50 percent of Fantrax leagues. I use Fantrax leagues as the barometer because not only am I a company man, but our leagues are objectively more difficult than others out there. If I were to use a 50 percent threshold using some other sites, this column would be infinitely easier for me to write.
Week 9 Sneaky Starts for Fantasy Football
Quarterback
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Current Start Percentage: 40 Percent (18th among Quarterbacks)
My Current Week 9 Rank: QB12
After finishing outside the top-12 in fantasy points among quarterbacks in each of his first four NFL starts, rookie quarterback Bo Nix has dramatically increased his fantasy output over his last four. Nix has finished as the QB9 or higher in three of those four games. That culminated in last week’s overall QB2 performance versus the Carolina Panthers. While Nix will face more difficult competition than Carolina going forward, he has proven to be a viable fantasy commodity. He has contributed via both the run and the pass. Nix has seven touchdown passes across his last four outings. He also has rushed for either 60 yards or a touchdown in six of eight games this season. That type of rushing output is usually reserved for only the elite dual-threat quarterbacks in the league.
This week Nix faces the Baltimore Ravens. While Baltimore will present a challenge, this is not the Ravens’ defense of years past, particularly against the pass. The Ravens rank 25th in DVOA versus the pass, while ranking fifth against the run. Nix has attempted at least 33 passes in five of eight games this year. Head coach Sean Payton will not hesitate to let Nix throw when the situation and matchup dictate doing so. The Broncos are also heavy underdogs in this game. If they fall behind, Nix should be asked to do even more to keep up with the Ravens. This feels like a spot where Nix can easily end the week as a top-12 scorer among quarterbacks. If you have Brock Purdy on a bye this week, you could do a lot worse than to start Bo Nix this week.
Other Quarterbacks to Consider
- Geno Smith
- Current Start Percentage: 47 Percent (16th among quarterbacks)
- My Current Week 9 Rank: QB14
Running Backs
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Start Percentage: 41 Percent (33rd among Running Backs)
My Current Week 9 Rank: RB30
It was strange to me a week ago when I felt Bucky Irving was being undervalued, and this week is no different. It is not as if Irving fell short of expectations last week. He carried the ball nine times for 44 yards and secured all seven of his targets as a receiver. Sure, the Kansas City Chiefs are nearly impossible to run against. And yes, picking a running back against them failed for me last week. But I think Bucky Irving is a legitimate NFL running back. Among 35 running backs with at least 60 carries this season, Irving ranks seventh in yards per carry and fourth in yards per carry after contact. He is also a capable receiver, which the Buccaneers need now that Chris Godwin and Michael Evans are out. I expect Irving to be at least a Flex-level player this week.
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
Current Start Percentage: 27 Percent (37th among Running Backs)
My Current Week 9 Rank: RB31
Rico Dowdle was a surprise inactive last week due to an illness. Perhaps that has left a bad taste in many fantasy managers’ mouths. I get it – I was stuck with Dowdle in a league as well. But Dowdle is not on the injury report for this week. That suggests he should be back to his regular role this week. And that role is lead back for the Dallas Cowboys. The washed duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook combined for 16 carries and 46 yards in Dowdle’s absence. Dowdle should soak up that work this week against the Atlanta Falcons. This game features the highest implied total of the week, and Atlanta has a below-average run defense. Dowdle may not be the sexiest play this week, but he can easily post RB2 numbers in this matchup.
Other Running Backs to Consider
- Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants
- Current Start Percentage: 27 Percent (39th among Running Backs)
- My Current Week 9 Rank: RB32
- Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons
- Current Start Percentage: 31 Percent (37th among Running Backs)
- My Current Week 9 Rank: RB35
If Tyrone Tracy Jr. can clear concussion protocol, I will likely bump him up into the RB2 range. He looks to be the Giants back we want going forward. If he cannot play, Devin Singletary could be a viable Flex option, but I would not be overly excited about it.
Wide Receivers
Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders
Current Start Percentage: 49 Percent (41st among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 9 Rank: WR30
Jakobi Meyers returned last week after missing two games and immediately led Las Vegas in targets and receptions. I still think those benchmarks will be reserved for tight end Brock Bowers going forward. But Meyers at least figures to be second in the pass game pecking order for now. That should serve him well this week when the Raiders face the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati ranks 25th overall in defense DVOA, including 22nd against the pass. The Raiders are also seven-point road underdogs. If they fall behind as expected, we could see them rely more on the passing game. There are multiple avenues to Jakobi Meyers finishing the week as a top-36 fantasy wide receiver, making him by top Week 9 sneaky start at the position.
Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers
Current Start Percentage: 25 Percent (55th among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 8 Rank: WR39
No, Bryce Young does not suddenly look like an above-average NFL quarterback after being benched for veteran Andy Dalton last month. And yes, I would feel better about this pick if Dalton were starting on Sunday, which he is not. However, the Carolina Panthers just traded top wideout Diontae Johnson to the Baltimore Ravens. This means someone has to soak up that volume for as long as Adam Thielen is out. Why not first-round rookie Xavier Legette? Legette tied for the team lead with seven targets last week and has three touchdowns in his last five games. He has finished inside the top 36 in all three games in which he has scored. A Week 9 meeting with the New Orleans Saints does not appear to be overly daunting. Thielen (if he plays) and fellow rookie Jalen Coker could make for interesting options as well this week.
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
Current Start Percentage: 41 Percent (43rd among Wide Receivers)
My Current Week 9 Rank: WR34
I will not blame anyone who prefers Cedric Tillman to Jerry Jeudy, especially after Tillman scored two touchdowns last week. One of those was a game-winning touchdown in the final minute. Tillman has earned the trust of the coaching staff as well as new quarterback Jameis Winston. But I am still going to lean toward Jerry Jeudy as the Browns receiver more likely to post bigger numbers in Week 9. Jeudy is the more polished route runner, which should come in handy against the Los Angeles Chargers. Los Angeles runs zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. The veteran has finished as a top-40 fantasy wide receiver in half of Cleveland’s eight games despite not scoring a touchdown. He should get enough volume this week to be a viable Flex play in most formats.
Other Wide Receivers to Consider
- Gabe Davis, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Current Start Percentage: 21 Percent (61st among Wide Receivers)
- My Current Week 9 Rank: WR40
- Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns
- Current Start Percentage: 32 Percent (47th among Wide Receivers
- My Current Week 9 Rank: WR42
- Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
- Current Start Percentage: 14 Percent (74th among Wide Receivers)
- My Current Week 9 Rank: WR45
Tight End
Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders
Current Start Percentage: 42 Percent (15th among Tight Ends)
My Current Week 9 Rank: TE12
Zach Ertz is about as unsexy as it gets from a fantasy standpoint. The veteran has not finished inside the top seven tight ends in any week this season. But he enters Week 9 as the overall TE10 in total scoring. That is because Ertz has finished inside the top 17 in seven of eight games. Last week he set season-highs in receptions (7), targets (11), and receiving yards (77). This week Washington will travel to face the New York Giants. The Giants have been relatively stingy to opposing tight ends this year. However, Ertz had his best weekly finish of the season in his other meeting with New York. And given the consistency of high-quality targets, he should at least be a serviceable fantasy tight end once again this week.
Other Tight Ends to Consider
- Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
- Current Start Percentage: 22 Percent (23rd among Tight Ends)
- My Current Week 9 Rank: TE14
Kicker
Blake Grupe, New Orleans Saints
Current Start Percentage: 19 Percent (19th among Kickers)
My Current Week 9 Rank: K8
The impending return of quarterback Derek Carr should have an immediate impact on the Saints’ offense. Included in that to some degree is the effectiveness of their kicking game. Blake Grupe attempted 16 extra points in Carr’s five starts this year. In the three games Spencer Rattler started, Grupe attempted just four extra points. The field goal volume was roughly the same. Grupe made eight field goals in Carr’s five starts versus five in Rattler’s three starts. But I still think more total points for the Saints should lead to more points for Grupe. The matchup against the Carolina Panthers has also been a fruitful one for kickers all season long. Grupe himself finished Week 1 as the overall K3 the last time these two teams met.
Other Kicker to Consider
- Cameron Dicker, Los Angeles Chargers
- Current Start Percentage: 44 Percent (12th among Kickers)
- My Current Week 9 Rank: K11
Defense/Special Teams
Cincinnati Bengals
Current Start Percentage: 49 Percent (11th among D/STs)
My Current Week 9 Rank: D/ST9
The Cincinnati Bengals defense/special teams scored -4 points last week. It was the worst single-game output by any D/ST unit all season. And yet, here I am proclaiming them to be considered a Week 9 sneaky start. The reason is simple. They have an elite matchup versus the Las Vegas Raiders this week. Quarterback Gardner Minshew has not proven he can take care of the football. He has already thrown eight interceptions this year. And unlike some of the surprising names atop this year’s interception leaderboard, Minshew has not been able to offset that by scoring a bunch of points. The Raiders have not scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 3. Cincinnati should be able to force turnovers and limit scoring in this matchup.
Other Defense/Special Teams to Consider
- New England Patriots
- Current Start Percentage: 18 Percent (22nd among D/STs)
- My Current Week 9 Rank: D/ST12
Make sure to check out all of our Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!