Before we get into the Week 9 Starts and Sits let’s have a bit of a talk about the current state of one of pro football’s most storied franchises.
Jon Gruden is an NFL coach who is currently the head coach of the Oakland Raiders. This past offseason, Gruden signed a 10-year contract at a pay rate of $10 million per annuum. For that $100M investment, the Oakland Raiders front office has so far received a single win through eight games. They’ve shipped out two star players in Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper. And they’ve most recently completely capitulated to a fellow cellar dwelling team fielding their backup’s backup quarterback and their second, third, and fourth string running backs.
Say what you will, but I can no longer be convinced that there is a such thing as a true meritocracy in the NFL. Not when this is the norm. There is something to be said for the benefits of experience, but those voices are growing fainter by the week.
Let’s pivot from this train wreck and dive into the Week 9 Starts and Sits.
Week 9 Starts and Sits
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Start These Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans
Hear me out. This is one of my more interesting Week 9 Starts and Sits recommendations. I understand Dak hasn’t been the sexiest of starts so far this season, but the stars are aligning for a second half turnaround. In fact, If you’ve been paying attention, the turnaround is already in full effect. Over the last four weeks Prescott has thrown for over 200 yards three times and has rushed for 30-plus in three of four contests. Through the last three games, Dak actually ranks as a QB1 and hit paydirt twice on the ground. And all this with Cole Beasley effectively Dallas’ WR1 during this time.
This week Prescott will have the added benefit of throwing to new addition Amari Cooper, who, according to PlayerProfiler ranks eighth league-wide in average yards of separation when targeted. He also ranks fifth in the NFL in average yards of cushion which should open up the types of quick strikes Dak excels at. If this wasn’t enough to convince you, also consider that Dallas’ opponent, the Tennessee Titans are a bottom third unit against the pass so far this season according to football outsiders. Take a chance on Dak this week. The numbers say you won’t regret it.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
The Fitzmagic man is back again just in time to bless our fantasy teams with touchdowns and INTs in equal measure and I for one couldn’t be more excited for it.
Here’s a cool stat: Since week one, the Tampa Bay QB position has ranked second league-wide in terms of fantasy points scored behind Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. It isn’t that hard to see why. Mike Evans is one of the league’s top receivers, DeSean Jackson is a premier deep threat, Chris Godwin is an emerging talent, and TEs OJ Howard and Cameron Brate are amongst the best at their position. Every option for Fitzpatrick or Winston is above league average and the two QBs have been making the most of it as far as it comes to fantasy. Couple this with the fact that the Buccaneers field one of the least effective rushing attacks in the NFL and it is clear to see Fitzpatrick is one to target.
This week they’ll face a defense that ranks 20th against the pass according to football outsiders and are desperate for a win. That said, with the 2018 Buccaneers squad there is always the danger of having one of these QBs pulled for the other midgame as Dirk Koetter is battling to keep his job and clearly doesn’t care about your fantasy team.
Sit These Quarterbacks
Phillip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks
Let me be clear. This suggestion is almost entirely dependent on the status of RB Melvin Gordon this week. The Seahawks are a top tier unit against both the run and pass, so the going will be difficult for the Chargers offense regardless of who plays in this contest. That said, the presence of Melvin Gordon at least allows the Chargers to be balanced enough to keep the Seahawks defense from keying in solely on the pass.
With a 48 over-under in this game (not a high total for Week 9) we can expect Rivers to be forced to throw to keep pace with Seattle but he won’t see enough volume to be a QB1 this week. The Seahawks won’t help matters by using their rushing attack to salt away games in the manner they have been so far this year. Rivers will be a risky play this weekend.
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills
With a 38 over-under this contest is the lowest of this week’s games. In this instance, Vegas knows best. The Buffalo Bills offense is a mess right now and any team playing against them won’t have to work very hard to outscore Buffalo. This is bad news for fantasy owners relying on a huge week from Trubisky. Perhaps even more concerning is the fact that for all the offense’s woes, the Bills defense is actually a pretty decent unit. So far this year they rank fourth against the pass and could find themselves playing against backups late in this one. Trubisky is one of the most unexpected Sits of Week 9.
Start These Running Backs
Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills
Many of the same reasons I’ve outlined to bench Mitchell Trubisky above are the same ones I’d use in support of starting Jordan Howard. With little need to put up a large amount of points, the Bears will likely turn to their running game to kill the clock against the quarterback-less Bills offense. This game should feature Howard more than his running mate Tarik Cohen due to the likely positive game script. The Bills also rank significantly worse against the run (12th overall) though that may be due to teams using a higher volume of rushing attempts against them rather than anything else. Figuring out this backfield is definitely one of the more impactful decisions in my Week 9 Starts and Sits.
Lamar Miller, Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos
Miller has been much better than expected as of late, as the Texans have continued to make an effort to get the former Dolphin involved. Coming up against the Broncos second-ranked pass defense, I would expect Bill O’Brien’s Texans game plan to instead focus on stressing the Broncos 28th ranked rushing D unit. In a close game the Texans should continue to get Miller involved on the ground. If the Texans find themselves down multiple scores early Miller should have no problem getting himself involved in the passing game. So far this season Miller has ranked ninth in defense adjusted yards against replacement via Football Outsiders so there is no reason why that trend shouldn’t continue.
Sit These Running Backs
In the Bye-pocalypse that is Week 9 sitting a living, breathing, running back for any reason can be hard to rationalize at all. Still these two are ones you may want to avoid if at all possible.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs
My recommendation to sit Nick Chubb this week has very little to do with Chubb’s abilities or even peripheral numbers. In fact, the Kansas City run defense actually ranks as the worst in the league in terms of DVOA so far this season. Still, it might be prudent to stay away from Chubb. Why? Because of the presence of Duke Johnson. The Chiefs are expected to score early and often in this one and the Browns will have to take to the air to keep up with one of the league’s top offenses. As one of the best satellite backs in the league, expect Johnson to get a lot of run in this one and to only cede opportunities to Chubb in goal-line situations.
Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
The Bucs have faced one of the smallest numbers of rushes against them this season and there is no secret as to why. They’ve held opposing offenses to the sixth fewest rushing yards against this year and have a pass defense that is in the middle of the pack in terms of yards against so far in 2018. The Buccaneers for their part have been one of the league’s most exciting pass offenses as listed above and Peyton Barber cannot be described as a premier pass catcher. Look for better options this week.
Start These Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp is healthy once again! Rejoice! You know the drill when it comes to him. Every. Week. Starter.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling , Green Bay Packers@ New England Patriots
In a game featuring two of the league’s best quarterbacks, it is not too farfetched to reason that we’ll see a lot of yards through the air in this one. In Week 8, a healthy MVS out-snapped Randall Cobb and came within just one of Geronimo Allison. Allison is likely to miss this week’s game due to injury which should provide an even easier path to targets for the rookie. Take advantage of a high scoring contest, a weak pass defense, and anyone tethered to an NFL great like Aaron Rodgers every chance you get.
Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
While many expect second-year breakout Kenny Golladay to be the main beneficiary of the Golden Tate trade, I still see the oft-overlooked Marvin Jones as the true winner. Jones already leads the Lions in red zone targets and will now receive a large portion of Golden Tate’s 25-plus percent target share this week. Additionally, If Xavier Rhodes even suits up (he’s questionable currently) he’s likely to shadow the emerging Kenny G instead of Jones this week. Take advantage of a high octane Lions passing offense in what could be a high scoring affair versus the Minnesota Vikings league average (16th NFL) passing defense this week.
Sit These Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper DAL, Golden Tate PHI, Demaryius Thomas HOU
I’m going to wrap three players into one this week as the trade deadline sees many new faces in new places in Week 9. Be wary of starting Demaryius Thomas, Golden Tate, and Amari Cooper as it generally takes time for new receivers to gel with their teammates and new QBs midseason. While we can expect increased levels of volume for both DT and Cooper moving forward I would add that Golden Tate stands to lose some looks in the Philadelphia offense, as he is now effectively the third option on that team. Give it at least a week to see what you’ve got before trusting any of these guys immediately in Week 9.
Start This TE
Ben Watson, New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams
One of the sneakier Week 9 Starts and Sits recommendations is Old man Watson. In another high-scoring affair, the Saints likely won’t have the luxury of running too many times against a Rams offense sure to put up points. While Los Angeles does boast one of the league’s best passing defenses as a whole, the majority of that dominance stems from a constant pass rush. CB Marcus Peters has been burnt early and often and Jared Cook illuminated the problems that exist in the middle of Rams DST. Expect Rams DC Wade Phillips to try and limit the effectiveness of WR Michael Thomas in this one, leaving rookie Tre’Quan Smith and veteran Ben Watson to pick up the pieces for Sean Payton.
In a week with so many Byes I cannot recommend a non-obvious sit at the tight end position for Week 9. If he’s playing and on your roster you should consider staring him in Week 9 with six teams on Bye.
Start These Defenses
Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Sit These Defenses
Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Redskins
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks
Hope you enjoyed my week 9 Starts and Sits. Agree? Think I’m Nuts? Let me know on Twitter @FF_Wonderkid
Also check out our Week 9 Sleepers: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Ready to amp up your Fantasy Football game even more? Check out The Fantasy Black Book Show, where Joe Pisapia, Scott Bogman, and The Welsh bring the goods every week.
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