We are finally off and running. In the first edition of my “Weekend Pitching Streamers”, there are a lot of unknowns. Who draws the start? Who is good? Who isn’t? It’s the joy of a fresh new season.
It’s also a fresh new series here at Fantrax, as I will bring you pitching streamers every weekend for games played Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. With this being the first article, there won’t be very many advanced stats used since there haven’t been any accumulated. After more games are played, a more statistical approach will be taken.
Underneath each starting pitcher’s name is a confidence score ranging from 1 to 10. 1 being not confident at all, and 10 being a quality start waiting to happen. Typically, the goal is to leave off any pitchers that are below a 5. However, some days this won’t be possible. In those cases, the best possible option will be selected.
Top Pitching Streamers 4/8 – 4/10
Friday, 4/8
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs. SD — 5% rostered
Confidence: 6
Merrill Kelly draws the start at home against the Fernando Tatis-less San Diego Padres. Kelly looked like a bonafide ace in spring training, allowing no runs or walks over 7.0 innings while striking out 13. I think it would be wise to try and bank on Kelly continuing that momentum into the regular season. The Diamondbacks starter was reportedly touching 94 to 95-mph on his fastball, compared to averaging 91.8-mph the season prior.
Merrill Kelly threw three perfect innings today with eight strikeouts against the Giants. According to the article below, he touched 94 and 95 MPH with his fastball. Last season Kelly averaged 91.8 MPH with that pitch.https://t.co/juXs62WnYJ
— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) March 24, 2022
Arizona believes in Kelly’s skills as well, signing him to a 2 year, $18 million contract extension last week. I recommend not only streaming Kelly if in need of pitching, but also holding on to him if he performs well.
Saturday, 4/9
Miles Mikolas (STL) vs. PIT — 4% rostered
Confidence: 9
It was tough not to give this one a 10 on the confidence scale. While the Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t the same pushover roster they have been, they still belong near the bottom tier of the league. Miles Mikolas is coming off of a hot spring, pitching a solid 13.0 innings with a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Not only was Mikolas solid in the spring, but he has also been a decent ratios pitcher for his entire career. Across 520 career innings pitched, he has maintained a 3.85 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Both could be considered league average. I would put the chances of Mikolas returning a quality start well over 50%.
Kyle Gibson (PHI) vs. OAK — 40% rostered
Confidence: 6
While it is a confidence boost to pick a pitcher who is coming off a good spring training, it isn’t a requirement. Kyle Gibson had a rough spring after he sported a 5.27 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP in 13.2 innings. Despite those inadequate numbers, Gibson still struck out 14, and has a long track record of quality starts within his 9 years in the MLB. Equally important, Gibson goes against perhaps the worst lineup in baseball in the Oakland Athletics. Oakland unloaded arguable their three best hitters in Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and Mark Canha. Without the trifecta, their lineup has turned into an every day streaming matchup. Fire up Gibson with confidence on Saturday.
Sunday, 4/10
Steven Matz (STL) vs. PIT — 49% rostered
Confidence: 8
Oh boy. If you have ever owned Steven Matz, you know what a wild ride it can be. Matz can deliver three consecutive quality starts in a row, and then get torched for 10 earned runs in the subsequent start. With that said, Matz is on a new team, he’s coming off a solid 3.82 ERA in 150.2 innings, and draws the Pittsburgh Pirates in his first start. Pitching in a favorable ballpark against a bottom-tier lineup, Matz should be streamed without hesitation.
Corey Kluber (TB) vs. BAL — 33% rostered
Confidence: 7
Turn back the clock four years and you would be stunned to see this name on a streamer list. Three injury-plagued seasons later, and Corey Kluber’s stock has plummetted. In 2021, Kluber pitched more innings than the previous two combined (80.0 IP), while maintaining a 3.83 ERA. Although he was injured again, he showed there is still some gas left in the tank. Kluber will rev up his engine for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2022. If there’s a team out there that can unlock prime Corey Kluber, Tampa would be one of the few teams that could figure it out. There may not be a better opportunity to start off with a good start than against Baltimore, who has consistently been a bottom 10 team in wRC+. Throw out Kluber against the Orioles on Sunday and see what you get.
Hunter Greene (CIN) at ATL — 35% rostered
Confidence: 5
Call me crazy, but I’m buying into the MLB debut of Hunter Greene despite facing one of the better lineups in baseball. Greene is one of the best pitching prospects in the game, known for his 102-mph fastball and wipeout slider.
Greene Day!@Reds No. 1 prospect RHP Hunter Greene has officially made the Opening Day roster and will make his MLB debut April 10th in Atlanta! pic.twitter.com/3z3Ell1tzK
— MLB (@MLB) March 30, 2022
Greene did struggle in the spring, accumulating a 7.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP across 9.0 innings pitched. However, he did strike out 11 and only walked 3, good for a 7% walk rate. His fastball was consistently hitting triple digits as well. The Atlanta Braves were bottom 10 in the league in 2021 in K%, and are missing their two best hitters from that 2021 team. As long as Greene can keep the ball over the plate, I expect him to approach 5 innings pitched, and at worst a strikeout per inning.