Last week we took a quick break from baseball and detailed how some of the big NBA offseason moves affect the upcoming fantasy basketball season. Don’t worry, though. We’re back to baseball this week.
There have been so many breakout players this season that I had to break this up into two separate articles. Today we’ll go over the breakout players in the AL and how to value them moving forward. We’ll tackle the Senior Circuit next Saturday.
A lot of times it can be difficult to figure out if a player’s breakout is for real or if it’s merely just a good season. There are always some every year, and it feels like there’s been about a thousand in 2017. Below are 10 American League breakout players and how they should be valued moving forward.
10. Andrelton Simmons (SS – LAA)
No thanks. Wait, should I say more? I guess so. No advanced statistics support Simmons being anything more than a mediocre offensive talent. He doesn’t make hard contact, his BABIP is up 31 points, and he’s an average runner at best. What he’s done this season is nice but shouldn’t be a trend long-term.
If I wanted an elite defender at short, Simmons would be near or at the top of the list, but his 2017 fantasy season doesn’t pass the sniff test. Sorry, Dwayne Johnson. I do not smell what Simmons is cooking.
2017 Re-Draft: Sell High
Keeper/Dynasty: Sell High
9. Whit Merrifield (2B – KC)
I’ll admit, there were several names I was looking at to round out this list, but I included Merrifield simply because his first name is Whit. Whit Merrifield sounds like a name you’d see in box scores back in the dead ball era. He’s been having a very solid season so far, but not many people seem to have noticed.
If he continues his current pace, he’ll finish with around 18 home runs, 27 steals, and 70-75 runs and RBI. Not too shabby, Whit. He’s already 28, so I wouldn’t go hog-wild on him, but he seems like a solid guy to round out your fantasy squad next year. If only he were a pitcher. I’d love to be able to use both Whit and WHIP in the same sentence.
2017 Re-Draft: Hold
Keeper/Dynasty: Wait and See
8. Logan Morrison (1B – TB)
After several years of mediocrity, “LoMo” has broken out some this year. He’s on pace for around 40 home runs, but the average is still only .251. He’s always had decent, but not spectacular power. A big reason for the home run spike is the near 12% jump (34.7 to 46.3) in his fly ball rate. That current fly ball rate is simply unsustainable. He’s definitely a sell-high candidate in all formats.
2017 Re-Draft: Sell High
Keeper/Dynasty: Sell High
7. Justin Smoak (1B – TOR)
[the_ad id=”384″]Better late than never, I guess. Is it that free health care in Canada that seems to rejuvenate players’ careers when they go play for Toronto? Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion were duds until heading north of the border, and Josh Donaldson went from a decent player to an MVP.
While Smoak’s breakout might not have been foreseen, it shouldn’t be a total shock. It seems like forever ago, but he was once a very promising prospect in the Seattle Mariners farm system. The power is definitely for real. His hard contact rates have always been good, and he’s hitting fly balls at a solid clip. Will he be this good next year or the year after? Doubtful. But at least Smoak has turned into a useful fantasy first baseman in fantasy.
2017 Re-Draft: Hold
Keeper/Dynasty: Sell High
6. Jacob Faria (SP – TB)
It must be something in the water down there in Tampa. Year after year, the Rays develop good starting pitchers. From David Price and James Shields to Chris Archer and Alex Cobb, the list goes on and on. The latest quality arm to debut for Tampa is right-hander, Jacob Faria. Through his first 67.1 major league innings, Faria has compiled a 2.81 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLssIRyZ-g37ZOfjiTUp3qIYsBsK2wU2lX&time_continue=2&v=zvv7nNHR574
He had always been a solid minor league hurler, but 2017 has been his breakout season both in the minors and majors. Before his promotion, Faria’s strikeout rate at Triple-A was an outstanding 12.9. Radar guns don’t light up when he throws, but he sits comfortably in the low to mid-90s with a plus changeup and slider. There’s not fantasy ace potential here, but Faria should be a solid SP3/4 with SP2 potential.
2017 Re-Draft: Hold
Keeper/Dynasty: Hold/Buy
5. James Paxton (SP – SEA)
From a pitching standpoint, there aren’t many things better than a hard throwing left-hander with a nasty arsenal. The potential has always been apparent with Paxton, but it took him until his age 28 season this year to really put it all together. He’s allowed almost three fewer hits per nine this season, which is a huge reason behind his 2.78 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Add in his 10.4 K/9 and pitcher-friendly home ball park, and you have a pitcher poised to be a solid SP2/3 for the next several seasons. He just needs to stay healthy. Paxton is currently dealing with a strained pectoral muscle.
2017 Re-Draft: Hold
Keeper/Dynasty: Hold
4. Jonathan Schoop (2B – BAL)
The 2016 season was just a preview of what Schoop was capable of. The preview might have been rated PG-13, but the movie has been rated-R because Schoop has been a bad man this year. If his current pace continues, he will end the season batting .302 with 36 home runs, 116 RBI, and 100 runs scored. I shouldn’t have to tell you that all of those numbers would easily be career highs for the 26-year-old Curacao native.
ICYMI: Jonathan Schoop continued his hot hitting with a towering shot to left! #Birdland https://t.co/4mjsXvlnci pic.twitter.com/i77dBl7PXh
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 31, 2017
A knock on Schoop has always been his microscopic 3.7% career walk rate. Now that has gotten a little better this season (5.7%), but working the count appears to be something he’ll ever do with regularity. It’s worked for his teammate, Adam Jones, so far in his career (4.5% walk rate), so I don’t believe it’s going to be a detriment to Schoop’s batting average. He just likes to put the ball in play, that’s all. He might not be an annual .300 hitter moving forward, but a .280 hitting middle infielder with 30-plus home run pop is extremely valuable in all formats.
2017 Re-Draft: Hold
Keeper/Dynasty: Hold
3. Luis Severino (SP – NYY)
There wasn’t much buzz surrounding Severino in drafts this spring, and for good reason. After a promising rookie campaign in 2015, he experienced a colossal sophomore slump in 2016. Through 11 starts and 11 relief appearances, Severino posted an unsightly 5.83 and 1.45 WHIP. His walk, strikeout, and home runs allowed rates all stayed consistent with his rookie year, but he allowed 2.2 more hits per nine innings.
This season, we’ve seen Severino improve across the board. His walk rate has dropped from 3.2 to 2.3, and his strikeout rate has jumped from 8.4 to 10.5. I’m firmly on board with this breakout, too. He possesses an electric fastball and plus off-speed offerings and throws those with a fluid delivery. As long as he can continue to limit the long ball, Severino looks like a solid SP2 in fantasy for years to come.
2017 Re-Draft: Hold
Keeper/Dynasty: Hold/Buy
2. Jose Ramirez (3B – CLE)
The 2017 season hasn’t been a total break out for Ramirez, as he was a top-100 player last year, but his emergence as a top-20 player this season is the breakout. He’s been able to add more power and run production without sacrificing his batting average. In fact, his average is exactly the same right now (.312) as it was in 2016. Add in his 25 homer, 80 RBI, 105 runs scored pace and you have a man that should vastly outperform his draft day value this season.
The question is, can he keep it up moving forward? I don’t think there’s a great answer to that question, either. Based on his minor league track record, his power spike doesn’t seem sustainable. Ramirez hit only 13 home runs in 1,383 at-bats, and his 32.6 hard hit percentage isn’t anything to write home about. All in all, Ramirez is a very good player, but not a stud fantasy hitter like he appears to be this season.
2017 Re-Draft: Hold
Keeper/Dynasty: Sell High
1. Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)
When you’re a big man, most everything you do is big. Big power, big swings, and usually, big strikeouts. A 6-foot-8 player like Judge is going to have a much bigger strike zone than someone the size of Jose Altuve or Mookie Betts. It’s just how it is. After showcasing his monumental power for the first half of the season, it’s the strikeouts that have reared their ugly head since the All-Star break.
Before the break, Judge struck out in 29.8% of his at-bats. That’s not a great rate, but he was still hitting over .300 with countless mammoth blasts. That number has risen to 36.4% since the break and a whopping 40% so far in the month of August.
There’s no reason to get overly concerned with Judge, but it is important to understand his true value. He’s a 40-plus home run bat, but expecting him to hit over .300 is a stretch. In the long run, I’d expect him to put up very similar numbers to Giancarlo Stanton. Let’s just hope he stays healthy.
2017 Re-Draft: Sell High
Keeper/Dynasty: Hold
Thank you for reading another edition of the Fantrax weekly top-10. I hope you can use this article to your advantage and get a leg up on your fellow league members. Check back next Saturday as we cover the National League breakout players. Got a question about a player not covered here? Ask in the comments below or follow me on Twitter @EricCross04 and ask there.