Last week we went over which rookie call-ups could help you the most in fantasy baseball. This week, we move from the diamond to the hardcourt and recap how the wild NBA offseason affects certain player’s value in fantasy basketball.
Let’s be real for a second. The NBA offseason has been much more exciting than the lackluster playoffs were. And frankly, it’s not even close. There have been countless trades and signings that have big impacts on the upcoming fantasy basketball season. Some of them are positive, others negative.
10. Orlando Magic sign Jonathan Simmons
It was surprising to see San Antonio lose a player like Simmons. He had become a valuable part of the Spurs roster and stepped up nicely when called upon in the playoffs following injuries to Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker. Now with Orlando, Simmons figure to be a much bigger part of the overall plan.
His stellar defense alone will give him decent minutes, and his offensive game is nothing to scoff at either. He averaged 10.5 PPG in 20.4 minutes during the playoffs. That seems like a good baseline to go off of when predicting his 2017-18 stats. Somewhere in the area of 25 MPG, 12 PPG, 3 RPG, 3 APG, 1 3PG, and 1 SPG should be expected with the potential for more. He’s a solid late-round flier. For a little more on him, check out Jonathan Sauber’s article.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves sign Jeff Teague
This signing flew under the radar with all the big trades this summer, but for fantasy it’s intriguing. The Timberwolves have a dynamic young offense, and Teague is going to be the man given the responsibility of running the offense. Teague has been one of the steadiest mid-round point guard options over the last several seasons.
Last season, he averaged 15.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game. Both the rebounds and assists were career highs for Teague. With the talent around him in Minnesota, his assists should increase this season. A 15-4-10 point guard that can hit some 3’s and won’t kill you with turnovers is a type of player to target.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves trade Ricky Rubio to the Utah Jazz for a protected 1st round pick
Moving from a talented up and coming team to one whose arrow is pointing downward is never good for a pass-first point guard. Last year, Rubio had Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns to dish the rock to. Utah isn’t completely offensively deprived, but nobody on the current roster is what you would consider offensively gifted.
After averaging a career high 9.1 assists last year, expect that number to fall some. The drop in assists will drop his overall value as well. Since he’s offensively challenged, for the most part, Rubio will have a difficult time making up for the probable drop in assists. For the price it will take to draft him, I’m avoiding.
7. Brooklyn Nets trade Brook Lopez and Kyle Kuzma to the Los Angeles Lakers for D’Angelo Russell and Timofey Mozgov
[the_ad id=”384″]The Brooklyn Nets couldn’t be any worse, right? Wrong! There was one valuable player on their roster, and now he’s in Los Angeles. And don’t even start with me on Jeremy Lin. Short-term this trade hurts Brooklyn, but long-term and in the fantasy world, this helps the value of D-Angelo Russell. Brooklyn is going to have the ball in his hands a lot and count on him to be the scoring leader on a pretty bad team. His percentages won’t be that good, but Russell could approach 20 PPG. Throw in five or six rebounds and assists per game and you have a solid option in the later middle rounds.
On the flip side, this trade hurts the value of Brook Lopez. Not a lot, but some. Lopez was the only good thing going for the Nets the last few seasons. Because of that, he was depended on as the No. 1 scoring option. That’s no longer the case in Los Angeles. The Lakers are rebuilding and are probably going to be focusing on the developments of Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, and Julius Randle as opposed to feeding the ball to Lopez all the time. He’ll still be a valuable fantasy center, but he’s no longer an early-round option.
6. Utah Jazz acquire Paul Millsap via sign and trade with the Atlanta Hawks
This was one of my favorite moves this summer, and I’m not even a Hawks or Nuggets fan. The player I am a huge fan of is Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, and I believe this trade helps his already sky-high value. After an incredibly slow start, he turned into a Serbian man beast for the last five months of the season.
| Month | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG |
| October | 25.9 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 1.7 |
| November | 23.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 |
| December | 25.7 | 17.0 | 8.8 | 4.9 |
| January | 30.7 | 23.9 | 11.1 | 4.8 |
| February | 29.8 | 16.3 | 10.9 | 6.3 |
| March | 30.0 | 19.6 | 11.8 | 6.2 |
| April | 31.8 | 19.1 | 11.9 | 5.7 |
Most would think adding another All-Star big man would hurt Jokic’s stats. I’m not one of them. The presence of Millsap should help free up Jokic from defensive double-teams and help him get more open looks on the offensive end. More open looks mean a lot of good things for “The Joker.”
For the final five months of the season, Jokic was a first-round talent, and I strongly believe that to continue. Take his average stats from the last five months above and use that as a baseline for what type of stats Jokic is capable of putting up this season. Draft him in the back end of the first round and enjoy the ride. He’s a special talent.
5. Boston Celtics trade the #1 pick (Markelle Fultz) to the Philadelphia 76ers for the #3 pick (Jayson Tatum), and a future first round pick (Various factors determine the pick).
Okay, technically these players never changed teams since the trade was done pre-draft, but Fultz was going to be a Boston Celtic in most people’s minds. Well, all except Danny Ainge’s mind. This trade was a huge lift to Fultz’s potential fantasy value this season. Playing time was going to be somewhat limited due to Boston’s deep roster. Now Fultz has the keys to a young and very talented 76ers offense that should turn a lot of heads this season.
Fultz will have two emerging superstars in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons around him on the court. But wait, there’s more! The 76ers added sharp shooter J.J. Redick and Dario Saric has proven to be an emerging star in this league as well. For his rookie season, expect Fultz to average around 15 PPG and 7 APG. He’s a great option if you can get him in the middle rounds, but since he was the No. 1 pick, you likely will have to use an early-round selection if you want him on your roster.
4. Boston Celtics sign Gordon Hayward (And trade Avery Bradley to Detroit)
This signing had fantasy impact on multiple levels, and none of them are about Hayward himself. The Hayward signing caused the Celtics to trade Avery Bradley to the Detroit Pistons for Marcus Morris in order to free up some cap space.
This trade helps the value of two players. First, Avery Bradley is going to be relied on to score more in Detroit than he was in Boston. The Pistons simply don’t have any good scoring options. It would not be surprising to see Bradley lead them in scoring this season and approach 20 PPG. Add in his defensive stats and solid rebounding (for a guard), and Bradley makes for a solid mid-round selection this year.
It Boston, the man that benefits from this trade is Marcus Smart. Boston is going to need his defense even more with Bradley gone, so Smart should get a bump in minutes to the mid-30s this year. He might not be a full-time starter, but Smart will be relied upon to help a bit more on the offensive end of the court. After averaging 10.6 point, 3.9 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game last year, those numbers should rise some due to the increased playing time and responsibilities. Smart is a great guy to select in the later rounds of drafts.
3. Los Angeles Clippers trade Chris Paul to Houston Rockets for Seven Players, a protected 1st round pick, and cash considerations.
This is your classic, “Hey, I’ll trade you a bunch of crap for your superstar” type of trade that is incredibly annoying in fantasy sports. Don’t be that guy that offers garbage like that in your league. However, in the NBA, this trade works out. Unlike with Westbrook below, the addition of a second superstar should hurt James Harden’s value a little bit.
Due to lack of solid options, Harden was relied upon as Houston’s starting point guard. That role created a drastic jump in his assists totals. That jump in assists took Harden from a mid-first round talent to someone who might be picked in the top-three. Chris Paul is going to run the point mostly, and in turn, Harden’s assists should drop back down to the seven to eight per game he used to get. If you have a top-three pick, I’d pass on Harden. He’s a superstar, but the drop in assists make him more of a target in the middle of the first round as opposed to the top of it.
2. Chicago Bulls trade Jimmy Butler and the 16th pick (Justin Patton) to the Minnesota Timberwolves for the 7th pick (Lauri Markkanen), Zach LaVine, and Kris Dunn.
There are a lot of fantasy implications here, so I’ll try and keep it rather brief. The value of Butler should take only a minor hit, if any at all. He’ll still be the No. 1 scoring option in Minnesota but will now also have Towns and Wiggins by his side to help him. Due to that, his scoring might go down a tad.
This trade helps the fantasy values of every player heading to Chicago. Not because Chicago is a better team, but because there will be more playing time to go around. Both LaVine and Dunn are currently projected as starters, with Markkanen being the first big man off the bench behind Bobby Portis and Robin Lopez.
The one that intrigues me the most in fantasy this season is Dunn. He showed that he could do it all during his collegiate career and is poised to showcase his potential with a starting role. Somewhere in the vicinity of 12-15 points 4-6 rebounds and 5-8 assists should be expected for Dunn this season. He’s a great late-round flier that could return middle-round value.
1. Indiana Pacers trade Paul George to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis.
If you took Russell Westbrook off the Thunder last season, they’d basically be as bad as the Brooklyn Nets. Okay, maybe that was a little harsh, but there’s a reason why Russell Westbrook was the MVP last season. Now he’s got a little help. Okay, a lot of help.
First off, Oklahoma City acquiring George doesn’t hurt Westbrook’s value one bit. If anything, I think it helps his value. As great as Westbrook was last season, he had two glaring deficiencies that hurt his fantasy owners. Those were his subpar shooting percentage and his absurdly high amount of turnovers. With George in town, Westbrook won’t have to do absolutely everything to give his team a chance to win. That will help him keep the turnovers at a less cringe-worthy level.
George’s presence will also not allow defenses to focus solely on Westbrook this season. There were plenty of games when Westbrook would have to shoot something like 12/34 because the Thunder had no other options. Not this year. With Westbrook’s two glaring fantasy weaknesses potentially getting better, it offsets the few points, rebounds, and assists he’ll lose to George. He’s still a top-five fantasy option.
Thank you for reading another edition of the Fantrax weekly top-10. I hope you can use this article to your advantage and get a leg up on your fellow league members. Check back next Saturday for another list. Got a question about a player not covered here? Ask in the comments below or follow me on Twitter @EricCross04 and ask there.