Hey folks, welcome back. NHL free agency never disappoints fantasy hockey fans. On July 1 alone, 199 contracts were signed, worth a staggering $365,693,087.
We’ll only discuss a fraction of these signings here. Most of the contracts signed don’t hold any fantasy value, even for deeper pools. We’ll focus on the big contracts and notable players that signed.
Fantasy Hockey Free Agency
Steven Stamkos, C/RW, Nashville Predators – 4 Years, $8.5M AAV
It feels weird writing Predators with Stamkos’ name, yet here we are. Stamkos immediately makes the Predators stronger. At 34, he is coming off an 81-point season. There will be a narrative this summer around Stamkos losing Nikita Kucherov and how this will impact his point production. I get it, but I don’t expect it. Stamkos has Roman Josi feeding him pucks from the point, an upgrade from Victor Hedman.
Stamkos will get his. Expect another point-per-game season from the future Hall of Famer. I traded for Stamkos two weeks ago, expecting him to sign elsewhere. Bargain price too.
Jake Guentzel, LW, Tampa Bay Lightning – 7 Years, $9M AAV
Meet Stamkos’ replacement. He cost them significantly more, but he’s also five years younger. Tampa won’t miss a beat. Guentzel has spent his entire career next to one of the most creative players in the game, Sidney Crosby. Adjusting to Kucherov won’t be a significant learning curve.
He remains a plug-and-play, point-per-game player, with an upside to crack 90 points.
Sam Reinhart, C/LW, Florida Panthers – 8 Years, $8.625M AAV
Reinhart made the smart decision to remain in Florida. When you’ve had the amount of success he has over the last two seasons, why would you want to leave? Florida being a tax-free state also helps.
I’ve beat the regression drum on Reinhart’s goal-scoring all year. He’s almost guaranteed to see an 8% shooting percentage (SH%) drop. That would leave him shooting 16% in 2024-25. That’s a 19-goal drop. Unless he boosts his shot totals—233 was a career-high—he won’t repeat his 57-goal, 94-point season. I’m expecting him to produce 80-85 points next year.
Brandon Montour, D, Seattle Kraken – 7 Years, $7.143M AAV
2024-25 will be interesting. Seattle already has Vince Dunn, who scored 64 points two years ago and was on pace for 64 points last year. He should continue to run the first power-play unit.
I’m not convinced Montour was ever 100% healthy last season. If so, it would help explain his production plummeting from .913 points per game to .5 points per game.
Projecting Montour’s production next season will be difficult. He should hit 40 points with ease; 50 points is also a real possibility. With Dunn already established, predicting anything beyond 55 points would be a bold prediction.
Tyler Toffoli, RW, San Jose Sharks – 4 Years, $6M AAV
Toffoli got paid. In salary cap pools, it will be difficult for him to meet his six-million-dollar value. I don’t see this contract aging well.
He’s coming off a 55-point season last year, split between the Winnipeg Jets and the New Jersey Devils. The year before that, he produced a career-high 73 points with the Calgary Flames. Before that, Toffoli had only broken 50 points one other time in his career.
San Jose is a rebuilding team. They should be a lottery team once again this year. I don’t see a way for him to repeat the 55 points he produced last year.
Jonathan Marchesseault, LW/RW, Nashville Predators – 5 Years, $5.5M AAV
He’s only a year older than Toffoli. He’s coming off the first 40-goal season of his career. The year before that, he won the Conn Smythe as the MVP of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The extra year on his contract is what brings his AAV below that of Toffoli.
His 40-goal season is likely an outlier. His previous career high was 30 goals (2016-17, 2021-22). A return to 30-ish goals is most likely. Still, if you have a choice between Toffoli at $6M or Marchesseault at $5.5M, give me Marchesseault every time. Fantasy or real life.
Jeff Skinner, LW, Edmonton Oilers – 1 Year, $3M AAV
Targeting Skinner in your upcoming drafts should be a no-brainer. Skinner holds the dubious record of the most games played among active players without a playoff game. The Sabres buying out the remaining three years of his $9M AAV deal was a favor to both.
He wisely chose the Stanley Cup contender. It allows him to play alongside Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid. There are few better places to land on a one-year deal.
He’s only a year removed from a 35-goal, 82-point season. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his career. However, it is unlikely he’s ever entered a season as motivated as he will be in 2024-25.
Jake DeBrusk, LW/RW, Vancouver Canucks – 7 Years, $5.5M AAV
For a player whose career high is 50 points, this contract feels like it’s too much. DeBrusk is getting a premium for his previous playoff performances. I’m not sure he is the long-term answer to the hole on Elias Pettersson’s wing. Yet, at this AAV, they expect him to be.
DeBrusk was never able to break out with the Boston Bruins. It’s a wait-and-see if DeBrusk will finally realize his potential in Vancouver. Playing in the Canucks’ top-six will offer him the opportunity to do so.
Elias Lindholm, C, Boston Bruins – 7 Years, $7.75M AAV
A disappointing 2023-24 season didn’t seem to impact this contract. His 44 points were significantly below projections. The Bruins are banking on last year being an anomaly rather than a red flag moving forward.
Boston has an innate ability to get the most out of players. See Pavel Zacha as a current example. Centering Brad Marchand or David Pasternak, Lindholm should safely produce 60 points, with room for more.
Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Carolina Hurricanes – 3 Years, $3.2M AAV
Defensive deficiencies aside, Gostisbehere has averaged 51 points over the past three seasons. In salary cap pools, his $3.2M AAV provides incredible value.
With Brent Burns, now 39 years old, and Brady Skjei now with the Nashville Predators, Gostisbehere should quarterback the first power-play unit. He should also receive sheltered third pair minutes. He’s a power-play specialist if there ever was one.
Barring catastrophe, he seems primed to break 50 points once again. Dare I say, he’s a threat to push 60 if the cards fall his way.
I’ll be back in a few days with some thoughts and comments on the NHL draft.
Thanks for reading.
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