What to make of DJ LeMahieu in 2022

During December of 2011, over a decade ago now (and suddenly I feel old), the Cubs and Rockies made a trade (back in the good old days when teams made trades):

The Cubs sent DJ LeMahieu and Tyler Colvin to Colorado for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers.

Who the heck are three of those guys I hear you cry? Fair question.

Tyler Colvin was an outfielder drafted 13^th overall by Chicago in 2006. He played 221 games for the North Siders from 2009-2011, putting together a 113 WRC+ in 2010 but a 27 WRC+ in 80 games in 2011.

Colvin’s 2010 came to a jarring end when he got stabbed in the chest by a broken bat that his teammate shattered sending a ball down into the left-field corner while coming down the third base line late in September, with the bat just missing his heart and jugular vein. Colvin scored, survived, and then went on to play 220 games after the trade with a 113 WRC+ in 2012 before fading dramatically in 2013 and then playing only 57 games in San Francisco in his last season in 2014.

Ian Stewart also had a lackluster career, played one season in Chicago with a 66 WRC+ (despite Jed Hoyer saying he was going to be the Cubs starer at the hot corner), and then after missing all of 2013 finished his career in 2014 with the Halos.

Casey Weathers was a pitching prospect who never reached the majors for the Cubs (or any other team) and last played affiliated ball for Cleveland in 2016 never playing about AA ball. He was acquired after having TJ, but he sadly never bounced back.

What About DJ

The Cubs sent the 22-year-old LeMahieu to Colorado after 1 season in Chicago with a 44 WRC+ over 37 games. After that LeMahieu continued to improve in the thin air in Colorado. Oversimplifying his stats, this is what D.J. looked like in his time in Colorado.

So, with that Colorado career, failing to hit more than 15 HRs while playing half his games in Colorado, but with a great average, he got signed by the Yankees to a 2 year $24 million contract, and then in 2021 signed a 6 year $90 million contact to stay in the Bronx after the two years where he hit 327/375/518 with 26 homers in 2019 and then 364/421/590 with 10 homers in the short 2020.

After 2019 DJ was being drafted aggressively in redraft given his amazing average and his positional versatility. In 2021 he continued to be drafted highly for the average, though some questions about his power, especially given the juiced ball, were raised.

Then in 2021 LeMahieu had a pretty disappointing season with his lowest average since leaving the Cubs, putting up a .268/.349/.362 triple slash with 10 homers, 84 runs, and just 57 RBI in the Yankees offense.

What to Expect from DJ Lemahieu in 2022

So his profile – what changed?

Honestly, not a whole lot. His average took a dive, but other than a slight drop in XBA on fastballs, and a more precipitous drop barrel% on offspeed pitches, most of his profile and statcast data looks very similar.

Overall LeMahieu has a pretty red 2021 baseball savant page, as even with a dip in XBA, his XBA is elite. His barrel% however was awful, but he’s never been an elite barrel% guy, so even though his XBA dropped and his WOBA dropped slightly, I’m not as concerned as I thought I might be when I started this dive, because power has never been the thing you draft LeMahieu to help with on your roster.

His projected stats on Fangraphs are pretty solid. Most projections have him in the .280s for average, 80ish RBI, 60 Rs, a handful of steals, and 10-15 home runs.

However, D.J. LeMahieu has an NFBC ADP of 109.82 since January, and on NFBC and per most default eligibility is 1B, 2B, and 3B so he gives you everything other than SS for IF and CI and MI. This is a pick in round 10 in a 12-teamer and round 8 in a 15-teamer. So, depending on your team build, if you have power and speed already, LeMahieu offers some great average boost AND if you need any of his three positions, or multiple, it opens some draft lanes on average and positions (all of which can dry up pretty quickly).

Moral of the story – my gut said DJ was probably worth his ADP, but after some further examination, I think he is worth the pick (and probably about the right level of value), especially depending on your roster build.