Each year I closely study projections from multiple sources and cross-reference it against what “the market” is paying in draft capital (aka ADP). I also compare ADP against my tiered rankings (see my How Important is Position Scarcity? post for more information on using Ranking/Tiers in drafts). While going through this exercise, I’ll often spot players with middle to high ADP that give me pause or reason to avoid. Below I wanted to list three examples of players I avoided in 2023 that were considered “busts”, and who the 2024 versions of those players could be this season.
Who is this year’s…
#1 Nestor Cortes Jr.
2023 ADP: 95
2023 Ending Rank: +400
The breakout ace with questionable underlying stats
My Pick: Justin Steele (ADP: 76.5)
Justin Steele, despite the low velocity, average stuff, and low whiff rate, managed to make it through the regular season with a 3.06 ERA which was third lowest in the NL, giving him a 5th-place finish in NL Cy Young voting. Steele’s “little engine that could” season was powered by his ability to not walk batters (7th best BB% among qualifiers), keep the ball on the ground (3rd lowest FB%), and when the ball was in the air, keep it in the park (8th lowest HR/FB rate).
The similarities between Nestor and Steele on the surface level are that they are both lefties who seemingly broke out with very little hype. However, where I also draw comparisons between is not just the doubts surrounding their lack of velocity and swing and miss and stuff, but also the surge in workload during his breakout season. When “Nasty Nestor” had his breakout in 2022, he also had a large increase in workload. Looking at his Batters Faced year over year:
2020: 44
2021: 425
2022: 615
Then in 2023, he missed significant time due to a rotator cuff strain.
Justin Steele missed most of 2018-2019 due to Tommy John surgery. Since coming back from TJ his Batters Faced year over year has been:
2019: 170
2020: 0 (no minor league season)
2021: 358
2022: 512
2023: 716
-which brings us to 2024, where Steele is projected by several systems to set another career high in batters faced. It would be one thing to accept that his breakout performance was repeatable (his SIERA was 3.61, better than Zac Gallen and Gerrit Cole), but using a Top 80 pick on someone who has both repeatability AND durability questions has me fading Steele this spring.
Who is this year’s…
#2 C.J. Cron
2023 ADP: 126
2023 Ending Rank: +500
Dubious veteran who’s ADP is justified by what team he plays for
My Pick: Teoscar Hernandez (ADP: 129)
The case for C.J. Cron was relatively straightforward in 2023, “He will hit because of Coors.” The case is similar for Teoscar Hernandez who signed with the LA Dodgers on January 12. While the Dodger Magic Factory has turned Max Muncy and Chris Taylor into stars, and rejuvenated the careers of forgotten pitchers like Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson, there are still many red flags that should make you question if he will simply progress just because he is now in LA.
Most importantly, Hernandez’s K% and ISO have been going in the wrong direction for several years now:
You may see the +25 HR and +90 RBI in 2023 and assume he is still a top-of-the-line run producer (a counting total that was aided by his durability and 678 PA), but here is a stat to illustrate the dangers surrounding Hernandez’s peripherals, the only players with lower ISO who swung and miss +35% of the time were Paul DeJong and Brenton Doyle.
Who is this year’s…
#3 Jake McCarthy
2023 ADP: 157
2023 Ending Rank: +600
Guy who looks like a safe bet for batting average and steals but is red flags galore
My Pick: TJ Friedl (ADP: 150)
This is going to be hard to believe, but Jake McCarthy in 2022 had a higher wRC+ than Ronald Acuña Jr. (117 vs 115). The case for McCarthy’s ADP was that he was 25, is able to make decent contact with a very high expected batting when making contact (Jake McCarthy’s .325 xBACON was better than other outfielders like Ian Happ, Lars Nootbar, and Brandon Nimmo). These factors combined with the stolen base potential (he stole 26 bases in 99 games) had McCarthy being drafted ahead of other OF like Riley Greene, Cody Bellingner, and Nootbar.
The red flags for Jake McCarthy going into 2022 were pretty obvious. Here is a screenshot of his Statcast percentiles at the end of 2022 (with the old baseball savant player page format):
You can see he did (and still does) have elite sprint speed, but other than that almost all contact quality percentiles were far below league average. The “decent contact” reputation from his league average strikeout rate was also dubious because of his high Whiff%.
This brings us to TJ Friedl’s Statcast Percentiles from his “breakout” 2023 season:
Part of Friedl’s low exit velocity and expected slugging numbers are by design because he is notorious for being able to bunt for hits. However even after removing bunts from the sample, here are his ranks for several batting quality metrics (rank out of 168 hitters with +300 BBE last season):
xBA: 158th
Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate: both 154th
Barrel Rate: Also 154th
This is probably also why most projections predict a regression from Friedl’s .279/.352/.476 18 HR 27 SB campaign in 2023.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.