Making the first pick in a fantasy football draft is a blessing and a curse. It’s a blessing because you have the opportunity to draft any player you desire. However, it’s a curse because you don’t make another selection for quite some time. That being said, you need to make sure whoever you select with the first pick is worthy of being the best possible pillar of a championship roster.
Ahead of the 2024 fantasy football season, there are plenty of players worthy of selecting with the coveted first pick. Our staff writers are stating their case as to who you should select with that first pick, but providing plenty of reason why those with the second, third, and so-on picks thereafter should consider all of the players below, as well.
Who Should You Select with the First Pick in 2024 Drafts?
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Fantrax Writer: Ralph Martinez, @LobosFFDen
If you have the first pick in your redraft league, chances are you’re scrambling and thinking endlessly about who to take. Lucky for you, this year there is a clear-cut 1.01, and that man is Christian McCaffrey.
Fresh off of a dominant RB1 finish in 2023, McCaffrey comes into 2024 with a strong chance to repeat as the RB1 for the first time in 21 years (Priest Holmes, 2002 and 2003). After an RB2 finish in 2022, McCaffrey continued his dominance in 2023 and showed no signs of slowing down. Christian McCaffrey led the league in multiple running back categories to include:
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Rushing yards (1,459)
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Yards per carry (minimum 150 carries), (5.6)
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Total touchdowns (21)
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Fantasy Points (391.3) (PPR)
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Fantasy points per game (24.5)
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Red zone carries inside the 20 (65)
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Rushing Yards after contact (573)
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10+ yard rushes (44)
In seasons where McCaffrey is healthy, he is perhaps one of the best fantasy running backs to ever play the game, averaging an RB3 finish, with 366.9 fantasy points per season. McCaffrey is on a San Francisco offense that will continue to put him as the focal point of that offense, so I fully expect volume and efficiency to stay extremely high. While I anticipate a healthy Elijah Mitchell and a healthy elbow on Purdy to be a larger part of this offense, CMC is in line to repeat as the RB1, and lead your team to a championship. Don’t think twice, take McCaffrey with the first pick in your 2024 redraft leagues.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Fantrax Writer: Colin McTamany, @Colin_McT
As a Philadelphia Eagles fan, it’s hard to admit that a Dallas Cowboy is worthy of the first pick in fantasy football drafts. However, I’m willing to set personal bias aside and build my team around CeeDee Lamb in 2024.
Last season, Lamb’s 181 targets and 135 receptions led all players. When looking at those capable of reaching such numbers in 2024, Lamb is in a fantastic position to do so again. Not only does he retain the same coaching staff from the 2023 season, Lamb should retain Dak Prescott as his quarterback.
When investing in players capable of the target and reception numbers, Prescott is ahead of Tua Tagovailoa (Tyreek Hill), Jared Goff (Amon-Ra St. Brown), Sam Darnold (Justin Jefferson), and Davante Adams (Gardner Minshew) for me. There are, of course, a handful of other receivers capable of doing so, like Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, and Puka Nacua, but they all have stronger competition for targets than Lamb.
When it comes to making the first pick in a fantasy football draft, I want someone with an obviously high ceiling, high floor, as well as minimal risk. Lamb checks all of those boxes for me. Nobody is going to fault you for drafting the player with the fourth-most fantasy points, and fifth-most points per game, amongst all players last season who has a good chance to finish similar this year. That’s CeeDee Lamb.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Fantrax Writer: Colin McTamany, @Colin_McT
If I’m choosing a running back with the first pick this season, I may pivot from a consensus stud like Christian McCaffrey and select Bijan Robinson as the top back off of the board. While I’m typically pounding the table to take McCaffrey with the first pick, his 417 total touches, playing into early February last season, give me pause.
Bijan Robinson’s rookie season is one that left most fantasy managers disappointed with an RB19 finish on a points-per-game (13.8) basis. Whether you recall or not, Week 7 is the game where Bijan Robinson had an undisclosed migraine, fantasy managers started him, and he scored just 0.3 points. Prior to that, however, Bijan Robinson was the RB8 (15.6) from Weeks 1 through 6 without even having scored a rushing touchdown. Fantasy managers’ distrust with head coach Arthur Smith began with the “headache game.”
After a poor Falcons offensive output of just 18.9 points per game, which ranks 26th in the league in 2023, Atlanta should have more success and more red zone opportunities in 2024. New head coach Raheem Morris, and Bijan himself, have emphasized the potential of using him in a “Christian McCaffrey-type role” this upcoming season. Again, given McCaffrey’s career workload, and specifically his 417 touches in 2023, drafting “the next Christian McCaffrey” with the first pick in redraft leagues may be the play. There is obvious talent with Bijan Robinson, it’s just a matter of him securing a large enough role.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Fantrax Writer: Meng Song, @FFA_Meng
Is it that crazy to think that Breece Hall is deserving of the first overall pick in 2024? After all, he was already the No. 4 running back in PPR scoring and No. 8 running back in PPR points per game (PPG) last season. Oh, and did I mention that Hall did that in his first season back from a torn ACL and on a putrid Jets offense that ranked 29th in offensive PPG with Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle under center?
The Jets eased Hall back in from the ACL injury in the first couple of games in 2023, as he played just 17 and 16 snaps, respectively, in Weeks 1 and 2. From Week 3 onward, however, Hall didn’t have another game with fewer than 20 snaps resulting in a monster fantasy campaign. In fact, Hall was the No. 2 running back in PPR scoring behind only Christian McCaffrey from Weeks 3 through 17.
So, is it really that big of a leap from the No. 2 running back to the No. 1 running back in 2024, and dare I say, maybe even the top-scoring fantasy player across all skill positions outside of quarterback? Hall already led all running backs in evaded tackles, receptions, and receiving yards last year (again, in his first season back from an ACL tear!) and ranked sixth in yards after contact per rush attempt (YAC/Att). Assuming that Aaron Rodgers will return healthy this coming season and lead a more potent Jets offense, Hall is poised for a monumental fantasy breakout two years removed from his ACL injury.
One final note: even though Hall was the No. 2 running back in PPR scoring from Week 3 onward, it’s worth noting that McCaffrey still far outpaced him by 7.0 PPR PPG, so there’s absolutely nothing wrong with taking McCaffrey as the chalk selection with the first pick. That said, McCaffrey just turned 28 years old in June and is nearing that dreaded age cliff for running backs. While he’s stayed remarkably healthy despite a heavy workload over the last two seasons, McCaffrey did miss significant time in both 2021 and 2020, so it’s not crazy to bet on the 23-year-old dynamo over the 28-year-old veteran. Many fantasy GMs want to “see it” before taking a player at 1.01, but projecting future success is how savvy fantasy GMs find value from inefficient ADPs.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Fantrax Writer: Nick Skrip, @P2WFantasy
There is a health concern with both Ja’Marr Chase and his quarterback, Joe Burrow, heading into the 2024 season. Chase’s rookie season in 2021 is the only season both he and Burrow stayed healthy through it’s entirety. When both are healthy, the ceiling is massive for this player stack. With the first pick in a 2024 redraft league, I’m chasing the ceiling with Chase to maximize the upside for my potential championship roster.
Over the last three seasons, since drafting Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow’s passing volume per game has steadily increased from 32.5 pass attempts per game in 2021 to 35.9 per game in 2022 and 36.5 per game when available last season.
Though Chase and Burrow have both missed time over the years, in games they have both played in, Chase averages 9.58 targets, 87.05 yards, 0.74 receiving touchdowns, and, most importantly, 19.27 fantasy points per game. The points per game would rank as the WR5 on a points-per-game basis in 2023. Extrapolated over a 17-game season, that puts Ja’Marr Chase in the 160 target range which gives him a fighting chance to finish as the overall WR1.
Chase has that elite combination of high-floor/high-ceiling you can feel good about investing the first pick on your draft in. In nearly half of his career games, he has logged 10 or more targets. In nearly 40% of his career games, Chase has surpassed 20.0 fantasy points. The talent, volume, and quarterback play are the complete package to target Ja’Marr Chase as the first pick in 2024 redraft leagues.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Fantrax Writer: Ray Kuhn, @Ray_Kuhn_28
I fully acknowledge that I’m in the minority here. Drafting Justin Jefferson with the first pick in 2024 isn’t a popular flag to plant. However, it wouldn’t be the fantasy football off-season if we didn’t dig deep and consider all options.
Yes, Christian McCaffrey is a cheat code, but he is a running back and San Francisco is playing the long game. Breece Hall is intriguing, but we have never seen him play a full season, and he’s on the New York Jets. Then we have a group of wide receivers, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Ja’Marr Chase, that are right there with Jefferson. So, what about Jefferson caught my attention? Injuries held Jefferson to just 10 games last season, but he still broke the 1,000-yard mark with 1,074 receiving yards. In half of those games, he broke the 100-yard mark and eclipsed 150 in three.
Big plays are no stranger to Jefferson as 25 of his 68 receptions were for more than 20 yards. For his career, Jefferson is averaging an insane 98.4 receiving yards per game which essentially supplies a 10.0 points floor in standard leagues. Factor in yardage bonuses, points per reception, and then potentially big play boosts, and his floor raises to about 15.0 to 18.0 points. It’s hard to compete with that as a floor before Jefferson even reaches the endzone or accounting for a big game.
Just to dial it back slightly, Jefferson only had five touchdowns last year and has just one season of four with double-digit scores (10). Touchdowns do tend to fluctuate on a yearly basis, and it’s hard to ignore the high level of play that Jefferson consistently displays. It will be interesting to see what the Vikings offense looks like without Kirk Cousins, but even last year when the veteran was hurt, Jefferson didn’t have a problem producing. With T.J. Hockenson sidelined at least for the first few weeks after tearing his ACL, Jefferson should also find himself targeted more often in the red zone.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Fantrax Writer: Brandon Blanco, @BrandonBlancoFF
Tyreek Hill was viewed as a luxury in Kansas City. It’s no surprise he has become the top priority in the Miami Dolphins’ offense, as well. It should be a priority of yours to draft the fastest man in the NFL with the first pick in your redraft leagues.
In six seasons with the Chiefs, Hill averaged over 20.0 fantasy ppg just twice. In his first two years with the Dolphins, he has achieved this average each season. Hill’s 1,479 receiving yards in 2018 with the Chiefs is his highest total in Kansas City. With the Dolphins, Hill has 1,710 and 1,799 receiving yards in each season respectively.
Hill’s Yards Per Reception has been the highest since 2018 and his Yards After the Catch rank fourth amongst receivers for the 2024 season. Additionally, his Yards Per Route Run ranks first last season as well as his league-leading 33.7% target share. Tyreek Hill is in for, yet again, another huge season in Miami, and worth using the first pick in drafts to build your team around.
Who are you taking with the first pick in 2024 fantasy football drafts? Share your take in the comments below and then make sure to check out our 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit for more great rankings and analysis.