Heading into the 2024 season, LSU’s win total is set at 9.5, and taking the under is a smart play at -168. Despite winning 10 games last year, the Tigers face significant challenges this season. The departure of Heisman-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels, along with their top playmakers, leaves LSU’s offense in a weaker position. Coupled with a suspect secondary and a tough schedule, it’s unlikely LSU can replicate their 2023 success.
Here’s why the under is the bet to make.
Analysis of LSU’s Under Win Total
LSU won 10 games last year, finishing one over its projected 2024 total. Although the team is still good, it simply cannot finish as well as it did in 2023. Their star quarterback, last season’s Heisman winner Jayden Daniels, left the team for the NFL draft. Through his passing and rushing, he was responsible for 4,946 yards of offense and 50 touchdowns. On top of that, the offense’s two best playmakers (Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers), also left for the NFL draft and were responsible for 31 combined receiving touchdowns a year ago.
The Tigers’ offense will now be led by junior Garett Nussmeier (who backed up Daniels last year) and two newly transferred receivers, C.J. Daniels and Zavion Thomas (from Liberty and Mississippi State, respectively). Both Daniels and Thomas are good receivers, averaging a PFF grade of 79.5 between the two of them in 2023. To put that into context, Thomas Jr and Nabers averaged an 83.6 PFF grade last year (this year’s receiving corps is worse). Nussmeier, in his limited opportunity, showed flashes, however does not have the upside that Daniels had as a starting quarterback.
A key area of weakness that will prevent the Tigers from winning close games again in 2024 is their secondary. Last season, according to PFF, LSU finished 92nd in team coverage grade and didn’t do much to improve. They will be fielding a secondary that is led by many of the same players, except with the addition of Jardin Gilbert, who transferred over from Texas A&M. Gilbert does add depth to the secondary; however, is not significant enough of an upgrade. Last season, he had a PFF grade of only 65.8.
According to Phil Steeles 2024 CFB Strength of Schedule rankings, LSU has the 26th most difficult schedule in the nation. In a four-week stretch to conclude the season, the Tigers have to play Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma. Apart from Vanderbilt, that is a very tough stretch – they would be lucky to win two of those. The main reason why LSU will not win as many games as last year is that even though their secondary would give up lots of big plays and points, they had a historically good offense that would give them a chance week in and week out. That will not be the case in 2024.