The wide receiver position is one of the most value-rich positions in all of fantasy football. With the 2024 NFL Preseason officially underway, there’s no better time to assess where we are in terms of depth charts, opportunities, and expectations for the upcoming fantasy football season. There’s usually an under-the-radar player that eventually becomes a MUST-START player by Week 5. Last year it was Puka Nacua. If you can find value at the position, it’s imperative to avoid drafting a bust early. That said, it’s our job to make sure you draft correctly every season, so let’s dive into three wide receivers you should avoid this year, despite the consensus opinion.
2024 Wide Receiver Busts
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers, WR13 consensus vs. My WR18
I’m not about to make an argument that Brandon Aiyuk isn’t as talented as people are making him out to be. That would be stupid and inform you that you can ignore anything I have to say. Aiyuk is an elite wide receiver in this league. I know it. Aiyuk knows it. The 49ers know it. But Aiyuk has had a busy offseason. He’s a professional, so I’m sure he spent plenty of time training, but there is a very real possibility Aiyuk ends up on the Steelers, as it’s been reported that the parameters of a deal are already in place, if the 49ers can’t come to an agreement. Russell Wilson or Justin Fields would be a downgrade from Brock Purdy and the high-powered 49ers offense, and I don’t think that’s a hot take. There’s a reason those two QBs aren’t on the same team from last year.
If Aiyuk stays with the 49ers, I’m still down on Aiyuk relative to consensus, because while Aiyuk is an elite WR, he’s also a boom or bust player. He’s not the kind of player that gets peppered targets all game on a bad team. In fact, the 49ers are Super Bowl contenders. They’re going to be up in a lot of games. Aiyuk has to make the most of his targets because the volume is not always there. Aiyuk finished with fewer than 8 fantasy points in six weeks last year. He finished as the WR18 or worse in 11 weeks last year. On top of that, the 49ers added Ricky Pearsall to the mix as a rookie slot target, who could potentially take his share of targets away from the usual suspects on San Fran. Aiyuk will have a solid year, but I don’t anticipate him being a borderline fantasy WR1 this year.
Malik Nabers, Giants, WR24 consensus vs. My WR49
Nabers has become the darling of the fantasy football world. And for good reason. The rookie was sensational at LSU, scoring 14 TDs on 89 catches (130 targets), and 1500+ yards receiving. If that’s not enough to believe he’s an elite talent, he went and dazzled with his physical metrics at the NFL Combine. He ran a 4.4 40-yard dash (92nd percentile), 98th percentile in his burst score, 80th percentile with a 10’+ catch radius, and went 6th overall to the Giants.
I understand the hype. This could be the next Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase. There’s just one major problem. THE GIANTS DON’T HAVE A QB! It’s shocking to me the amount of people who are willing to disregard how poor the QB play has been in New York. In six games last season, Jones threw for more than 205 yards only once. The year before that, Jones played 16 games and threw for 300+ yards twice. He’s simply not a threat. It’s hard for me to project a 1000+ yard season receiving for Nabers when there’s a strong chance he’s going to get a ~30% target share of a ~3,000-yard season passing. For reference, that would put Jones in line with the 2023 production of Minshew, Herbert (13 games), Wilson, and Bryce Young. Of those QBs, only Keenan Allen and Michael Pittman were 1,000+ yard receivers with their accompanying QBs. I’m not confident in saying the rookie is better than either of those vets quite yet. Drafting Nabers at WR24 is essentially making that bet.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals, WR9 consensus vs. My WR41
Here’s a similar argument. I love Marvin Harrison’s outlook. To be honest, I find him to be a better prospect than Malik Nabers, individually. While he didn’t participate in the NFL Combine, like Nabers, his college dominance speaks for itself. He also scored 14 TDs, on 1200+ yards receiving, 117 targets, and a 29% target share (with considerably worse QB play). On top of that, he’s the son of Hall of Famer, Marvin Harrison. He’s going to know all of the pro tricks, work ethic hacks, film study, etc. Many anticipate Harrison to be a rookie in name only, as he has the support system around him to have production beyond his years.
But like Nabers…the QB play isn’t really there from a passing yards prospective. While Kyler is certainly a better fantasy QB than Daniel Jones, in 8 games last year, he threw for 1800 yards. Keeping that pace for a full season compares him with the likes of Lamar Jackson and Geno Smith. Lamar obviously doesn’t have a 1,000-yard receiver, and Geno had DK Metcalf who finished with ~1100. Would you take Harrison over Metcalf today? I would not. Even in Kyler’s 2021 season, he threw for 3600 yards, and his top receiver finished with 982 yards (Kirk). Expectations need to be tempered.
Got a beef with Bradlee’s 2024 Wide Receivers To Avoid? Let him hear about it in the comments below!
Nabers and Harrison are both going to eat!
I agree! But not every single week…I think that’s what a lot of people are expecting.