For the past few weeks, I have been using my xFP model to evaluate pass-catchers and whether their performance has been deserved or not. To this point, the model has not really been extremely helpful in looking to the week ahead. It has mainly been reactionary in nature and while we as fantasy owners can certainly use that information, the true value of the model will come from it having forward-looking capabilities. This led me to a slightly different approach to this week’s column.
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Random Effects Model
Now with 10 weeks worth of data to work with, I wanted to see the impact on actual FP versus xFP by individual WR, QBs, and opposing defenses. While I will not go too in-depth into the details of the model itself, I used random effects to extract individual impact for each of those three categories. This will help me understand who has been most deserving of the differences between their actual and expected fantasy point totals. This shows the positive or negative difference between actual and expected points by controlling for defense and who is throwing them the ball. This could also be useful to show the difference between a starting QB and their backup.
Based on my results here are the top five pass-catchers who have the most positive impact on their targets from a fantasy point perspective. Amari Cooper, Mecole Hardman, Austin Ekeler, Austin Hooper, and Stefon Diggs.
From the QB side of things, the biggest impact players have been, Kirk Cousins. Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, and surprisingly Derek Carr. The biggest positive impacts defensively are the Cardinals, Raiders, Falcons, Giants, and Bengals. These are per pass impacts so this does not control for volume. The biggest negative impact defenses are the Patriots, Bills, Broncos, Cowboys, and Panthers.
Forward Thinking
Now that we have individualized impacts we can try to work with a model that can predict the week ahead. This is an initial run of the first model, but by using each player’s individual xFP per target, I can try to develop a predicted actualized target value controlling for the player themselves, their QB, and the defense they will face the upcoming week. Then using target share over the last three weeks as well as a predicted pass attempt total from fantasyfootballanalytics.net, I was able to develop an early projection run for all pass-catchers for Week 11. Below are the top 20 projected WRs based on this model.
| Receiver | Pred |
|---|---|
| D.Hopkins | 17.6 |
| T.Hill | 17.6 |
| M.Thomas | 15.5 |
| M.Evans | 15.0 |
| A.Cooper | 14.7 |
| J.Edelman | 14.2 |
| H.Henry | 14.2 |
| K.Allen | 13.8 |
| D.Moore | 13.7 |
| A.Tate | 13.7 |
| J.Landry | 13.4 |
| D.Chark Jr. | 13.4 |
| J.Jones | 13.1 |
| C.Samuel | 13.1 |
| T.McLaurin | 12.7 |
| M.Andrews | 12.4 |
| J.Brown | 12.3 |
| S.Watkins | 12.1 |
| T.Kelce | 12.0 |
| C.Godwin | 11.8 |
Going forward I want to take a retrospective look at each player I mention in this article as well as a deeper analysis of some unexpected options who could potentially pop for the week ahead. Based on my analysis the top play for this week is DeAndre Hopkins despite his rough matchup with the Ravens. An interesting name in the top 10 for me is Hunter Henry, the top projected TE on the board. Unsurprisingly, DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel, two favorites of my model appear in the top 20 for this week.
I am extremely excited to see how the model works out and will be fine-tuning it for the remainder of the season to see what can be done to better predict receiving lines for the week ahead.
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