We are so early in the season it can still be difficult to separate what matters from what is just noise. We are working with small sample sizes, but what you should be on the look out for is changes. If a pitcher is throwing harder or has a new pitch, well that stuff matters! If a pitcher is the same as he’s been and suddenly is off to a good/bad start, there could be something there, but we simply haven’t seen enough to know yet. However, there are three pitchers that fit this mold that I want to dive deep into. They are all three pitchers that I would be trying to acquire, all for different reasons!
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New Pitch Alert for Zach Eflin!
A new pitch is always a significant development. But when a pitcher is suddenly throwing a new pitch as his primary pitch and getting good results? That is definitely a head turner! The pitcher of note is… Zach Eflin! And that new pitch of his is his cutter. We did not see Eflin throw a cutter until the final two starts of 2018, according to Brooks Baseball. Then he threw it just over a quarter of the time. He must have worked on that pitch this offseason, because he is coming out firing, throwing it 30.5 percent in his first outing and 39.1 percent in his second. In that second start, the cutter was his most thrown pitch.
So far this season batters have hit just .222 with a .000 ISO against the cutter. That means he has yet to give up an extra-base hit on his new weapon. Additionally, it’s already become his best swing-and-miss pitch. Eflin has picked up 23 swinging strikes this season, with nine of them coming via his cutter. Not only does that equate to 37.5 percent of his swinging strikes, but it is also more than double the amount he has with any other pitch this season. He has recorded four swinging strikes with each of his four-seam, sinker and changeup. Eflin has pitched to a 0.75 ERA with a 1.99 FIP and 2.65 xFIP so far this season. He is averaging 10.50 K/9 and has made batters chase his pitches outside the zone at a career-high 32.7 percent rate so far.
There is so much to be excited for with Zach Eflin so far in this young season. He seems poised to breakout with this new cutter of his. I liked Eflin heading into the season due to his swing and miss ability and the fact that his ERA was significantly higher than his FIP. With this new weapon, I think he has the upside to finish as a Top-30 starting pitcher. The best part? You wouldn’t have to pay that price! If you are in need of some starting pitching help, I would shoot the Eflin owner an offer and try to land him now, as his price is only going to continue climbing.
Change in Arsenal for Marcus Stroman!
Just like a new pitch is a key change, regardless of when it occurs, so is a pitcher changing his arsenal. That has been the exact case for Marcus Stroman, who through three starts this season has been throwing his slider more than we have ever seen before. He has thrown his slider at least 35 percent of the time in all three starts, cumulating in a career-high 48.5 percent usage in his last outing. The slider has quickly become his best swing-and-miss pitch. He has recorded at least five swinging strikes with the slider in each game and it has been his leading swing and miss pitch in all three starts. In total, he has 22 swinging strikes with his slider, while he has eight or fewer with every other pitch. Additionally, batters have hit just .217 against his slider, which is the second lowest of all his pitches. He also has allowed just a .087 ISO against the slider, which is also the second lowest of all his pitches.
Many will look at Stroman’s 2.41 ERA, 2.02 FIP and 3.24 xFIP, or his career-high 24.3 percent strikeout rate and an 11.2 swinging strike rate and say it is early in the season. But I think that is the wrong answer. I think this is a different Stroman than we have seen in years past. I am a believer in Stroman, unlike in recent years, and would recommend trying to acquire him before the market catches up to the new Stroman.
Don’t Panic Over Two Starts with Zack Wheeler
There is no hiding behind the fact that I was the highest ranker on Zack Wheeler. I own him in a bunch of leagues and I cannot deny that he has not gotten off to a good start. However, allow me to talk you off the ledge. I have already had to debate co-owners about not benching Wheeler and I am sure many out there are considering doing the same, or perhaps even worse, selling low on Wheeler. To me, that would be a huge mistake.
If you remember, there were a few key reasons I was so high on Wheeler. The first was that he saw a velocity jump last year. He started the season sitting at 95.2 MPH and ultimately ended up sitting 96-97 MPH. In BOTH starts this season he has averaged 97.3+ MPH. Additionally, we have seen him hitting 98-99 MPH this season, which is what we saw last year. He has not yet dialed it up to 100 MPH like we saw last year, but we have already seen 99 MPH. The second was that he incorporated a new pitch, a split-finger. His usage of that pitch climbed in the latter two months to about 10 percent. While we have yet to see that, his pitch usage is on par with last season.
Additionally, I don’t believe that Wheeler’s struggles have been as bad as they seem. In the first outing he allowed four runs, but two were on a homer and one was charged to him, but was allowed by the bullpen. Additionally, he struck out seven in five innings that game. His second outing was disastrous. He allowed seven runs and seven walks, which is awful and I won’t deny it. But he had absolutely no command, which happens to starting pitchers. I am not making excuses, but everything I liked about Wheeler heading into the season, is exactly what he is doing this year. The uptick in velocity is still there. He is still throwing that split-finger and his pitch usage is identical. I still expect Wheeler to finish as a Top-20 starting pitcher and would send some low-ball offers if his owners are worried.
Follow me on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
Michael Florio is the winner of the 2018 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year and was a finalist for the 2017 Fantasy Football Writer of the Year. He has hosted video/radio shows, written for a number of print and web publications including the AP, NY Daily News and much more!
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