The Home of Fantasy Sports Analysis

2022 Fantasy Football Opportunity Tracker: Broncos and Raiders

The 2022 Opportunity Tracker is where fantasy football managers come to discover fantasy value and potential sleepers. We uncover value by analyzing team target distribution and adjusting for offseason additions and subtractions. Many players will have new homes in 2022-23 and leading up to the NFL Draft (April 28-30), this series provides some high-level insight into the fantasy impact of important offseason moves for each team. Using this insight, we can help managers stay ahead of the curve in dynasty leagues and uncover vacant roles where teams may rely on newcomers and/or rookies to make an impact.

One of the main concepts we use in this series is “Weighted Opportunity“, created by Scott Barrett at Pro Football Focus. Weighted Opportunity (wOpp) is a great way to equalize the value between targets and carries, particularly for running backs. The calculations for this series were done manually, using statistics provided by Pro-Football-Reference.

What!? Your league wasn’t hosted on Fantrax this past season!? Once you see how Fantrax stacks up to the competition, we think you’ll be singing a different tune next season.

Denver Broncos: Elway or the Highway

Key Additions: Russell Wilson

Notable Losses: Noah Fant

Vacant RB Weighted Opportunities: None

Vacant WR/TE Targets: 109

Russell Wilson joins the Broncos following an offseason trade, and it’s great news for their 2022 fantasy outlooks. He enters an offense that will have former Packers OC, and new Broncos HC Nathaniel Hackett calling plays. It’s difficult to distinguish how much impact Hackett had on the Packers’ offensive success of the past three years, but Hackett will certainly be applying some of those concepts to this Broncos offense. Wilson projects as a low-end QB1 with upside in this role, given that the offense could become more pass-heavy in 2022.

Green Bay lined up with three wide receivers about 61% of the time last season. This resulted in three WRs with a double-digit target share, but only one with a rosterable wOpp (Davante Adams). Part of that was QB-style of play, but the biggest benefactors were the running backs. The Broncos have two solid starting running backs in Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. Williams finished with 12.1 wOpp per game and Gordon with 11.8. This is similar to the Packers, though AJ Dillon doesn’t yet have the pass-catching ability of Melvin Gordon. Their workloads were identical, and given that fact, Melvin Gordon can be drafted at a massive discount, relative to ADP. Javonte Williams is still one of the top dynasty RB options but is no longer a first-round fantasy RB.

Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy have the best shot to lead the Broncos receiving group. This pairing is similar to what Wilson had in Seattle with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I don’t expect there to be a 30% target share in Denver (like Davante Adams in 2021), rather one or both of these players should exceed a 20% target share. Courtland Sutton can be drafted one or more round(s) later than Jeudy, and for that reason, is the preferred WR to own in Denver. Sutton has a strong edge due to his red-zone upside, but both players are excellent value around the 7th round. Tim Patrick is best suited as a deeper-league flier.

Albert Okwuegbunam steps into a role that gave Noah Fant 9.3 wOpp per game. The tight end was used consistently in the red zone in 2021 for Denver, giving Albert O a decent floor in 2022. If he gets the same 5.6 targets per game as Fant from 2021, Okwuegbunam should be a top-12 tight end in 2022 and can be drafted at a discount.

Las Vegas Raiders: Dude, Where’s My Carr?

Key Additions: Davante Adams, Demarcus Robinson, Mack Hollins

Notable Losses: Zay Jones

Vacant RB Weighted Opportunities: 110

Vacant WR/TE Targets: 134

Josh Jacobs averaged 15.7 wOpp per game in 2021 for the Raiders. His passing-game volume (4.3 targets per game) increased in 2021 and his red-zone usage was top-16 among running backs. Jacobs is a good player to roster for managers who prefer higher-floor players as opposed to high-ceiling players. For ceiling-oriented managers, James Conner and Leonard Fournette are better options in this draft pick range.

Davante Adams takes a slight hit entering this Raiders offense, as he had a 30% target share in 2021 in Green Bay. Hunter Renfrow (21%) had the highest target share in Las Vegas last season, so that should be the floor for Adams this season. He is a mid-range WR1 in this role, but his per-game volume should grow to be similar to his time in Green Bay by season’s end. Renfrow has WR3 upside in 12+ team leagues.

Darren Waller will be a topic of debate during draft season due to his age, and the arrival of Davante Adams. His role shouldn’t change much from last season, save for a few fewer red-zone targets. He will see less coverage across the middle of the field, and the Raiders will consciously try to get him the ball over the middle of the field, as they have done since his breakout season. Waller and Adams are the main pass-catchers in Las Vegas and should dominate usage in this Raiders offense.

Fantrax was one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites over the last few years, and we’re not stopping now. We are the most customizable, easy-to-use, and feature-rich platform in the industry, offering the greatest fantasy experience for your dynasty, keeper, redraft, and best ball leagues. Fantasy sports doesn’t sleep, and neither does Fantrax, with seasons running 365 days a year. Take your fantasy leagues to the next level now at!
Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.