It’s all about that value. We want to avoid over-drafting players. That is critical to our success as busts can easily derail a season. Not only are you left with a dud on your team, but there’s also the opportunity cost of how that pick could have been used. The catching position is always a little more interesting as your league setup very much comes into play here. If only one catcher is required, then things become a great deal easier than those in which you have to start two. While the advice here is based more on deeper, or two-catcher leagues, it translates across all formats. There’s a difference to remember that it’s not that we necessarily don’t like a player, but we don’t like their draft day price. Let’s jump into our 2025 catching busts.
5 Catching Busts to Avoid
Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
There is no disputing that Adley Rutschman is one of the best catchers in baseball. He comes off the board as one of the top three to five options, but that is higher than it needs to be. We are in a new age of fantasy baseball where the catcher crop is strong and also filled with power hitters.
Rutschman will continue to bat at the top of Baltimore’s order while playing about 150 games. His batting average fell from .277 to .250 last year but the lack of strikeouts is a plus. Last season, Rutschman struck out just 16.1% of the time but his ISO fell to .140. It shouldn’t have come as a surprise that the catcher had just 19 home runs to go along with 79 RBI and 68 runs scored. A 6.1% barrel rate isn’t going to generate overwhelming excitement for me. That’s not worth a sixth-round pick.
Perhaps in another time when scarcity was something that we had to be more aware of, my opinion would be different. However, based on the current state of the position and the options available to us, you will likely be left disappointed.
JT Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies
This is not truly a knock on JT Realmuto as he’s going to turn 34 before Opening Day. He’s had a strong career as one of the best catchers in baseball, but we can’t live in the past with him either. Realmuto is continuing to slide down the Philadelphia batting order, and he isn’t the same player he once was. It’s not exactly surprising as the aging curve with catchers is steeper, but he should be drafted accordingly.
For a long time, one of Realmuto’s calling cards was that he was a base-stealing catcher. However, after just two stolen bases last year, I wouldn’t plan on that being the case any longer. At .266 last year, that part of Realmuto’s game should remain relatively consistent as he did have a .273 xBA. Anything between .250 and .270 is reasonable, but with no more stolen bases, we need the power production. And that also appears to be dwindling.
Realmuto still had a solid 10.4% barrel rate and 45.9% hard-hit rate last year, but his average launch angle dropped to 9.4 degrees. The gap between his SLG (.429) and xSLG (.472) does give us some hope, but his ISO also decreased to .163. His home runs decreased from 20 to 14, but health was an issue here as Realmuto only played 99 games after 135 the year prior. The problem though, is that even if his other numbers return, without the stolen bases is he worth an ADP of 133?
Within stand-alone catcher rankings, that’s probably still the case, but it’s too risky for me there. In reality, you are likely sacrificing power for just a few points on your batting average.
Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks
Heralded for his batting average, Gabriel Moreno is more of a liability than anything. After hitting .284 in 2023, Moreno followed that up with a .266 average. While it’s at the top of the list for catchers, it’s not much better than the league average. Moreno did walk 11.7% of the time last year, so that gives him even more of a boost in OBP leagues. The problem though, is that’s about as far as I’m willing to go with the good stuff.
After playing in 111 games last year, Moreno got in 97 last year. The late-season emergence of Adrian Del Castillo could also play a factor in that moving forward. That’s not even the biggest issue though.
With just five home runs and an overall lack of power, Moreno is a straight-up liability. Between the playing time concerns, lack of power, and no other overwhelming tools, it’s hard to find much confidence in Moreno. Neither his 6.6% barrel rate nor his .115 ISO generates any optimism.
Connor Wong, Boston Red Sox
With a .280 batting average in 126 games last season, it was only natural that Connor Wong would attract our attention. The problem though, is that I’m not sure the data supports a repeat performance in 2025. And with just 13 home runs and 52 RBI last year, there isn’t enough power to prop him up either.
Between a .348 BABIP and .233 xBA, we are looking at some substantial regression. With a 73.5% contact rate, Wong simply doesn’t do a good enough job putting the bat on the ball. And when that does occur, not much good happens. With an ISO of just .145, Wong isn’t a power threat and his 6.6% barrel rate also reflects that. The gap between Wong’s .425 SLG and .363 xSLG is equally as concerning. This is a situation I’m staying away from. That is especially the case since Wong is being drafted as a high-end C2.
Jonah Heim, Texas Rangers
A season after driving in 95 runs, Jonah Heim dropped down to 59 RBI in 2024. One of the issues is that it came in the same number of games; 131.
Heim also saw his batting average drop to .220, but that wasn’t the biggest issue. While his home runs did decrease from 18 to 13, that’s not the biggest issue. Instead, it’s important to remember that power was never a redeeming skill set for Heim. Perhaps more concerning though, Heim saw his ISO decrease to just .115 last year. With a barrel rate of only 5.9%, it’s hard to feel much confidence in Heim and his ability to drive the ball. Texas also signed Kyle Higashioka this off-season so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him take on a larger role.