Analyzing statistical data is a huge part of analyzing Fantasy Football. Crunching the numbers, identifying what those numbers mean, and forming conclusions is a solid process for making future predictions in the Fantasy Football world. This process can lead to identifying Fantasy Football sleepers, breakouts, and making bold predictions for the coming season.
I have a handful of 2024 advanced statistics that I hand-calculated this offseason. I have these statistics saved in various spreadsheets, and thought now was a great time to whip these data sets out and draw some conclusions from them. I hope you walk away with plenty of new knowledge from this article, that you can directly apply to your current Fantasy Football teams or future Fantasy Football drafts. The amount of data sets available out there in the NFL world is an extensive list, but I have eight that I felt were interesting to discuss for this piece.
2025 Fantasy Football Conclusions from 2024 Advanced Data
RB Fantasy Points Per Touch (FPPT)
- Total touches = Carries + Catches
- FPPT = Total Fantasy Points / Touches
- 50 Touch Minimum. 0.77+ FPPT Minimum
- How efficient were running backs with their total touches this year for Fantasy Football?
- Touchdowns were an obvious major factor
- Points per reception (PPR) scoring
Justice Hill (Ravens) feels like a guy who stands out here because he had a substantial role in 2024 as a pass-catching option for Baltimore, with Derrick Henry absorbing so much work. Austin Ekeler (Commanders) is another interesting name at the top, who flashed his historical pass-catching upside year-one in Washington last year. Both Hill and Ekeler can deliver sneaky PPR upside as pass-catchers in 2025. If Head Coach Ben Johnson implements a two-running back system in Chicago like he did back in Detroit, then Roschon Johnson (Bears) could be fighting for some Fantasy Football relevance as another player who pops on this list high. Rachaad White (Buccaneers) seems to have value that trends more and more down this off-season due to the rise of Bucky Irving, but should continue to have a solid pass-catching role for Tampa Bay in 2025. A last sleeper I would like to point out on this list is Tyjae Spears (Titans), who will fight Tony Pollard for reps in 2025 with a new quarterback leading that Titans offense in Cam Ward.
WR Fantasy Points Per Touch (FPPT)
- Total touches = Carries + Catches
- FPPT = Total Fantasy Points / Touches
- 30 Touch Minimum. Top 42 displayed in FPPT
- How efficient were running backs with their total touches this year for Fantasy Football?
- Variables: touchdowns, air yards, big plays made, yards after the catch, volume, etc
- Points per reception (PPR) scoring
Alec Pierce (Colts) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Dolphins) are the clear leaders of this category, with Pierce having some splash big-yardage and NWI having major touchdown upside in 2024. Pierce will have Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones competing for the starting job, and may be more of a best-ball target. Westbrook-Ikhine could find a bigger role in his new Miami landing spot, if Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins cut ties. Demarcus Robinson (49ers) is now a 49er, and always seems to pop off for a few weeks a year. Rashod Bateman (Ravens) took a step forward statistically in 2024, and although the Ravens brought in veteran DeAndre Hopkins this offseason, we may see the former first-round selection in Bateman continue to trend up. Keon Coleman (Bills) felt super disappointing as a second-round rookie attached to Josh Allen last year, but still should not be written off after just one season. I loved Jalen McMillan’s (Buccaneers) hot stretch last season as a rookie, and although he is likely behind all of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and rookie Emeka Egbuka for targets in 2025 he still should be stashed for the future. Calvin Austin III (Steelers) had some flashes of upside last season, and with George Pickens now in Dallas he could fight for a larger role in 2025.
% of Games with 100+ Receiving Yards
- What percent of a receiver’s games played in 2024 did they finish with 100+ receiving yards
- Games with 100+ Receiving Yards / Games
Puka Nacua (Rams) missed time in his sophomore year, but was elite for Fantasy Football when on the field. This stat is an example of how great Puka was, and for this specifically, he stands in his own tier (45.45%). Puka has a real shot to be a WR1 overall candidate next year. AJ Brown (Eagles) feels unappreciated for the position at times due to the excitement of younger players, when it is clear each and every year that his receiving yard upside is as high as anyone else’s. Zay Flowers (Ravens) was vital for the Ravens offense in 2024, but did not necessarily have the Fantasy Football breakout we wanted. Flowers is a guy who could have his first major Fantasy breakout in 2025. Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) and Cooper Kupp (Seahawks) are two veteran wide receivers who can bounce back in 2025 for Fantasy Football, and obviously showed juice left in the tank last year at some sort of capacity. Within the upper portion of this list is another underrated standout who has delivered plenty of Fantasy Football FLEX value but continues to not get the hype he deserves: Jakobi Meyers (Raiders). Seeing how high George Kittle (49ers) ranks on this list as a tight end should give you confidence he has another big season in 2025, especially with Deebo Samuel gone and Brandon Aiyuk recovering from an injury.
% of Games Played with 100+ Rushing Yards
- What percent of a running back’s games played in 2024 did they finish with 100+ rushing yards
- Games with 100+ Rushing Yards / Games
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) year one with Philly in 2024 was explosive for Fantasy Football and led to a Super Bowl. Pending health, I see zero reason for Barkley to regress much in 2025. Jonathan Taylor (Colts) missed a few games but showed us his former RB1 overall upside from the past in windows as a high-upside rusher. Derrick Henry (Ravens) and Joe Mixon (Texans) were two backs outside of Barkley who had huge Fantasy Football seasons in new homes as veterans. James Conner (Cardinals) is always underrated for Fantasy Football, but he produces effectively for Arizona as a workhorse. Jordan Mason (Vikings) is a sleeper on this list, as ap layer who was explosive for the 49ers when healthy and given the RB1 role and now backs up a veteran in Aaron Jones who has a history of missing time. The Panthers having two players in the same colored tier for 2025 in Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle may prove to be more depth than people credit. Veteran running backs truly owned this data set.
% of Games with 300+ Passing Yards
- What percent of a quarterback’s games played in 2024 did they finish with 300+ passing yards
- Games with 100+ Rushing Yards / Games
Joe Burrow (Bengals) was an MVP candidate in 2024 with him having a massive year through the air connected to the explosion of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins when healthy. Chase and Higgins were paid this offseason heavily, and that duo healthy should raise the ceiling of Burrow in 2025. Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) and Jared Goff (Lions) led two solid offenses in 2024, and should continue to have high upside through the air in 2025, but the standout right there with them is Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins). People forget that Tua led the NFL in passing yards back in 2023, and even though we are unsure of Tyreek Hill’s future, it is evident that a healthy Tua has plenty of upside through the air. The likes of Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, and rookie Jack Bech from the Raiders will like to see Geno Smith (Raiders) high on this list. Dak Prescott (Cowboys) is one of the most obvious bouce-back candidates for 2025 after playing just eight games in 2024 due to his passing upside and now adding George Pickens to CeeDee Lamb this offseason. Caleb Williams (Bears) had arguably the best offseason with the hiring of Ben Johnson, added offensive line pieces, and added weapons. Williams popping where he does on this list prior to all of these positive additions is important to note, especially seeing him above the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, CJ Stroud, and other respected names.
Yards After Catch Per Target
- YAC/T = Yards After Catch Per Target (YAC / Targets)
- An efficiency metric that emphasizes playmaking ability
- 50+ targets + 2.70 YAC/T minimum
Marvin Mims Jr (Broncos) had some spike flashes through his two-year career, and we saw some big games connected to Bo Nix. Mims has an opportunity to fight for a substantial role in 2025 as the Broncos’ potential “Rashid Shaeed” wide receiver (big, splash plays). Khalil Shakir (Bills) continues to be underrated after being (by far) the best receiver for the Bills last season who was extended this offseason. Jameson Williams (Lions) finally had a big season after so much hope for him as an explosive prospect, but I do not think 2024 was anywhere near his ceiling as a difference-maker. Deebo Samuel (Commanders) has been written off by many after his bust of a season in 2024, but clearly still has plenty of playmaking tools in the bag via this data and has an opportunity to bounce-back for Fantasy in his new Washington home. I still have a ton of belief in Jayden Reed (Packers) and his versatility as a playmaker for the Packers. If only Green Bay used him properly, and gave him the snap percentage he should. Demario Douglas (Patriots) now has Stefon Diggs in town and rookie Kyle Williams to compete with for the Patriots, but has flashed his two opening seasons as a target earner and playmaker.
20+ Yard Rushing Leaders Under 200 Rushing Attempts
- Which running backs had the most 20+ yard rushing plays, who ran the ball under 200 times
Jordan Mason (Vikings) is mentioned again, and is truly a must-handcuff player for 2025. Mason exploded when given the opportunity for the 49ers last year, and now backs up an aging veteran in Aaron Jones for the Vikings who has had an injury history. Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks) always gives us the feeling that this is his year for a Fantasy Football breakout, and with data like this you have to say 2025 could be that year finally if he can stay healthy. Many people though that JK Dobbins’ (Free Agent) career was over following the series of injuries he faced, but he had some major rushing days in 2024 and should have been the Comeback Player of the Year. Dobbins will make an impact once he gets signed, and I am surprised he has not been yet. Tyrone Tracy Jr. was a big surprise last year, who worked his way into a bigger role for the Giants and can continue to thrive pending his split with rookie Cam Skattebo in 2025 for New York.
8+ Targets but 65 or Less Receiving Yards Per Game
- Wide receivers that averaged eight or more targets per game but 65 or less receiving yards per game
- Quarterback play is an obvious variable here along with the abilities of a wide receiver
This list was extremely interesting to me. Am I saying to go and sell these players in your leagues or avoid them? No. Am I saying there can be room for concern or some of these guys are showing red flags? Sure. Garrett Wilson (Jets) is now reunited with his former college quarterback in Justin Fields, so we will see how that connection goes. Wilson has generally been disappointing for Fantasy Football vs. expectation, but is coming off of his best Fantasy season in 2024. Jauan Jennings (49ers) was one of the best waiver wire pick-ups of last season, as a guy who capitalized on vacated roles due to 49 injuries. I am not sold on Jennings as a talent, who has been completely irrelevant through his NFL career for Fantasy up until 2024. Courtland Sutton (Broncos) should still be the WR1 for the Broncos in 2025 after having a 2024 season with rookie Bo Nix, but I am a bit concerned with the number of targets he earned vs. the flat receiving yard production he finished with. Veteran tight end Evan Engram will have an impact on Sutton in some capacity in 2025, on top of that. Wan’Dale Robinson (Giants) earned a heavy target total in 2024 but did not do much with it for the Giants. But in his defense, he now has three quarterbacks in 2025 (Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and rookie Jaxson Dart) who are better than any quarterback he played with in 2024.
