2025 Fantasy Football Divisional Breakdowns – AFC South

The AFC South is the physical representation of “comedic chaos.” Each of these teams has a history of losing to each other in ways that would shock and surprise anyone. Yes, there have been great years from each of these storied franchises, with a couple playing the role of Super Bowl Contender year after year. But in recent years, the AFC South has struggled to find a foothold to keep up with the heavy hitters around the NFL. The Texans are the current Kings of the mole hill, but things can change on a dime in this league.

Anyway, there are a handful of relevant fantasy players scattered across this division. We even have a few interesting sleepers to keep in the back of our minds.

2025 Fantasy Football Divisional Previews – AFC South

Houston Texans

Looking Back on 2024

Despite making the playoffs with a 10-7 record, I think it’s fair to say the Houston Texans had a disappointing end to their season. C.J. Stroud regressed after earning OROY honors in 2023, leaving many fantasy football managers wanting much, much more. Whether it’s solely Stroud’s fault (between questionable playcalling from head coach-hopeful-now-jobless Bobby Slowik, shaky offensive line play, and plenty of WR injuries) is up for debate, but the truth is that Stroud did not ascend in his sophomore season as many had hoped.

Nico Collins missed time in 2024 but managed to squeak past that 1,000-yard mark while coming just short of matching 2023’s TD total. Joe Mixon was a fun surprise at running back because it was tough to fully anticipate his utilization in this offense. He was a bell-cow through and through, until the last few weeks of the season, when it seemed as though the offense stalled out.

Looking Forward to 2025

The offensive outlook for Houston is a bit of a Sour Patch Kid, a bit sweet and sour. The sweet parts – a new offensive coordinator paired with an exciting pair of rookie receivers to flank Nico, and to give Stroud new options in the passing game. The sour – a questionable offensive line with a very complicated backfield. The signing of Nick Chubb and the selection of Woody Marks in this year’s draft add a fair amount of uncertainty into who will be the best fantasy asset. Dameon Pierce is still hanging around, but we all know that ship has sailed. This team is still primed to win the division, though trying to figure out who the consistent fantasy producers are, outside of the usual suspects, will be tricky.

Fantasy Relevant Players

C.J. Stroud, QB

Stroud set the dynasty world on fire when he finished as the QB11 in his rookie season. He then set it ablaze once again by tumbling all the way down to QB18 in the following year. The true value of C.J. Stroud lies somewhere in the middle as he profiles as a typical pocket-passer that won’t really tip the matchup in your favor without some incredible passing numbers. Stroud is a very good NFL quarterback that you’ll be happy to field in your lineups. He’s also pretty cheap in drafts, making him an enticing option for those looking to punt at QB this upcoming draft season. As steady as they come, Stroud will most likely hang out around that QB12-QB15 range once again.

Joe Mixon, RB

Joe Mixon is as boring as they come when it comes to veteran running backs in the middle of the draft. However, “boring” doesn’t necessarily mean “bad.” Last year, he went on a tear in the middle of the season, scoring touchdowns in six games in a row while topping 100 yards in five of those six. We call him boring because he’s been around forever, and, frankly, name fatigue is a very real thing. He’s a grinder who can routinely take on 20+ carries a game. It’s unclear if this new offensive coordinator wants to see Mixon handle the ball that often, but it’s hard to imagine a world where Mixon isn’t a key player in this system.

Nico Collins, WR

There isn’t a ton to say about Nico Collins because he’s just very good and has shown us exactly who he is. He’s a dominant wide receiver who, even after missing some time, can easily top 1,000 yards receiving on the season. Collins and Stroud have incredible chemistry on the field and can often guarantee one huge play per game. Collins is easily a top-10 wide receiver in the league and should bounce back to land somewhere closer to WR1 territory.

Fantasy Question Marks

Jaydin Higgins, WR

The first of the two Iowa State receivers, Higgins is as close a Nico Collins clone as you can get. Higgins is a big outside threat who will probably stretch the field opposite of Collins on day one. After all, Houston took him in the second round, leaving us to believe they want him as a part of their game plan straight away. As with all rookies, it’s going to come down to his ability to adjust to the NFL game to see if he’s able to produce for fantasy.

Christian Kirk, WR

Christian Kirk had one very exciting season with the Jaguars and that is probably all he needs at this point to continue to get contracts. Kirk is a serviceable wideout that will start the season as the main slot-man, given he isn’t wildly outplayed by our next player.

Jaylin Noel, WR

The second man out of Iowa State, Jaylin Noel, is a bettor’s favorite to replace an injured Tank Dell. Noel is the smaller of the two Cyclones drafted by the Texans, which would have most folks thinking he’s pigeonholed into playing in the slot. Yes, he did play 72% of his time in the slot in college, but he does possess the ability to play outside, as seen by his 25% snap share as an out-wide option (per PFF). He has a bit of climbing through the depth chart to do, but don’t be surprised to see his name pop up on waiver wire articles after Week 1 or Week 2.

Nick Chubb, RB

I absolutely love Nick Chubb – as a player and as a person. If anything bad ever came out about Chubb I’d simply never recover.

Anyway, Chubb signed with the Texans, and now the entire backfield is confusing to navigate. He came back from a devastating knee injury last season and looked unlike his past self, understandably so. If he makes strides in regaining that lost step in his running game, Mixon and Chubb will certainly be splitting carries sooner rather than later. For now, however, Chubb is second fiddle in Mixon’s backfield.

Fantasy Long Shots

Dalton Schultz (TE), Cade Stover (TE), Woody Marks (RB), Dameon Pierce (RB), John Metchie (WR)

The tight end room in Houston is not one I’m overly excited about. If you needed to make a bet on who could be a real difference maker, I’d rather put chips on Stover than Schultz. Stover, at least, doesn’t look like he’s running through concrete after the catch. Woody Marks was drafted in the 4th round in this year’s draft, and it’s just important to know his name. There’s a long line ahead of him to get playing time, so wait until he does something before scooping him up. Dameon Pierce might as well be a special-teams player at this point because it’s doubtful he’s relevant again. John Metchie might get some play time here and there, but after seeing his team draft two wide receivers in the first three rounds, the dream might be over.

Indianapolis Colts

Looking Back on 2024

It’s got to be tricky being a Colts fan after going from Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck to the carousel of quarterbacks that they’ve had to get to today. I get it, quarterback is the hardest position in sports, and trying to find one that can pick up wins is even harder. However, seeing the 4th overall selection in Anthony Richardson get benched for Joe Flacco was a tough watch as a non-Colts fan. Once Richardson came back into the lineup, we found out that he was just the same guy even after the benching. Tough break for Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, and the rest of the receiving group. Jonathan Taylor remained excellent as always, though. So we love to see that.

Looking Forward to 2025

This Colts team looks like a mess, which means there’s probably some sneaky fantasy value somewhere in there. A bunch of these players have discounted rates because of the shaky quarterback room, and I, for one, am all for it. Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to projecting wins and losses for this squad. Shockingly, Vegas has the Colts’ total win line set at 7.5, which seems like 3 more wins than I would have imagined. Though because they play each of their division mates twice, that does give them a chance to somehow win six games.

Fantasy Relevant Players

Jonathon Taylor, RB

Ol’ Reliable. Jonathan Taylor is one of those great running backs who are cursed to play on mediocre teams. He’s a great value in redraft with his current ADP sitting around RB11 because he is someone who can easily crack that top 10 threshold. If the end of the 2024 season was any indication of what Taylor can bring to the table this year, he will surely be seen as one of the better draft picks this season.

Josh Downs, RB

Ending up in the 9th round in some mock drafts, Josh Downs is a slam-dunk pick in this range. Downs is the most exciting receiver on this team when he actually sees catchable targets. He is more of a PPR play than other receivers, but that feels more like a byproduct of poor QB play than anything else. You’ll probably find yourself needing to take a shot at one of these Indianapolis pass catchers at some point, might as well go with the guy who routinely saw 9 targets in 2024.

(Reluctantly) Michael Pittman, WR

There was a small window where Michael Pittman was an exciting pickup in fantasy. Sadly, that was three years ago after his sophomore season. The Michael Pittman we are working with, as fantasy managers, is something far less tantalizing. Pittman remains a solid real-life WR but is a capped option in fantasy. He’s probably going to have another 100+ targets this season, we just need him to find the endzone a few more times to really help and become a fantasy difference maker.

Fantasy Question Marks

The entire QB room (Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, Riley Leonard)

I’m going to be real with you here – I absolutely adore this quarterback room. It’s three athletes just posing as quarterbacks. None of these QB’s have shown much of a penchant for throwing completed passes, but they sure do love running around and giving it their all. Well, except for Richardso,n who gets a little too tuckered out sometimes and needs to take a break.

On a more serious note, this quarterback room is great for fantasy but hilariously bad for the success of the Colts. Anthony Richardson needs to take a massive leap forward as a passer in order for this team to win games. If he gets benched, Daniel Jones is not much of a step up. There’s a part of me that believes Jones could be better outside of New York; however, that is something that we will need to see with our own eyes before trusting him in our lineups.

Tyler Warren, TE

As a highly anticipated rookie tight end, there’s very real excitement around Tyler Warren’s fantasy production in this offense. Warren can line up just about anywhere, giving him plenty of opportunity to stay on the field in any formation. I mean he can even play QB if the Colts think that would give them the best shot to win. The question we need to ask is, can these QBs even get Warren the ball? If they can’t, I’m not sure we will see consistent production from someone who should be a primary target in the offense.

Fantasy Long Shots

Alex Pierce (WR), Adonai Mitchell (WR), D.J. Giddens (RB)

The outside receivers are tough to rank in this Indianapolis offense. Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell feel more like Best Ball dart throws than weekly plays in redraft. They are wildly inconsistent thanks to shaky QB play and their own strengths as route runners. We can probably slot them in on weird bye-week scenarios, but don’t go out of your way to roster these WRs unless an injury occurs. D.J. Giddens is a really fun handcuff because he can do a lot of great things with the ball in his hands. He’s stuck behind JT, so only an injury will allow him to get on the field. Just another name to know as we head into the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Looking Back on 2024

The Jags came into 2024 absolutely furious about missing the playoffs in 2023. They had lost the final game of the season to miss out on the postseason despite starting the season 8-3. Four straight losses will do that to a team. However, that lingering frustration didn’t seem to help the Jags as they went ahead and lost four in a row to start the 2024 season. Lawrence was once again injured, Engram missed time with a surprise injury,  and Etienne struggled to build off of his strong 2023 finish. The lone bright spot was first-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. He did most of his damage once folks were injured, but he certainly has won a starting spot in 2025.

Looking Forward to 2025

So long Doug Peterson and hello Liam Coen: the Jaguars have a(nother) new head coach to hopefully get the most out of Trevor Lawrence and this young offense. BTJ is joined by another first-round “wide receiver,” Travis Hunter, giving the Jaguars a lethal one-two punch on the perimeter. The passing game for Jacksonville should have fantasy managers rather excited for the year. It’s the running back room that’ll have folks scratching their head and pulling out hair.

Fantasy Relevant Players

Trevor Lawrence, QB

The “generational prospect” has certainly failed to live up to his collegiate track record. One playoff run, with an insanely impressive win in the wild card round, is all Lawrence has to show for his young stint in the pros. This year should be the year he pulls it all together. Right now, as it stands, he’s just an OK QB. We need something a little bit better to win our fantasy leagues.

Travis Etienne, RB

Whether or not you play dynasty, you should consider yourself lucky if you don’t own Travis Etienne. The Jaguars’ “RB1” is one of the most frustrating and confusing players to roster right now. He’s equally perplexing when you start to look at his ADP in redraft. As of the time of writing, Etienne is about a 7/8th round selection in HPPR. That is somehow both a great deal and an obvious trap that plenty of managers will stumble into. If he’s your third or fourth RB on your roster, you’ll probably not mind having him on your bench to take a “wait and see” approach to that backfield. If he’s starting for your roster, well, I hope you’re alright with a bunch of stress during your Sunday afternoons.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR

A true surprise to all of us, Brian Thomas Jr. helped provide a sparkle of hope for this Jaguars offense. Thousands of fantasy managers are going to look toward Thomas’ direction to help them win a championship in 2025 because he’s one of those 2nd round guys who can easily replicate his top 5 finish. The Jags lost both Christian Kirk and Evan Engram in the off-season, leaving the door wide open for about 500 targets (hyperbole) to go straight towards BTJ. I think Brian Thomas is as sure as sure things can be in this year’s draft. The only thing we don’t know is his actual ceiling.

Fantasy Question Marks

Travis Hunter, WR/DB

“Is Travis Hunter going to be good for fantasy football?” Ask several different fantasy analysts this question, and you’ll get several different answers. One thing that they all share in common is a sentiment of excitement and wonder. What type of production will he have while playing both sides of the ball? How much will playing defense affect his offensive usage? Can he actually be elite at both positions like we saw in college? Hunter is by far the most talented player who is surrounded by uncertainty. The drum beat from camp is signaling that Hunter will be primarily an offensive weapon. If that’s the case, he should be going in the top 5 rounds easily. We just have to be patient and wait for a little more information before we can get too giddy about a new rookie WR sensation.

Brenton Strange, TE

I don’t know what to make of the new TE1 in Jacksonville. I don’t really see him as a huge matchup breaker, but he’s probably someone who ends up getting a spot in your starting roster every week. You could do worse than Strange if you punt at TE early in your drafts. He did have one game where he saw 12 targets, but I really doubt that he will see that type of volume again. Cool to see it happen though!

Tank Bigsby, RB

Travis Etienne’s owners hate this guy. In his sophomore season, Tank put up more carries, yards, and TDs than Etienne. That’s great! He also had three fumbles throughout the year, two more than Etienne, which is not so great. Bigsby sits in the ‘question mark’ group because it’s incredibly difficult to determine if this past season is indicative of what’s to come. A new coaching staff means everyone is back to fighting for their starting spot. Bigsby could theoretically win the job, but until we see him do that, I think we have to assume Etienne is still the “starter”.

Fantasy Long Shots

Bhayshul Tuten (RB), Dyami Brown (WR)

Bhayshul Tuten is someone that a lot of dynasty players and rookie-tape grinders seem to love. He’s incredibly fast, like track-star fast, and is a threat to score whenever he touches the ball. The issue is that he needs to hang onto the ball a bit more consistently. Four fumbles in 2024 doesn’t seem like much, but ball security is job security, as a rookie, that could mean a quick trip to the doghouse. Dyami Brown comes over from Washington to serve as another deep threat. No idea if the Jaguars really are aiming to utilize his talents, but he can pop up here and there as a weekly streamer.

Tennessee Titans

Looking Back on 2024

There wasn’t much to fondly look back on in terms of the 2024 Tennessee Titans. The highlight may have been all the great reaction photos we got from Will Levis doing ridiculous things. Otherwise, it was a 3-14 season that had some good games from Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard. That’s all we can really say about that.

Looking Forward to 2025

With the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Tennessee Titans selected Cam Ward to lead their franchise out of the basement. The hope for the Titans is that a non-Levis quarterback can help their offense function like a real NFL offense. Tennessee also added a slew of pass catchers in the draft and free agency to revamp the wide receiver room for their new QB. Calvin Ridley still remains the top billing, but Tyler Lockett, Chimere Dike, Elic Ayomanor, and Gunner Helm are all fighting for targets in this offense. The running back room is the same, so no news is good news for Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears.

Fantasy Relevant Players

Cam Ward, QB

As far as later round QBs go in redraft, Cam Ward is a fun dart throw this season. He isn’t necessarily a threat to scramble, but he isn’t a total statue behind the line. There is a lot of unknown around Cam Ward, so that will surely turn some drafters away. If the Titans did hit on one of their new receiving additions, Ward could be a consistent contributor to any fantasy roster. He’s going to be fantasy relevant because he’s a starting QB. We just don’t know how relevant he will be until the season is underway.

Tony Pollard, RB

Tony Pollard quietly had a serviceable RB2 season. An upgrade at quarterback should help out his cause and allow him to see more positive game scripts. Pollard is shaping up to be one of those safety valves in the middle rounds for those rosters looking to shore up the running back position. He has medium upside and a solid floor. Boring, but useful.

Calvin Ridley, WR

The excitement around Calvin Ridley’s return has taken a nosedive since joining the Titans. His single year with the Jaguars was fun and reminded us all of the receiver he was back with the Falcons. Now we are all hoping that the 30-year-old Ridley can squeak out one more 1,000-yard season with a rookie QB.

Fantasy Question Marks

Tyjae Spears, RB

Spears had a great run to finish his 2024 campaign, but it’s important to note that for the majority of the season, he wasn’t much of a factor in the offense. As a handcuff, he certainly has a ton of value, but outside of that, I can’t help but think he will stay as a change-of-pace back to give Pollard a breather. He did suffer a slew of injuries that made him miss time, so that could be a reason to cut him some slack.

Chig Okonkwo, TE

The incumbent TE1 is a fascinating case study in how a QB preference can change a tight end’s production. With Levis under center, Okokwo didn’t see more than four targets. Meanwhile, with Mason Rudolph at the helm, Okonkwo saw double-digit targets twice. Now that both of those QBs are out of the picture, we just have to hope Ward can find a way to get him the ball.

Tyler Lockett, WR

Woah, Tyler Lockett isn’t a Seahawk! Didn’t know that could happen. As he enters season 10 in his career, his new job is to help develop all these pups into receivers who can survive this long in this league. At the same time, he most likely ends up being one of the early-season target hogs for Ward as the rookie QB finds his rhythm. Lockett is a solid late-round shot that could bring a bunch of solid fantasy outings until the back half of the season. We should see some of the younger options emerge at that point in the year.

Fantasy Long Shots

Elic Ayomanor (WR), Chimere Dike (WR), Xavier Restrepo (WR), Gunner Helm (TE)

Whew, what to do with a three-pack of fourth-round pass catchers and a UDFA that was Ward’s primary target in college? We pick one and close our eyes, really. Elic Ayomanor has some of the most exciting upside of the group as someone who can potentially ascend in an alpha-type receiver. Chimere Dike is more of an unknown commodity. He was someone draft scouts didn’t discuss widely, and personally, I was shocked when his name came through on draft night. This could mean the Titans saw something they really liked that wasn’t well showcased on the field at Florida.

Gunner Helm was a huge part of the Texas offense and served as a reliable target for Quinn Ewers during their CFP run. Finally, we have Xavier Restrepo, with his 4.8 40 that tanked his draft stock. Restrepo logged back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns to finish his collegiate career, having career highs in yards and touchdowns with Ward as his QB. When the Titans signed Restrepo as an UDFA, I could only imagine Ward had some amount of input into that decision. Whether the slot man out of Miami can solidify a spot on the roster is still up in the air. It’ll be an interesting camp monitor for these Tennessee pass catchers.

For more great fantasy football rankings and analysis, make sure to check out the 2025 FantraxHQ Fantasy Football Draft Kit!