Bust is a relative term. Ultimately, the higher the draft choice, the bigger the emphasis on getting the pick correct. There’s also an opportunity cost in play, as for every player you select, there are others that you leave in the player pool for your opponent to select. Upside is the name of the game when it comes to wide receivers. They are at the mercy of their teams and game plans, so that makes things more difficult. If we are in PPR leagues, the name of the game changes as we need high reception totals as a floor. Let’s take a look at three wide receiver busts for the upcoming season. This will be in the context of Fantrax ADP data as of 8/09/25.
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2025 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins, ADP of 30
Nothing about Tyreek Hill’s 2024 season went according to plan. Hill did play through a wrist injury that ultimately required surgery at the end of the season, but it wasn’t a performance we have come to expect. At the same time, though, Hill did catch 81 passes for 959 yards and six touchdowns, so how much can we truly criticize him? However, it’s certainly not what we want out of a third-round pick.
Drafting Hill this high assumes that he’s going to have a seamless return to health in 2025. We are also making the assumption that there are no health issues. Potentially more important, we must also trust that there are no chemistry issues after drama surrounded Hill and his future in Miami after the end of the season. Hill is also dependent upon a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, and that’s something that can’t be treated as a certainty.
There’s a lot to like about Hill’s past performance and track record, but he’s only had three seasons of double-digit touchdowns. The metrics, aside from Hill’s 11.2-yard depth of target, are there for Hill, but we’re asking a lot for him in a bounce-back season. The fact that he’s dealing with an oblique injury this summer doesn’t make it any better as Hill is an easy fade for me.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks, ADP of 26
How much do we trust Sam Darnold? In reality, 2024 was really his one good season, and he did begin to fade towards the end. That also came with Justin Jefferson running down the field, along with Jordan Addison, and Kevin O’Connell on the sidelines.
Darnold now moves to Seattle with a first-time head coach and a questionable offensive line. Instead of Jefferson, his main target will now be third-year receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. After a rough rookie season, things got a lot better for Smith-Njigba last year. However, I’m thinking fantasy football managers are a little too aggressive here in committing an early third-round pick.
Trading DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for Cooper Kupp might not be the best thing for Seattle. While Smith-Njigba is now the unquestioned number one receiver, defenses will also be able to focus more on him.
Last year, Smith-Njigba did catch 100 passes, on 137 targets, but he wasn’t incredibly efficient, averaging just 11.3 yards per catch (1,130 yards). The concern, though, is that he scored just six touchdowns as he was more of a quantity play than a big play threat. Smith-Njigba was only targeted 15 times on the perimeter and had a luck luster 8.4 yard average depth of target.
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans, ADP of 65
The Tennessee Titans are a mess. One of the biggest problems for wide receivers is that they are quite team-dependent. Calvin Ridley is one of the biggest examples of that, and it places him firmly as a wide receiver bust for me.
Ridley does have back-to-back seasons of greater than 1,000 yards (1,016 and 1,017), but he’s not exactly been consistent or efficient. While the Titans did draft quarterback Cam Ward with the number one overall pick, there will be growing pains. That’s not unlike what we’ve seen from Ridley in the last two years. It is clear, though, that Ridley is the number one receiver. He will receive all of the focus from opposing defenses, but how much production can really be found?
In each of the last two seasons, Ridley has averaged just 60 yards per game. When you have only 12 touchdowns combined, there’s limited upside, at best. Ridley has caught 76 and 64 passes in the last two years, respectively, so the upside is limited in PPR leagues as well. I’m simply not sure Ridley can offer any upside or consistency.
For more great fantasy football rankings and analysis, make sure to check out the 2025 FantraxHQ Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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