Each year fantasy managers try to gain an edge. This could be through listening to podcasts, reading articles, or doing their own projections. Each fantasy player has a system that they believe works for them. At the end of the day, some things like injuries are out of fantasy player’s control. That is why doing research and gaining every other edge possible is crucial. Last year, I looked at several players that were likely to hit less home runs in 2024 than they did in 2023. All of Isaac Paredes, TJ Friedl, Ozzie Albies, Cody Bellinger, and JP Crawford saw their home runs decrease last season. All but one (Friedl) also saw massive dips in their home run rate for 2024. So, time to run it back again for 2025!
The Math Behind The Research
The math was done last year for this research, but a quick overview is never a bad thing. Home run output is one of the easier things to project. Home runs are typically reliant on a few factors. Getting the ball in the air is obviously important. However, after that, it is important to know if a ball was barreled up, and if it was pulled. Almost every home run hit in baseball comes from a barrel. Rarely do we see home runs that were not from a barrel. However, not every barrel goes for a home run.
Last year, 2023 numbers were used for this exercise. In 2023, 50.2% of all barrels hit went for a home run. Doing a quick sanity check on 2024’s numbers, this number dipped to 47.9%. Still, those numbers are relatively close. The kind of barrels that really tend to go for home runs are pulled barrels. In 2023, 68.8% of pulled barrels left the park. This number remained up at 67.3% in 2024. Using these numbers, we can take a look at which players are likely to see their home run rate regress in 2025. i.e. The players that got lucky in the home run department in 2024. Keep reading to find out who to temper expectations for ahead of next season.
2024 Home Run Decliners
Randy Arozarena – Seattle Mariners
Randy Arozarena not being on the Tampa Bay Rays feels weird. Yes, he played the second half of last season in Seattle, but it still just feels wrong. Arozarena was one of the big pieces acquired by Seattle last year, but things did not work out the way they hoped. Although Seattle did not make the playoffs, Arozarena still posted a 122 wRC+ in 54 games with the Mariners. He managed to go 20/20 for the fourth consecutive season. Ever since breaking out in 2020, Arozarena has been one of the most consistent fantasy options in all of baseball. Since 2021, here are Arozarena’s ranks in the four major counting stats fantasy managers care about:
- 21st in Home Runs
- 7th in Runs
- 14th in RBIs
- 6th in Stolen Bases
The issue for fantasy managers is that Arozarena has been outperforming his expected stats for years at this point. Each season with Arozarena feels like a roller coaster ride and you never know when the cart is going to fly off the track. Last season was especially bad as Arozarena’s xBA dropped to .219 and his xSLG dropped all the way down to .381. Unfortunately, this research is in firm agreement with the expected stats.
Arozarena saw his barrel rate drop by four percent last season but still managed to reach 20 home runs. Arozarena did increase his pull rate last year but was still very fortunate to hit as many home runs as he did. Arozarena pulled 14 barrels last season and saw 13 of them go for home runs. This 92.9% home run rate on pulled barrels is far from sustainable.
Although Arozarena put up a strong offensive output with the Mariners, his home run rate dipped considerably. For right-handed batters, Tampa Bay ranked 14th with a Statcast Park Factor of 104. Meanwhile, Seattle ranks 19th with a park factor of 99. This five percent decrease along with the expected regression to his pulled barrel home run rate should have fantasy baseball managers concerned for 2025.
Arozarena turns 30 at the end of February, and it is rare to see power increase as a player enters his 30s. Arozarena has reached 20 home runs in exactly three of the past four seasons. You would be wise to bet against another 20/20 season. Arozarena’s luck is bound to run out and there is a strong chance that happens this season.
Tyler Fitzgerald – San Francisco Giants
Tyler Fitzgerald was quite the story for a little while last season. In the Giants’ system since 2019, Fitzgerald worked his way slowly through the Minor Leagues before finally getting his chance last year. After making the Opening Day roster, Fitzgerald bounced back and forth between the Giants and Triple-A a couple of times before finally sticking. From July 9 through August 14, Fitzgerald went on a tear. He hit 13 home runs in 113 plate appearances, slashing .350/.407/.816 along the way. Fantasy managers are now dreaming about what he can do with a full-time role in 2025. Proceed with caution here.
Fitzgerald’s season can be broken down into three parts. The section above was obviously incredible. However, before that, Fitzgerald slashed just .276/.329/.395 with one homer in his first 82 plate appearances. After August 14, Fitzgerald hit just .230/.281/.311 with one home run. His incredible stretch was fun to watch, but he is far from a reliable fantasy asset.
While this article could dive into what makes Fitzgerald so risky, the purpose of this piece is to focus on home runs. Fitzgerald’s 600 PA pace during his hot stretch was 69 home runs… lol. Still, on the season as a whole Fitzgerald would have been on pace for 26 home runs. Even this is too optimistic of a projection for 2025.
To his credit, Fitzgerald did put up a barrel rate near the league average and pulled a decent amount of balls. This certainly helps his home run rate, but he was incredibly lucky last season. To start, Fitzgerald only barreled up 17 balls all of last year and saw 12 of those go for a home run. This 70.6% rate was way above the league average. Looking specifically at pulled barrels, his luck becomes even more obvious. Fitzgerald pulled 12 barrels last season. He saw all but one leave the yard. This 91.7% rate is bound to regress in 2025 as Fitzgerald’s sample size grows larger. Not to mention, Fitzgerald plays in the third least hitter-friendly park for right-handed batters. There is no way to justify his home run rate being up as high as it was.
While Fitzgerald may not technically hit fewer home runs in 2025, his home run rate is likely going to drop significantly. He only hit 15 home runs last year due to limited playing time and that is right around where a full-season projection should land. Anything over 18 home runs is expecting too much from the 27-year-old infielder. There is also a good chance his hit tool prevents him from holding onto the starting job for the whole season.
Gunnar Henderson – Baltimore Orioles
Well, this inclusion is less fun to write about. However, the numbers are the numbers and they do not lie. Gunnar Henderson has turned into one of the game’s biggest stars. On a team that is fun to root for, Henderson is the O’s best offensive player. Henderson put together an MVP-worthy season last year setting career-highs in home runs, batting average, stolen bases, runs, and RBIs. Henderson’s 155 wRC+ ranked eighth amongst all qualified hitters. His speed and power combination make him a consensus first-round pick. He showed significant improvements to his hit tool last season and is still only 23 years old. Henderson is a player many want to succeed. Undoubtedly, he will.
His inclusion on this regression list should not suggest that he is going to be a fantasy bust for 2025. No, rather just that fantasy managers should expect some regression to his home run totals this season. Entering 2024, nobody expected Henderson to hit 37 home runs. However, that is exactly what he did. Henderson hits the ball extremely hard. His average exit velocity was 92.8 mph last season and his barrel rate remained over 11%. He is one of the most talented hitters in all of baseball and the stats back that up.
However, the stats also support the idea that Henderson was very lucky in 2024. Henderson hit 53 barrels last season. He saw 34 of those go for home runs. This 64.2% is much higher than the 48% average number posted by the league. However, for a player of Henderson’s caliber, outpacing the league average is not that outlandish to believe. The real issue lies in his pulled-barrel home run rate. Last year, Henderson saw 20 of his 22 pulled barrels leave the yard. This 90.9% rate is unsustainable for even the best hitters.
Again, Henderson is going to be an elite fantasy asset. His power, speed, and youth give him an upside few others have and he should be taken in the first round. However, factor in some home run regression into your projection for him in 2025. Projecting a home run total closer to 30-32 is appropriate for next season.
Cedric Mullins – Baltimore Orioles
From one of the new Baltimore stars to a player who has been with them since the rebuilding years. Cedric Mullins burst onto the fantasy scene in 2021 with a 30/30 season seemingly out of nowhere. Since then, things have not always been smooth sailing, but Mullins still managed to put together a strong season yet again in 2024. After a slow start that had many fantasy managers panicking, Mullins turned things around at the dish. From June 19 forward, Mullins slashed .273/.358/.475 with 12 home runs and 19 stolen bases. He finished the season with 18 homers and 32 steals. He has managed to fend off the Baltimore prospects rising through the ranks but it is fair to wonder if his fortunes will take a turn for the worse in 2025.
Unlike Henderson, Mullins’ batted ball data leaves plenty to be desired. Mullins posted his lowest average exit velocity since the 2020 season while seeing over 4 mph tick off his max EV. In addition, Mullins’ barrel rate dropped to 4.8% last year. His saving grace has been a high fly ball rate which led to his 18 home runs.
On the season, Mullins only hit 17 barrels. Despite this low barrel rate, Mullins saw 12 of these leave the park. There were only seven hitters in all of baseball with 10+ home runs that saw a higher percentage of their barrels leave the yard. Sticking with the theme, Mullins was extremely fortunate on his pulled barrels. Of the 11 barrels that Mullins pulled, 10 of them left the yard. This number is certain to regress in 2025. Going even one step further with Mullins, typically around 85% of all home runs come from a barrel. Mullins was even fortunate with his non-barrels. Six of Mullins’ 18 home runs came from non-barreled balls. This 33.3% is way higher than the 15% posted by the league as a whole.
Mullins was incredibly fortunate to hit as many home runs as he did. His batted ball data is underwhelming. He has already been losing playing time against lefties and could lose additional playing time to one of the Orioles’ young prospects in 2025. Fantasy managers should expect more in the range of 12-15 home runs from Mullins in 2025 as opposed to the 18 he hit last season.
Ketel Marte – Arizona Diamondbacks
The peak of Ketel Marte’s fantasy value seemed to come back in 2019, but he took things to a new level last season. Marte built on a strong 2023 with an incredible 2024. He hit a career-high 36 home runs while batting .292. Although Marte has always been a gifted player, his ascension into the game’s top tier of second baseman was not expected in his age-30 season. While many were expecting regression from 2023, Marte got even better. Should fantasy managers expect more of the same from Marte in 2025?
The simple answer is no. Marte is a great baseball player and his power and hit tool provide a great base for fantasy players to build off of. Considering the state of the second base position, Marte is one of the top options for fantasy managers. The issue is that his 36 home runs are completely unsustainable. In the underlying numbers, there is a lot of good. Marte set a new career-high in his pull rate at 51.8%. In particular, Marte increased his pull rate on fly balls by over 7%. This is great for home run output. Marte also set new career marks in average exit velocity and barrel rate. Better batted ball data to go along with more pulled fly balls is a great sign moving forward.
Even with these positives, fantasy baseball managers should still expect to see regression in 2025. Of the 50 barrels Marte hit last season, 33 of them went for home runs. At 66%, this is much higher than the 48% league average. As with most of the hitters on this list, the story of luck is even more clear when looking at his pulled barrels. Marte pulled 27 barrels last season. While this being the 11th most in baseball is a positive sign, Marte hit 23 home runs on those 27 barrels. At a rate of 85.2%, this number is destined to see regression in 2025.
Much like Gunnar Henderson, fantasy managers should still expect Marte to be a reliable fantasy asset. However, they should not count on 36 home runs again. Projecting Marte for 27-30 home runs is much more realistic and still great output from the second base position.