One of my favorite exercises every year is to take player examples from Fantasy Football from last year and project who can be a similar player for Fantasy Football this year. I will use a qualifier that relates a last-year player to a this-year player, and then give the contextual details from there. For me, the exercise is not just an entertaining one as an analyst but one that makes me think outside of the box with a different technique for the coming season. So here are my 2026 versions of 2025 Fantasy Football performances to know for this coming season that can impact your coming drafts.
What!? Your fantasy football league wasn’t hosted on Fantrax last season!? Once you see how Fantrax stacks up to the competition, we think you’ll be singing a different tune next season.
2026 Versions of 2025 Fantasy Football Performances
The 2026 Version of 2025 Javonte Williams = David Montgomery
Qualifier: A running back who changes teams in the offseason and turns their Fantasy Football career completely around with the volume
David Montgomery has finished with over 700 rushing yards as a complementary back in Detroit the last three seasons in a row. The major touchdown upside was evident, even in this role, with 25 combined rushing touchdowns between 2023-24. Montgomery has finished two seasons with over 1,000 rushing yards, one with the Lions (2023) and one with the Bears (2020). Monty has also finished two seasons with the Bears with over 40 receptions (2021-22).
Monty signed a two-year, $16.5 million contract this offseason with the Texans. Last season, Houston had a mix of a rookie Woody Marks with veteran Nick Chubb for their backfield. Back in 2024, Joe Mixon finished with 245 rushing attempts and 36 receptions. The Texans added to their OL this offseason with the additions of Wyatt Teller, Braden Smith, and Evan Brown.
Similar to Javonte Williams, Montgomery will step into a high-volume role that will translate to being a solid Fantasy Football running back to roster in 2026.
The 2026 Version of 2025 Drake Maye = Jaxson Dart
Qualifier: A quarterback that takes a huge leap in Fantasy Football production his sophomore season
Jaxson Dart played a majority of 12 games last season. Some highlights include 5/12 games with multiple passing touchdowns, 6/12 games with 54+ rushing yards, and 7/12 games with a rushing touchdown (nine total). For Fantasy Football, Dart finished 9/12 games (75%) with 19+ Fantasy Points and 6/12 games with 23+ Fantasy Points.
For 2026, Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo return from injuries. John Harbaugh, who has experience coaching another dual-threat quarterback (Lamar Jackson), enters as the new Giants Head Coach. Isaiah Likely was signed as the new TE1, Darnell Mooney and rookie Malachi Fields were added for receiver depth, and the Giants drafted Francis Mauigoa in the first round for their OL.
A dual-threat quarterback who balled out for Fantasy Football as a rookie, with major situational positive trends, means a Fantasy Football breakout. Jaxson Dart will take a Drake Maye sophomore leap in 2026.
The 2026 Version of 2025 Davante Adams = Mike Evans
Qualifier: A veteran wide receiver switches teams and has major touchdown upside that translates for Fantasy FootballÂ
Mike Evans’ streak of 11 straight 1,000+ receiving-yard seasons was snapped in 2025 due to a hamstring strain and a broken clavicle that limited him to just eight games. Evans has finished seven seasons with 120+ targets, nine seasons with 70+ receptions, and six seasons with double-digit touchdowns. Looking at just last season, in Evans’ first game back from injury, he caught six of his 12 targets for 132 yards, proving he still has “juice”.
Evans signed a three-year, $42.4 million contract this offseason with the 49ers. Brock Purdy was on fire when healthy last season, tossing 20 touchdowns in just nine games played (2.22 per game). Purdy finished with 31 passing touchdowns back in 2023. George Kittle is coming back from a major injury, Ricky Pearsall is having season-ending surgery, and Jauan Jennings is now a Viking… which emphasizes Evans’ importance this year.
Similar to Davante Adams last season, even if the flat production numbers take any sort of dip, I can easily see Mike Evans scoring 12+ receiving touchdowns and being a monster in that department in 2026.
The 2026 Version of 2025 Matthew Stafford = Dak Prescott
Qualifier: A veteran quarterback who leads the NFL in both passing yards and passing touchdownsÂ
Dak Prescott bounced back from playing just eight games in 2024 with 4,552 passing yards (#3) and 30 passing touchdowns (#4). This came in a breakout season from newcomer George Pickens, but also in a year CeeDee Lamb missed three games and had injury impacts. 2025 was the fourth time Dak passed for 4,400+ yards, with a high of 4,902 in 2019. 2025 was also the fourth time Dak finished with 30+ passing touchdowns, with a high of 37 in 2021.
A full season of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson can mean more connection from Prescott to this trio and a leap in statistical production. 600 passing attempts were a career-high for Prescott last season, who has thrown the ball 590+ times in four straight seasons played. We should expect the volume and production to stay high in 2026.
Similar to Stafford leading the NFL in both passing categories last year as a veteran quarterback, Prescott can do the same in 2026 when pairing the volume plus his receiving talent.
The 2026 Version of 2025 Jameson Williams = Christian Watson
Qualifier: A wide receiver with a long history of time spent off the field finally plays a full season and has a career year.Â
Christian Watson has flashed receiving yard and touchdown upside through his career, but has yet to play a full season to date. Watson has played 14, nine, 15, and 10 games through four seasons due to injuries, which has truly made him a frustrating player. He finished 2024 with 21.4 yards per reception, scored five touchdowns in nine games back in 2023, and scored seven touchdowns in 14 games back in 2022. Clear upside potential through those numbers.
Watson returned in Week 8 of the 2025 season from a torn ACL, and that return displayed plenty of upside from Weeks 8-17. During this stretch, Watson ranked 12th for the position in receiving yards and tied for fifth in receiving touchdowns. He finished four weeks with over 80 receiving yards and also finished two weeks with a pair of receiving touchdowns. Watson finished 2025 fourth for the position in all of yards per route run, yards per target, and yards per reception (Playerprofiler). This resulted in a four-year, $110.5 million contract extension this offseason from Green Bay.
Similar to Jameson Williams, Watson has had issues staying on the field, but a full season in 2026 will mean finally having the career year we have waited for.
The 2026 Version of 2025 Zay Flowers = Marvin Harrison Jr.
Qualifier: An underrated wide receiver for Fantasy Football has his year three breakoutÂ
After being selected by the Cardinals with the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Marvin Harrison Jr. had a decent rookie season, catching 62 of his 116 targets for 885 yards and scoring eight touchdowns. Expectations may not have been met in the Fantasy Football world, but it was not a bad rookie season. In MHJ’s sophomore season, he was limited to just 12 games due to a mix of appendicitis surgery, heel injuries, a foot injury, and being in concussion protocol.
In this nine-game sample size of playing 60%+ of the snaps last season, Harrison finished: three of those games with double-digit targets, three of those games with 70+ receiving yards, two of those games with 96+ receiving yards, and three of those games with 18+ Fantasy Points. The touchdown total was solid for Harrison as a rookie (eight). He flashed some big games in 2025. Harrison has the elite physical traits with big-play upside, and out-produced Michael Wilson in 8/9 games played together last season for Fantasy Football.
A full season in 2026 can mean a full season of finally displaying the talent that we all bought into as a prospect, and having a year-three breakout as we saw out of Zay Flowers last year.
The 2026 Version of 2025 Travis Etienne Jr. = Saquon Barkley
Qualifier: A big Fantasy Football bounce-back for a running back after a down season, on the same team
In 2024, year one as an Eagle, Saquon Barkley finished the year with 2,005 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns, 278 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. The Eagles ended up winning a Super Bowl that season, in a year Barkley was a massive weapon. Barkley regressed in 2025 to produce 1,140 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns, and 273 receiving yards. It felt like a regression year for all of Philly.
Barkley has finished five seasons of 1,000+ rushing yards, with three of those at 1,300+ yards, and three seasons of double-digit rushing touchdowns. The hiring this offseason of a new Offensive Coordinator (Sean Mannion) and the departure of AJ Brown (WR, Patriots) can mean a shift to emphasizing Barkley like the 2024 Super Bowl-winning season.
After a down year, Barkley can have a bounce-back on the same team for 2026, similar to Fantasy Football in the way we saw a one-year shift from Etienne in Jacksonville.
The 2026 Version of 2025 Chris Olave = Garrett Wilson
Qualifier: A wide receiver has a true breakout season with a new quarterback in their systemÂ
Garrett Wilson has caught passes from all of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle, Chris Streveler, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields, and Tyrod Taylor as a Jet. Up next is Geno Smith, who is a much more competent quarterback than accredited. Smith produced over 4,200 passing yards in two of his last four seasons, with a high of 30 passing touchdowns in 2022.
Wilson played just seven games in 2025 (knee injuries), but managed four receiving touchdowns during that stretch and 14.2 Fantasy PPG. 2024 was his best season, catching 101 of his 154 targets for 1,104 receiving yards, seven touchdowns, and 14.8 Fantasy PPG. Wilson has produced over 1,000 receiving yards in all three full seasons, but we have yet to see the big year. That year will be 2026. The complementary pass-catchers of Adonai Mitchell, Kenyon Sadiq, and Omar Cooper Jr. will help not hurt Wilson.
Tyler Shough supported Chris Olave’s breakout in 2025 as the new Saints QB1, and Geno Smith will do the same to Wilson in 2026 as the new Jets QB1.
The 2026 Version of 2025 Caleb Williams = Tyler Shough
Qualifier: A quarterback has multiple playmakers added in the offseason, which is a supporting factor in his sophomore breakout season for Fantasy Football
The Saints selected Tyler Shough in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Shough started for New Orleans from Week 9 through the rest of the year. Here are some of his rookie season highlights: QB9 in total Fantasy Points while averaging 17.6 Fantasy PPG during this span. 4/9 starts (44.4%) with 270+ passing yards. 3/9 starts (33.3%) with multiple passing touchdowns. 3/9 starts (33.3%) with 32+ rushing yards. Three rushing touchdowns. 21+ Fantasy Points in 3/5 of his final games played.
Shough had a clear connection to Chris Olave in 2025. This offseason, the Saints signed David Edwards (guard), Travis Etienne Jr. (running back), and Noah Fant (tight end). In the NFL Draft, they selected Jordyn Tyson (wide receiver) in the first round, Oscar Delp (tight end) in the third round, Jeremiah Wright (guard) in the fourth round, and Bryce Lance (wide receiver) in the fourth round.
Caleb Williams had Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III as rookie additions for his sophomore year to support him, which is similar to Shough receiving supporting pieces to boost his sophomore breakout for Fantasy Football.
The 2026 Version of 2025 Kyle Pitts = Dalton Kincaid
Qualifier: A former first-round tight end finally has the long-awaited Fantasy Football season we have wantedÂ
The Bills invested a 2023 first-round draft pick into Dalton Kincaid, who finished his rookie campaign with 91 targets, 73 catches, 673 yards, and two touchdowns. Kincaid has yet to out-produce those numbers due to playing 13 and 12 games the last two seasons. In 2025, we did see some flashes despite a low snap share due to health. Through 12 games, Kincaid finished four with six targets, six games with four or more catches, six games with over 40 receiving yards, two games with over 100 receiving yards, scored five touchdowns, five weeks with 14+ Fantasy Points, and three weeks with 16+ Fantasy Points. The upside was clearly there, but derailed by health.
Being attached to Josh Allen, universally regarded as an elite quarterback, is a great thing. Even with the addition this offseason of DJ Moore to fill that WR1 vacancy. Kincaid finished top two in both yards per target and yards per reception in 2025, and more than doubled the combination of 2023 + 2024 in receiving touchdowns. Via Playerprofiler, Kincaid finished 2025 #1 for the position in yards per route run.
Kyle Pitts had his major Fantasy Football season in 2025 after a long (impatient) wait from Fantasy Football managers, which will be the same for Kincaid in 2026.
The 20226 Version of 2025 Kenny Gainwell = Rachaad White
Qualifier: An undervalued running back has a major Fantasy Football season in their new home due to their pass-catching role
As a third-round rookie in 2022 for the Buccaneers, Rachaad White caught 50 balls, which was top-12 for the position. White would then operate as a workhorse back in 2023, rushing 272 times for 990 yards, catching 64 balls for 549 yards, scoring nine touchdowns, and averaging 15.8 Fantasy PPG (#10). Bucky Irving was drafted the next season and earned a major role, but White still rushed for 613 yards, caught 51 passes for 393 yards, and scored nine touchdowns. White capped off his 2025 season with 572 rushing yards, 40 receptions for 218 receiving yards, and four touchdowns.
This offseason, White signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Commanders. The Commanders, in recent years, brought in Austin Ekeler to play a pass-catching role in their offense, which unfortunately did not work out due to a major injury. White can not only fill that role but play an even bigger one with limited backfield competition for 2026.
Kenny Gainwell played a big pass-catching role that had solid Fantasy Football impacts in his first season as a Steeler in 2025, similar to what will happen with White with the Commanders in 2026.
For more great fantasy football rankings and analysis, make sure to check out the 2026 FantraxHQ Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
The 2026 Version of 2025 Juwan Johnson = Greg Dulcich
Qualifier: A waiver-wire tight end has a big Fantasy Football season due to the lack of pass-catchers in their systemÂ
Mike McDaniel is out of Miami, and Jeff Hafley is in. Tua Tagovailoa is a Falcon, and Malik Willis is a Dolphin. Both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are gone, but in come Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell to join Malik Washington. The Dolphins also drafted rookie wide receivers Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell (recovering from injury), and Kevin Coleman Jr., along with tight end Will Kacmarek. This offense has the most question marks in the NFL and has a bottom-two wide receiver room. There is a sneaky chance that Greg Dulcich leads the team in targets this year.
Dulcich flashed as a rookie for the Broncos in 2022 with 411 yards through 10 games. In 2025, Dulcich had some small flashes through 10 games. Dulcich ended up finishing third on the team in yards, with 335. Dulcich finished five weeks with over 40 receiving yards, and in Weeks 14-18, he finished eighth for the position in yards produced. Dulcich has solid yards-after-catch abilities, has proven to be able to be efficient through the air, and can be in store for a consistent target share in Miami this season.
Similar to Juwan Johnson being under the radar in 2025 and capitalizing on high target volume, we can see Dulcich be a sneaky Fantasy asset in 2026.
The 2026 Version of 2025 Parker Washington = Jahan Dotson
Qualifier: A wide receiver who is perceived to be unimportant to their offense has some major spike weeks for Fantasy FootballÂ
Jahan Dotson was a first-round selection by the Commanders in the 2022 NFL Draft. Dotson flashed as a rookie in 2022, finishing with 523 yards and seven receiving touchdowns through just 12 games played. Dotson would never really rise from there and spent the last two seasons in Philadelphia playing as a depth piece with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. While Dotson’s time in Philly was not productive, the learning he could have absorbed from two very quality receivers could go a long way.
Dotson signed a two-year, $15 million contract with the Falcons this offseason. This is his true chance to turn his career around, as a guy I like a lot as a prospect. I am projecting Tua Tagovailoa to be the starting quarterback, who I feel is an upgrade over Michael Penix Jr. Drake London will continue as the alpha WR1, Kyle Pitts as the TE1, and Bijan Robinson as the RB1, but there is a true potential role for the WR2. I will continue to project Dotson playing that role over incoming rookie Zachariah Branch, which can create FLEX potential.
Parker Washington walked so Jahan Dotson can run in 2026.
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