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3 NBA Player Props for 1/7/23

Let’s kick off the weekend by putting some money in your pocket! We’ve got a nice little five game slate on tap tonight, which allows us to really pick and choose our favorite matchups. With prop bets, we don’t need to wait for season-long storylines to play out. Every day is a new day. Fantrax wants to help you win a bit of money, so we will be giving you NBA Player Prop Bets every week. We’ll shy away from keying in on any particular sportsbook, as we know odds vary, and so do props. We’ll focus on our projections, and allow you to find your best odds. Let’s get into today’s props.

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NBA Player Props for January 7

Jayson Tatum, OVER 27 Points:

Between getting blown out by the OKC Thunder and blowing out the Dallas Mavericks, the Boston Celtics have been aboard a bit of a roller coaster recently. Whenever there is inconsistency, data should be your north star. The data says that the Celtics lead the league in net rating, offensive rating, and are top ten in defensive rating in the league. Tonight’s opponent, the Spurs, are dead last in net rating, dead last in defense, and 27th in offense. Conventional wisdom tells us the Celtics should dominate this matchup. Tatum is their best player and likely will have the highest usage role on the team. He’s had 27 or more points in 9 of his last 10 games. Seems like a great line to target…

Lauri Markkanen OVER 28 Points:

Mr. Markkanen is becoming a prop bet favorite for us. We took him the other night when he dropped a career-high 49 points on the Rockets, and while I don’t love a “revenge game” narrative, the data supports going to the Markkanen well once again. The Jazz have a horrendous defense, so they’ll need to use their 2nd ranked offense to keep up with the Bulls’ firepower. The Bulls aren’t bad defensively, but they’re not great either, sitting at 15th in the league. They’re also 11th in the league in pace, so the Jazz should get more possessions than they’re used to, considering they play at a slightly slower pace. Further, the Bulls completely misused the Arizona product, as they tried to make him a Center (simply because he’s a seven footer), despite the fact he’s been best used as a wing, everywhere he’s been. I think a Lauri Markkanen coming off of his best scoring performance ever won’t be scared to pull the trigger against his ex. He’s scored 28 points or more in 7 of his last 10 games.

Paolo Banchero OVER 21 Points:

The Magic are terrible. I am not here to advocate otherwise. But they are an NBA team, full of NBA players. Someone is going to score, and that someone is likely to be Paolo. Even if the Magic get blown out, the rookie will still get his minutes, because he has to. Further, the Warriors (their opponent for the night) play with the fastest pace in the league and the 16th best defense in the league. There will be plenty of possessions to go around, and the Warriors won’t be playing great defense in at least half of them. That’s where Paolo comes in! He’s had 21 points or more in his last three games, and three of his last five. The odds are in our favor.

For more great analysis check out our full 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit!

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