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3 NBA Player Props for 1/21/23

We’ve got a nice seven game slate on tap to choose from. Let’s try and make a few dollars as we start the weekend! With prop bets, we don’t need to wait for season-long storylines to play out. Every day is a new day. Fantrax wants to help you win a bit of money, so we will be giving you NBA Player Prop Bets every week. We’ll shy away from keying in on any particular sportsbook, as we know odds vary, and so do props. We’ll focus on our projections, and allow you to find your best odds. Let’s get into today’s props.

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NBA Player Props for January 21

Bradley Beal, UNDER 20 Points:

You should be able to get great odds for this one. I wouldn’t place the bet unless you’re getting +250 or better, quite frankly. The thesis is as follows: Brad Beal is coming off of a nagging hamstring injury that had him miss about two weeks of basketball. Now that he’s back, the Wizards aren’t giving him his usual 35+ allotment of minutes quite yet. They did give Beal just under 30 minutes in his game vs. the Knicks, so books might feel that he’s close to full strength. On top of that, Porzingis and Kuzma are still taking up a bit of his usage, and I imagine they will continue to do so tonight vs. the Orlando Magic, as the Magic have a weak frontcourt with Wendall Carter Jr. being their best paint defender. To further boost the argument, both of these teams play at a slower than average pace, with the Magic coming in at 18th in the league and the Wizards at 19th. A reduced workload, two other bonafide scoring options, and fewer possessions than normal, equals a low output performance for Brad Beal. If you find sportsbooks thinking how I’m thinking, avoid this bet. You’ll want plus juice, as Beal can put up 20 in a quarter if his jumper is falling. This is a risk.

Mason Plumlee OVER 18 Points:

I know what you’re thinking…”I work 40+ hours per week to pay the bills. You want me to spend my hard-earned money on Mason Plumlee?!” Hear me out. I know the headline of this game will be Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, and LaMelo Ball squaring off, but quiet as kept, Mason Plumlee has turned himself into a dependable NBA big. He’s played at least 31 minutes in 7 of his last 9 games, and he’s averaging 16 points and 12 rebounds in that same stretch. We’re working off of that baseline. If you add to this that the Hawks are 16th in defense and 8th in the league in pace, it’s not so strange to make the case for Plumlee to outperform his most recent averages. The Hornets are also a top ten team in pace, so I’m expecting a bit of a track meet in this one. More possessions + average defense + high percentage shots = a strong night for Mason Plumlee. Don’t let your personal biases stop you from following the data (I’m assuming the person reading this doesn’t have a Mason Plumlee poster in their home).

Joel Embiid OVER 29 Points:

This is my easiest bet of the night. There are some players that will score regardless of their matchup. Defenses seem to be invisible. Crowds are never a factor. The only thing you have to hope for is that they are having an off night. Joel Embiid is one of those players. I could talk about how the Kings’ (Embiid’s opponent tonight) are 25th in defense. I could talk about how the Kings are 7th in pace. There’s no need to do either, really. Here’s my favorite stat: Joel Embiid has scored 29+ in 7 straight games and 11 of his last 12. Let history guide your pockets. Expect a 30-ball from Embiid tonight.

For more great analysis check out our full 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit!

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