It’s the start of a new week, which means it’s time to start (or continue) your NBA DFS winning streak tonight! We’ve got a manageable seven game slate on tap for tonight, so there will be plenty of opportunity to find value, and not force superstars into our lineups, if we don’t want to. Let’s get into it!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
NBA DFS Targets and Preview for February 28
Timberwolves (32-29) vs. Cavaliers (36-24)
Offensive Rating: 13th vs. 23rd in the league
Defensive Rating: 15th vs. 3rd in the league
Net Rating: 12th vs. 7th in the league
Pace: 3rd vs. 25th in the league
Predicted Outcome: This should be a great matchup. We’ve got a fast-paced, offensively-centric team vs. a slow-paced, defensively-centric team. I don’t pretend to know which style wins out as a general rule, but in terms of this game, I think it’s safest to just go with the best team in a situation like this. Especially when they are at home. I think the Cavs win this one.
DFS Targets: My targets this game will revolve around the Cavs who are in a pace up matchup against a middling defensive team. Goodwin is a near must play at $5200 with Garland, Rondo, and LeVert out. Osman will be too highly owned for me to deal with the fact that he’s so inconsistent. Markkanen is a good play at $6k. I wouldn’t play both Allen and Mobley in one lineup, but of the two, I think Allen is the more offensively inclined.
Pacers (21-41) vs. Magic (14-47)
Offensive Rating: 16th vs. 28th in the league
Defensive Rating: 26th vs. 21st in the league
Net Rating: 23rd vs. 28th in the league
Pace: 21st vs. 10th in the league
Predicted Outcome: I’m still not sure how all of these pieces fit together on the Pacers, but I think they certainly have more talent that the Magic right now. With the recent blockbuster trades made, you can almost throw the Pacers stats out of the window, but at the end of the day, it’s pretty hard to have worse rankings than the Magic at this point in the season. There’s a reason they’ve only won 14 games. Roll with the Pacers.
DFS Targets: Tyrese, Brogdon, Hield, and Brissett are all in great matchups. Wendall Carter Jr. and Okeke are favorites of mine, especially at $7400 and $5500. Cole Anthony at your own risk. He’s in a great matchup on paper, but Brogdon and Tyrese are great defenders. Those aren’t the types of games I want to play.
Raptors (32-27) vs. Nets (32-29)
Offensive Rating: 15th vs. 10th in the league
Defensive Rating: 14th vs. 24th in the league
Net Rating: 15th vs. 18th in the league
Pace: 26th vs. 11th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The Nets play faster, and the Raptors are too inconsistent for my blood. I’d take the Nets at home, with Kyrie playing at All-NBA levels and FVV listed as questionable. Except Kyrie isn’t playing. If FVV isn’t going to give you his threat of 25, I’m not entirely scared of Siakam as the lead dog, but he’s the best player on the floor if Kyrie is out for Brooklyn. Toronto should win this one, especially coming off of a 30 point loss to Atlanta.
DFS Targets: Siakam. Trent. Drummond. Curry. Barnes. Cam Thomas.
Bulls (39-22) vs. Heat (40-21)
Offensive Rating: 5th vs. 8th in the league
Defensive Rating: 23rd vs. 6th in the league
Net Rating: 13th vs. 6th in the league
Pace: 12th vs. 27th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The Bulls have an incredible, top five offense in the league, but the Heat will fight back with their 6th best defense in the league. The Bulls don’t play defense, and the Heat have the 8th best offense in the league. That’s a recipe for a Miami win. Especially at home.
DFS Targets: DeRozan finally broke his streak of 8 straight games with 35+ points. With a 31-point game. If you’re looking at anyone from the Bulls, you can absolutely count on Demar to hit his value. I’ll fade the rest of the Bulls though. I like Butler, Bam, and Herro on Miami. Gabe Vincent is the best value at $3600, with no Kyle Lowry.
Spurs (24-37) vs. Grizzlies (42-20)
Offensive Rating: 9th vs. 3rd in the league
Defensive Rating: 18th vs. 9th in the league
Net Rating: 16th vs. 5th in the league
Pace: 4th vs. 8th in the league
Predicted Outcome: Grizzlies. I don’t expect much from San Antonio here.
DFS Targets: I may consider fading this game as a whole, but if there’s anyone to target, it’s Murray (usage monster for the Spurs) and Ja Morant (because he’s a threat for 50+ fantasy points every night). I fear that there’s potential for a blowout here though, and the aforementioned targets are very expensive for blowout risk to be involved.
Hornets (30-31) vs. Bucks (36-25)
Offensive Rating: 11th vs. 6th in the league
Defensive Rating: 20th vs. 13th in the league
Net Rating: 17th vs. 10th in the league
Pace: 2nd vs. 6th in the league
Predicted Outcome: Both of these teams play incredibly quickly and efficiently. Where they differ is the fact that Bucks play defense. The Hornets are a bottom tercile team. I’m going to assume the team that’s at home, and 11 games over .500 will handle their business against this Hornets team that has lost some of their shine.
DFS Targets: Giannis, Middleton, and Jrue make a lot of sense. Bobby Portis didn’t see much of a price increase after his 30 point game, so he should have some exposure in lineups at $6900. Ball and Rozier are the only interests I have on the Charlotte side.
Kings (22-40) vs. Thunder (19-41)
Offensive Rating: 20th vs. 30th in the league
Defensive Rating: 29th vs. 8th in the league
Net Rating: 26th vs. 27th in the league
Pace: 7th vs. 16th in the league
Predicted Outcome: This is not a game you’re going to want to watch. That has nothing to do with DFS, though. The Thunder can’t score, but they can play some defense. The Kings can’t do anything. I expect the Thunder to win at home with Shai and Dort (if he plays) getting big usage numbers. Sabonis won’t be enough on his own.
DFS Targets: Sabonis and Fox are decent plays, but I won’t be overweight the field. I like Shai a lot in this matchup. There’s no defense to be had on the Kings side. Dort (if he plays) is incredibly cheap at $6300. Roby is interesting at $4600, but risky. Wiggins gets A LOT of minutes for being priced at $3600, but he doesn’t put up numbers, so he’s a below-average punt play for me.
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