You have to start somewhere. When beginning to prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season, the first step should always be to complete your personal rankings. This process is an ongoing cycle of following the news and staying up to date with all the latest news. But before you truly move forward, your 2023 fantasy football ranks must be complete.
While keeping in mind that there will be multiple iterations and your rankings will be an ever-evolving entity, you have to start somewhere. That somewhere is by evaluating your rankings against current ADP to find both potential values and pitfalls.
Keeping that in mind, let us take a look at three quarterback busts when looking at their current ADP (as of 7/06 via Fantrax).
ADP vs. Ranks – 3 Quarterback Overpays
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts, 117
I promise, I really am fun at parties.
The buzz surrounding Richardson cannot be missed and the rookie from Florida comes with a plethora of athletic tools. Richardson is oozing with potential, but he is still young and this is a journey. And, perhaps, most importantly, he needs to be on the field.
You can ignore Richardson’s size and speed at your own peril, and last year in the NCAA he averaged 6.3 yards per carry in 12 games which was good for 654 yards and nine touchdowns. It is difficult not to envision racking up the fantasy points from all of that production. We are missing one key piece of information here though; the rookie needs to be on the field to pick up fantasy production.
In fairness to the Colts and Richardson’s price tag, Indianapolis is willing to play the rookie if he proves to be the best option, and his talent is certainly greater than Gardner Minshew’s, but I am not sure that will be the case. The expectation is that there will be growing pains for Richardson under center after his completion percentage of just 53.9% last year.
The price tag here is too high for a player we are drafting almost as a running back out of the quarterback position. It is impossible to miss the potential, but Richardson will still need a little more seasoning. If you want to throw some upside on your bench, wait multiple rounds and grab C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota, Vikings, 97
Now I am trying to redeem myself by moving away from the young and flashy to the old and boring, and perhaps stale, Kirk Cousins.
Cousins does not add any value on the ground and gets his value strictly from his high-volume passing exploits. It should be noted that he did throw for 4,547 yards last year in his third straight season of at least 4,200 passing yards. Cousins added 29 touchdowns but that came along with 14 interceptions in what was still close to a career-best season of production.
It cannot be overlooked that Cousins has Justin Jefferson to throw the ball too, but after one of the best players in fantasy football, things do get thinner and the Vikings no longer have Dalvin Cook to dominate the run game.
Cousins is a nice option if you miss out on the top-tier quarterbacks and you want to stream him or play the matchups while drafting for upside with your other other quarterback options. He is in place to have another solid season, but we have seen his peak and he is another year older. My issue is more with the price than the player, but right now Cousins is coming off the board two or three rounds too early.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 84
If Tagovailoa stays healthy and makes it through the entire season, or at least 15 games, without issue, then this pick is doomed from the start. Unfortunately, I am not sure this will be the case though so that is why I am being cautious.
Roster management is a very important piece of fantasy football, and the higher I draft a quarterback, the less apt I am to carry a backup for the entire season. For all of the success that Tagovailoa had last season, he only played 13 games and it was hard to ignore the concussion problems that he experienced.
Tagovailoa is stronger heading into the 2023 season and he is training specifically not only to add bulk but also to avoid concussions moving forward. He certainly gets credit for the effort, and at this point, that is all you can do, but all it takes is one hit.
There are enough question marks at the running back position that I do not want to have to monitor the Injury Report for my quarterback as well, while always making sure there is another option at the ready; especially when we get into bye weeks.
A round or two later and I’m more than willing to take that chance because everything is set for a repeat with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle back, but we cannot ignore the risk that accompanies Tua Tagovailoa.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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— Fantrax (@Fantrax) July 4, 2023