We arrive at the bittersweet end of my 2023 bold prediction series. Bitter because I love the analysis and fun that goes into each hot take before the season. Sweet because Week 1 and the fantasy football season are less than SIX weeks away! In my final installment of the bold prediction series, I’m calling my shot on four players from the NFC South. I want to end on a positive note so you won’t find any negative takes on any players here. Without Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, this division is up for grabs.
I am wrapping up this series of one fantasy football-related bold prediction from each team, division by division, prior to the start of the 2023 NFL season. These predictions hopefully have the gears in your head turning. Most along the way have been positive while others, a bit more negative. The likeliness that every single one of these predictions hits is certainly not 100%. However, they should generate some buzz or cause you to think twice about each player. Just be confident in your feelings when you’re on the clock.
Be sure to check out bold predictions from the other divisions all summer long on Fantrax as well as follow me on Twitter @Colin_McT for plenty more fantasy football content.
NFC South Bold Predictions for 2023 Fantasy Football
Atlanta Falcons
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Bijan Robinson sets new record for receptions by a rookie running back
Let’s start these NFC South bold predictions with some serious heat. The hype for rookie Bijan Robinson is already high for most fantasy football fans and managers. As the eighth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, it’s easy to see why.
In three seasons at the University of Texas, Bijan had an average of 7.0 yards per touch. With 221 or more touches in each of his final two seasons, he logged 1,422 and 1,894 all-purpose yards respectively. The icing on the cake is the explosiveness and ability to get into the endzone Bijan brings to the table. He scored 35 total touches over his final 22 games with the Longhorns.
Bijan Robinson fulfills what I believe Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has been waiting for; a bell cow back. In two seasons with the Tennessee Titans, as their offensive coordinator (2019, 2020), Arthur Smith ran an offense that had Derrick Henry logging 321 and 397 total touches respectively in each of those seasons. As a result, Henry finished as RB7 and RB4 on a points-per-game basis.
Bijan Robinson should assume a three-down role in Atlanta. While he may not log as many carries as “King Henry” did in Tennessee, he will make up for it as a pass catcher out of the backfield. With Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, I don’t expect many deep shots downfield from this offense. However, the threat remains with wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts able to make such plays at any given moment. That should open up things underneath for Bijan Robinson.
The current record for receptions by a rookie running back is 91 set by Saquon Barkley in 2018. Three other active players, Alvin Kamara (81), Christian McCaffrey (80), and Najee Harris (74) find themselves in the top eight, as well in recent seasons. If Bijan falls short of the record and my bold prediction, he should still land among the aforementioned players. That alone makes him worth a top pick in 2023 redraft leagues. It feels risky to draft a rookie in the first round, but Bijan Robinson is worth it.
Carolina Panthers
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Hayden Hurst finishes as a top-12 tight end
It’s no secret that the Carolina Panthers are rebuilding their franchise from the ground up. That’s evident by the coaching staff overhaul from this off-season. Then consider the trade for the first overall pick to draft quarterback, Bryce Young. Given the turnover on this roster, there aren’t many enticing players to circle, star, and underline in the rankings for your 2023 fantasy football rosters. More specifically, rather than throw a dart at one of the Panthers’ wide receivers late in your drafts, why not select and stash tight end Hayden Hurst?
Hurst, a former first-round pick, finds himself on his fourth NFL team in six seasons. He finally gets the long-term deal signing a three-year, $21.75 million contract with the Panthers at the start of free agency. With 50 or more receptions in two of his last three seasons, Hurst is the most capable tight end for fantasy football Carolina has had since Greg Olsen.
Amongst the Panthers’ pass catchers, Hurst is the most established aside from 33-year-old wide receiver, Adam Thielen. For rookie quarterback, Bryce Young, it’s conceivable Hurst serves as a safety blanket for the young signal caller in his first season.
The bottom line is that Hayden Hurst is going undrafted in just about every format thus far. There is no risk in adding him. We know the tight end position has crazy turnover year-to-year with which players finish inside the top-12. Hurst is just as good of a bet as some other players drafted ahead of him, especially if he becomes a top red-zone target on the Panthers.
My bold prediction could get off to a hot start as soon as Week 1. The Panthers travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. Their defense allowed the second-most points per game to tight ends last season. If you’re streaming the position, consider Hurst as a low-risk, high-reward option out of the gate.
New Orleans Saints
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Kendre Miller scores the most points per game amongst Saints running backs
I’m making yet another bold prediction for another NFC South rookie running back. This is a testament to how I feel about Kendre Miller and his landing spot with the New Orleans Saints.
While the Alvin Kamara off-the-field court case is generally resolved, he could still face a suspension from the league. With that news still up in the air, and despite signing Jamaal Williams to a three-year deal in free agency, the Saints still spent a third-round pick on Kendre Miller in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Miller is 21 years old, 5’11”, and 215 pounds with quick feet. His impressive 6.7 yards per carry average on 361 collegiate carries stands out in a big way. He does have receiving upside, as well.
Both Jamaal Williams and Alvin Kamara are 28 years old. There’s plenty of reason to believe a younger back like Miller is going to get significant work at some point during the season, especially with the Saints as favorites to win the NFC South.
It’s definitely a bold prediction to claim a rookie outscores a historically successful back like Kamara and last year’s rushing touchdown leader (17), Jamaal Williams. However, Miller rushed for 17 himself last season at TCU. As far as targeting rookie running backs for the 2023 season, Miller is nowhere near the cost of Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs but could start for your fantasy roster by season’s end. He’s definitely worth a late-round pick and holding for at least a few weeks in case he breaks out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Rachaad White finishes top-five in receptions amongst running backs
Rachaad White is one of five rookie running backs to log 50 or more receptions in the last five seasons. That list includes Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris, Miles Sanders, and Nyheim Hines. Amongst all running backs in 2022, White’s 50 receptions rank 11th at the position. Notably, his former teammate, Leonard Fournette, ranks third with 73 catches of his own last season.
With Leonard Fournette still looking for a new team in free agency, White is seemingly the lead back in Tampa Bay. Behind him on the depth chart are Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Chase Edmonds, Patrick Laird, and undrafted rookie, Sean Tucker. Not only should White lead the backfield in touches, but he is the proven pass catcher out of the backfield for this coaching regime. Keeping pace with his own role with potential to command Fournette’s vacant targets is extremely valuable in PPR leagues.
Now, the offense is going to look at lot different in 2023. Tom Brady and his NFL record 733 pass attempts in a single season are no longer around. With such a high volume of passing, it’s no wonder the Buccaneers rank second in targets to the running back (147) last season. Still, the upside from White is tough to ignore, especially as an approximate sixth-round or so fantasy pick. If you decide to go wide receiver heavy earlier on in drafts, White is a great running back to grab for your roster, especially with my bold prediction in mind.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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— Fantrax (@Fantrax) July 4, 2023