Winning is what it is all about. Broken down on as simplistic a level as possible, that is what sports are all about. When it comes to the NFL, aside from fantasy football, there are many options available to add enjoyment to watching the games. One of those capitalizes on the most elementary factor; picking one winner each week. Of course, we know that it is not that easy. Far from it in fact. But that is why we are here to break some tips for survivor pool strategy heading into the 2023 NFL season.
Survivor Pool Strategy for 2023 Fantasy Football
What is a Survivor Pool?
Before we go any further, it only makes sense to break down what we are working with.
At its root, a survivor pool is exactly what it sounds like. In order to win, you have to survive each week. Every league has different rules as far as pick deadlines, pool size, and whether multiple entries are allowed, but everything else is standard. Prior to the start of that week’s action, participants must select the winner of one game. The team you select must win straight up, a tie counts as a loss, and the biggest wrinkle is that you cannot use a team more than once.
Now that we have the lay of the land, let us dig into our survivor pool strategy for the upcoming season.
Start in Las Vegas
While there are no absolutes, sportsbooks have a vested interest in the odds they set each week. Just like you, they are in for a profit, except they often have the edge as their business model clearly works.
At the start of each week, they present their take on each upcoming NFL game. While they don’t offer analysis, their leans are readily evident by following the lines. Between the point spread and the money line, it is readily apparent to see which teams have the largest edge. It goes without saying that the biggest favorites are the teams expected to win in that week. Additionally, the money line reflects the probability by which each team is expected to win.
As you begin your research, jot down the few teams that have the largest advantages. Within this grouping of three to five teams, rank them in order of your initial comfort as you want to avoid over-analysis. The objective of this exercise is to narrow down your thought process. For obvious reasons, you do need to remove the teams that you have already selected as they are no longer available to you.
We will touch on this later, but a large piece of survivor pool strategy is to take the long view. At the risk of a cliché, this is a marathon, not a sprint, as you need to get through all 17 weeks. With that being said, it is helpful to take a glance at the early Vegas lines for a week or two into the future as well.
Avoid the Chalk, to a Degree
If that sounds like a hedge, it is. I just said you need to look at the biggest favorites for the week, so then why are we going back on that?
We know that anything can happen on a weekly basis and upsets are always a thing. At the same time, we are not just competing with ourselves to select a winning team, but also with everyone else in the pool. The natural inclination, at least for a portion of the population, is going to be to pick the largest favorite. Being a little different with your selection often helps to set you apart from the competition. There are various resources across the internet that will also help with seeing where the consensus is each week.
The caveat here though is that you need to be secure and comfortable with your decision. If the only option in a particular week is the chalk, or if that is the only option you can get behind, then that should be your selection. Do not be different for the sake of being different. Remember, the objective here is still to advance.
Look Ahead
While we already took a glance at where the sportsbooks are projecting the next few weeks, it is important to look ahead in each team’s schedule. Assuming you have your early list to start with, take a look at what the future holds for each team.
I know there are some schools of thought that try and project the entire season and go weeks ahead, but that is too much for me. Injuries happen and things turn on a dime in the NFL. What we think now could be very different and easily change within two short weeks. With that being said, you do not want to evaluate whether this is the best week to take any given team. Again, this should only be done if there are multiple teams in consideration for your pick.
Factors to Consider for Survivor Pool Strategy
Now that you have set up your initial list, it is time to do some deep-dive research. The intention here is to make this a manageable process, and instead of heavily researching all 32 teams, simply do so for a select few. This is possible because you are already dialed into the action around the league, so there is already enough of a knowledge base to make an informed, initial, decision.
As you are narrowing down your choices, here are some items that I like to look at and take into account.
How Have the Teams Performed Recently?
This comes into play both with the team you are picking and their opponent. When looking at recent trends, it is not just wins and losses, but how the teams have played. Are they due for a win or a loss?
At the same time, how does this line up to the team’s expectations? This is also dependent upon the point in the season that we are in, but things often regress to the mean.
Are There Any Trends to Review?
As we get later into the season, it is important to go back to the past. If we are looking at divisional opponents, although I tend to avoid those situations if possible, have they already faced each other? In that situation, there could be a lot to learn, in either direction, about the past.
This also works if there has been a matchup of similar teams that we can use to shape our expectations. Teams have different strengths and weaknesses that can be exploited. Regardless of record, or sometimes even talent, scheme can take precedence.
Even if one team is a few games better than another, some teams simply match up differently. That can cloud our judgment and it is important to be aware of it. This comes into play either to avoid picking a specific team or to uncover a lessor-picked option.
What About Injuries and Key Performers?
For as much as we can look at what has been taking place to this point, an injury, especially at a key position, can truly change things. This is true on both sides of the ball and it can very much impact game plans and expectations.
What Impact Will Weather Have?
As we go through this process and evaluate matchups based on what see in front of us, weather is another factor that drive deviations from that.
Go Forth and Pick a Winner
Now that we have some factors to consider, all that is left is to make your pick each week. There are always many factors to consider, and it should not be taken lightly. Remember that this is not as easy at may seem, but it certainly is fun. And we what think is going to happen does not always happen.
But have fun planning to spend those winnings.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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