One week down, 17 more to go. At least that is the hope that you have survived Week 1 of the NFL season. As we embark on Week 2, there is a new batch of games to review. With regards to the picks from last week, it was a mixed bag. The results were split down the middle on both the tails (2-2) and the fades (1-1). While Week 1 is often tough, we are not here to make excuses or to look backwards. Instead, let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 2 of the NFL season. Prior to the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 2 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
After a buzzworthy summer, a lot of people were on the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. I count myself as a victim in picking them to cover the point spread, but the 49ers made a mockery of that. It didn’t matter that they had to travel cross-country for essentially a 10 AM start, as the game was over pretty quickly.
Brock Purdy was in lock step with Brandon Aiyuk and would have thrown for more than 220 yards if it was necessary. Christian McCaffrey picked up 152 yards on the ground, and the San Francisco defense was locked in. After a trip to the NFC Championship game last year, the 49ers look primed to repeat.
On the other side of this game, I was caught napping on the Rams as they sent one of my entries to the shredder. Not having Cooper Kupp apparently didn’t matter to Matthew Stafford as he was locked in with Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. Kyren Williams was strong and the ground and Aaron Donald led a strong defense. Essentially, Donald and company made Geno Smith look the way we expected him to.
As eight-point favorites, respect is still hard to come by for the Rams. It is their home opener, and while I think things will be competitive, the 49ers are still the better team. That makes them one of my survivor picks for this week, but there are others I like more.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings
After a hot start last week in New England, the Eagles ultimately made things a little uncomfortable. They did pull out the victory, and it is clear that Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the league. Jalen Hurts got off to a slow start as he finished with just 170 yards passing. Ultimately, Kenneth Gainwell was their leading rusher, but there is still a lot to be determined in their backfield.
It is a short turnaround for both teams as this game is on Thursday. Minnesota is coming off a rough home opener against Tampa Bay, and things are now a lot more difficult for Kirk Cousins. Not only does prime time generally bring out the worst in Cousins, but it is also a step up in weight class defensively.
If the Eagles shut down Justin Jefferson, or at least limit him, things will become a lot harder for Minnesota. That logic puts them on my radar amongst survivor picks, but it’s possible they have greater value later in the year. At the same time, we do need to get there first.
Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks
Heading into the season, there was a lot of surrounding the Lions. To begin the season, they delivered on that by going into Kansas City and leaving with a victory. Amon-Ra St. Brown picked up right where he left off for Detroit, and Jared Goff had another solid game. While the Lions eased Jahmyr Gibbs into action, David Montgomery also had a strong debut for Detroit.
The opposite was true for Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams went into Seattle and simply embarrassed the home team. Smith never really had a chance against Los Angeles and now he has to go against a Detroit defense that handled Patrick Mahomes. After playing on Thursday, the Lions have a few extra days to prepare for their home opener.
As Gibbs receives more touches moving forward, we should see the Lions offense become more dynamic. What makes Detroit one of my survivor picks for the week is the fact that it looked like they still had more give offensively in Week 1.
Buffalo Bills vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Yes, the Bills did lose on Monday. Yes, it was a game to forget for Josh Allen as he turned the ball over four times. But yes, they are still at the top of my list for survivor picks this week.
We have never Allen look that bad after throwing three interceptions and passing for just 236 yards and a touchdown. At the same time, the Jets do have a strong defense and it was the first game of the season. With their home opener in front of them on Sunday, a rebound is certainly in order for the Bills.
The Raiders are coming off a season opening victory in Denver, but it was not exactly the smoothest of games. This week, Las Vegas comes east for what is a 10 AM start. They are not a team that will generate fear in opponents, and it is hard to see the Bills beginning the season 0-2.
Games to Fade
New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys
No, I am have not gone off the deep end. Yes, there might be some green and white optimism here, but stick with me here.
I did see the Cowboys defeat the New York Giants in Week 1 by the score of 40-0, but what really happened there? We know that the weather was terrible and the Giants offensive line was even worse. Quite simply, Daniel Jones was unable to do anything and the Cowboys took advantage. Conversely, Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense really did not show much of anything. Granted they didn’t have to, but it didn’t give the Jets anything to fear.
And we know all about how strong the Jets defense is. The problem though, is that we get Zach Wilson under center for the Jets and not Aaron Rodgers. What is even worse though, is New York’s offensive line and it is questionable if Wilson will have much time to throw.
We have seen the point spread jump by at least six points with Rodgers being out. Between Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook leading the running game and a strong defense, I wouldn’t count the Jets out.
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals
There is no way the Giants are as bad as they showed on Sunday. It is impossible not to expect a bounce-back effort from New York. This week, they travel to Arizona to face a Cardinals team that came close to beating Washington last week.
The thought process, is that this is more on Washington than Arizona. New York’s defense was not too bad against the Cowboys, and they should have a strong effort against Joshua Dobbs. Quite simply, the Cardinals offense is not going to generate much fear in opponents.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Baltimore, Detroit
Line 2
Washington, Buffalo