With another week down, let’s keep things going. We have another week of survivor picks on tap for you, so follow along. Let’s continue to sweat along with our survivor picks as we progress through the season. This was yet another interesting week with San Francisco and Buffalo losing. That meant our picks went 2-2. We do have a larger population to work with this week as we get a break from bye weeks.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 8 of the NFL season. Prior to the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 8 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
It is a divisional game and the Broncos did win last week, but I’m not sure it matters here. It was just the second victory of the season for Denver in what has been another trying year for Russell Wilson and company. Kansas City is coming off their own divisional victory as they defeated the Chargers to move to 6-1.
For all that we are currently hearing about Travis Kelce in the gossip pages, we have to give credit to the tight end for his success this season, Kelce is coming off a monster game against the Chargers and that should continue against a Denver team that struggles defensively. Playing in Denver shouldn’t impact the Chiefs as Patrick Mahomes is rolling once again.
The Broncos are last in the league with 440 yards allowed per game. That is also translating to the scoreboard with Denver allowing 31 points per game which is the second-highest total in the league. With Kansas City picking up 404 yards per game offensively while averaging 25 points per game, it seems inevitable what direction this game will go in. The Chiefs are also far from one-dimensional as their defense is giving up just 15 points per game.
Detroit Lions vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Last week was a game to forget for the Lions as they were simply overmatched in Baltimore. The good thing heading into this week’s matchup though is that things didn’t look much better for the Raiders. The difference though is that the Raiders faced an unknown backup quarterback while Detroit was dealing with Lamar Jackson.
It is a second straight road game for the Raiders and I’m not sure things will look much better. While it remains to be seen who will be under center for Las Vegas, it’s ultimately not going to matter if they can’t stop Jared Goff and company. A big problem for the Raiders this season has been the inability to establish the run game. So far this year, Josh Jacobs is averaging just under three yards per carry and that limits what they can do offensively. With 68.6 rushing yards per game, the Raiders are ranked last in the league while the Lions allow the second fewest rushing yards.
This figures to be another mismatch for the Raiders in a bounce-back situation for the Lions as one of our survivor picks.
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
On a week-to-week basis, it is truly impossible to know what is going to happen on the field. That was the case as the Patriots defeated the Bills last week in a situation that, at least for one week, changed the narrative in New England. The problem though, is that a trip to Miami this week will seemingly put a stop to that momentum.
Mac Jones has been much maligned this season, and it is difficult to expect him to keep pace with Tua Tagovailoa. The latter has just over 600 more passing yards so far this season than his Patriots counterpart with 15 passing touchdowns compared to seven. When it comes to the running game, the stark differences continue with Raheem Mostert averaging 5.64 yards per carry (474 yards) compared to Rhamondre Stevenson at 3.08 yards per carry (268 yards).
We won’t even compare leading receivers as that is simply unfair. Tyreek Hill needs just 98 yards to hit the 1,000-yard mark for the season this week and should get there (monitor his injury status). After losing in Philadelphia this past Sunday, the expectation is that Miami will be looking to redeem themselves. The Dolphins’ offense is ranked first across the league in multiple categories and while the Patriots have a solid defense, this will ultimately prove to be too much for them.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Chicago Bears
We must begin with the disclaimer that this is not the favorite pick of the week. But here we are. Remember, once a team is taken, we can no longer use them, and in Line 1, the Chargers are the only team left. With that being said, they are favored by nine points so there is no shame in making them one of our survivor picks.
Los Angeles is favored by nine points in primetime and Tyson Bagent will find things to be more difficult than last week’s victory against the Raiders. A healthy Austin Ekeler matters here for the dynamic Chargers’ offense who are looking to recover from a two-touchdown loss in Kansas City.
At this point in the season, at 2-5, Sunday’s game is pretty close to being a must-win for the Chargers. The Chargers defense has not been good this year. However, the thought process here is that Bagent will not be strong enough to take advantage of it.
Games to Fade
Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It is a quick turnaround for Buffalo after a surprising loss in New England on Sunday. Tampa Bay also lost, at home to Atlanta, but anything can happen in short week. In most situations, you likely have already used Buffalo at this point, however, if not, I would save them for another week.
The Bills and Josh Allen have not looked sharp as of late, and with both offenses struggling, this will turn into a close game. Tampa is sixth in the league with 17.3 points allowed per game while the Bills are fifth at 16.9. Buffalo’s defense has also been dealing with some critical injuries which impacts multiple layers of their defense. Losing Matt Milano and Tre’davious White has been tough for the Bills to overcome as well.
Until we see Buffalo bounce back in a big way, I’m staying away from them with my survivor picks.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp is back in action and has not missed a beat. We are seeing the Rams’ passing attack hum along to this point. Puka Nacua hasn’t slowed down upon Kupp’s return. Matthew Stafford is also taking advantage of the situation with 1,908 passing yards. That far surpasses Dak Prescott’s 1,333 passing yards.
Dallas has not looked especially sharp this season and missing Trevon Diggs in the secondary certainly makes a difference. This is very much a winnable game. At the same time, it’s hard to go against a veteran quarterback with two strong receiving options.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Divisional games are always tough. When that game comes on the road, it is only natural for it to give you a little more pause. By the same token, the Eagles at 6-1 are one of the best teams in the league. Fading them in any given week might be odd. However, nothing about this season has been normal.
The Commanders do have a strong defensive line which could make it difficult for Jalen Hurts to find some rhythm. There was also some concern about Hurts and his knee towards the end of last week’s game. That gives us something to keep an eye on for limited mobility. Following a primetime victory over the Dolphins and ahead of a matchup against Dallas, it’s possible that the Eagles overlook Washington.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Washington, Buffalo, San Francisco, Kansas City, Detroit, Miami, Seattle, Los Angeles Chargers
Line 2
Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City, Miami
Line 3
Kansas City
Line 4
Detroit
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